Belmont Stakes 2014: Keys to Winning The Race
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Every year race fans debate the running
styles of the Belmont Stakes. Which manner - front runner, pace presser, mid-pack runner or
come from behind runner - is the most favorable for winning the grueling 1 ½
mile Test of Champions? How do the favorites stack up? Is the third leg of the Triple Crown a decent
betting race or should you save your money? To answer those questions and more, I researched the last fourteen editions
of the Belmont Stakes.
Running
Style:
I discovered that half of the last fourteen
Belmont Stakes winners raced in fifth place early on, either between horses or
in the clear on the outside. Only three
took the rail trip. They started gearing
up right around the 3/8 pole and were in full running mode by the time they hit
1 ¼ miles.
Four of the Belmont Stakes winners were
pace pressers, sitting second or third early. They made their move a little
later, right around the 1 ¼ mile pole.
Surprisingly, only two colts could be considered late runners, they sat in
eighth or farther back. They moved up
gradually and had the lead after 1 ¼ miles.
Overall, eight of fourteen Belmont victors had the lead after 1 ¼ miles.
Favorites:
The Belmont Stakes is a very lucrative betting
opportunity. How lucrative? Only four winners paid single digits to
win. The lowest win pay-out was $4.30
when Afleet Alex demolished the field as the betting favorite. Favorites do not fare well in the Belmont
Stakes. Only two post time favorites in
the last fourteen years won and only five favorites hit the board. In
2002, Savara paid a whopping $142.50 to his backers. Not counting that return or the single digit
returns, the average payout over nine years was $39. The lowest trifecta was $67.50, in a six
horse field in 2003.
So how hard is it to pick the winner? Eight of fourteen Belmont heroes (and
heroine) were first or second in their previous start. The other six Belmont
winners finished off of the board in their previous start – all in the Kentucky
Derby. Four Belmont winners prepped in a
race other than the Triple Crown – and either won or placed. Two prepped at
Pimlico; one in the Sir Barton, the other in the Federico Tesio. Only two Preakness winners also won the Belmont
Stakes.
How do Kentucky Derby winners fare in the
Belmont? Not that great. Five Derby
winners never made it to Belmont. Of the
remaining nine, the best finish was by Smarty Jones, who was second. Four were
third and three were off of the board.
Jockeys:
In previous years, a big fuss was made
about jockeys unfamiliar with the Belmont track, and rightly so. The “Big Sandy” is the only track in America
with a 1 ½ mile circumference, so it’s easy to get lost. Unlike the typical mile track, Belmont has a ½
mile pole at the top of the last turn. In
the Belmont, a jockey not familiar with the huge track can move their horse
prematurely, thinking the ½ mile pole is really the 3/8 pole. Good examples are the rides given to Smarty
Jones in 2004, whose jockey Stewart Elliott
misjudged the poles and sent the colt to the front before the 3/8 pole, thus
losing all chances of a successful Triple Crown bid. In
2009, Calvin
Borel also made his move at the 3/8 pole with Mine That Bird. Neither colt couldn't
sustain his bid. Neither jockey rode
regularly at Belmont Park; however the rider of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone, Edgar Prado,
and Kent
Desormeaux, pilot of 2009 Belmont Champ Summer Bird, were fixtures on the
New York circuit.
Only four jockeys since 2000 who won the
Belmont Stakes did so in their first attempt in the race. Jeremy Rose, Fernando Jara,
Alan Garcia
and Jose
Valdivia, Jr. timed it perfectly to win the trophy. Of those, only Rose had not ridden at the Big
Sandy before the Belmont Stakes, although he did have mounts earlier in the day
to become familiar with the track lay-out. Good news for Chrome lovers. Victor Espinoza
is no stranger to New York and finished second in the 2001 Belmont Stakes with
A.P. Valentine.
Preakness
Stakes:
As of this writing, four Preakness contenders
are scheduled to come back in the Belmont Stakes. So, the Preakness Stakes is a key prep,
right? For the winners, yes, the rest?
Not so much.
Out of the 42 horses that hit the board in
the Preakness, 18 didn’t bother showing up for the Belmont. Eight Preakness winners entered the Belmont
Stakes. Two won, three finished second or third and the remaining three were
off of the board, although War Emblem and Big Brown had excuses.
15 runner-ups in the Preakness also raced
in the Belmont. Three who were second in
the Preakness hit the board in the Belmont while none of the Preakness show
finishers hit the board in the Belmont Stakes.
So, Ride
On Curlin has a shot, but don’t waste your money on Social Inclusion
or Kid Cruz.
Below are brief comments and running styles
on the winners of the last fourteen Belmont Stakes.
So
what can we learn from this decade’s Belmont Stakes? The winner generally sits in fifth place and
makes his move around the turn. He’s usually in front after 1 ¼ miles. His jockey is familiar with the track and the
Belmont Stakes isn’t his first rodeo.
If
the Belmont winner didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby, he won or placed in his
Belmont prep, which bodes well for Tonalist and Commissioner,
the one-two finishers in the Peter Pan Stakes.
If
the Belmont hero’s last start was in the Kentucky Derby, he normally finished
off of the board in that race. Good news
for Samraat, Wicked Strong, Intense Holiday
and Candy Boy.
Winners
of the Preakness generally hit the board in the Belmont Stakes. Half of the Preakness runner-ups also
finished in the money in the Belmont.
Toss the horses that finished third in the Preakness and contested the
Belmont. None hit the board, although two of eight finished fourth.
The
payout is often generous, and never pays less than $4, making the Belmont an
excellent betting race, especially the exotics. Now that you know what to look
for, finding the Belmont Stakes winner should be easy, right?
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