Alcibiades Stakes - Fall Fashion at Keeneland

Photo: NYRA Photo
 
The Alcibiades Stakes is the highlight of Keeneland’s opening day. The Grade 1 contest is one of the last prep races scheduled for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The last filly to pull off wins in both the Alcibiades and BC Fillies was Silverbulletday in 1998. Since Keeneland installed Polytrack in 2007, only one Breeders’ Cup winner, 2009’s She Be Wild, prepped in the Alcibiades. Wayne Lukas has won this race six times. He brought Take Charge Brandi to this year’s contest.
 
 
Not surprisingly, the last seven winners of Alcibiades spent the rest of their careers on Polytrack or turf. This year sees the return of dirt racing at Keeneland and with it, hopes for the race to produce another Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner.  Thirteen promising youngsters have entered the 1 1/16 mile event, led by the untested stakes winner Fashion Alert.  Five of the fillies were previously mentioned on The Kiddie List.  Let’s review the field. 
 
 
 
FASHION ALERT (Old Fashioned - Titan Queen, by Tiznow) is the only graded stakes winner in the field. Fashion Alert skipped the maiden races and went straight for the blacktype. The daughter won the Astoria Stakes by 4 ¾ lengths. For an encore, Schuylerville Stakes, the Todd Pletcher - trained filly drew off to a 1 ½ length victory over the very well-bred Take Charge Brandi. Fashion Alert is a half-sister to Santa Ynez Stakes (G-2) winner RENE’S TITAN.  Their dam is a full sister to Roman's Run, who isUAE stakes placed, plus she’s a half to G-2 winner BIG BAND SOUND and stakes winner SILVER PROSPECTOR.  Fashion Alert has the pedigree to successfully stretch out to 1 1/16 miles. She breezed a second to last pre-race bullet at Saratoga.  
 
 
 
MILEHIGH BUTTERFLY (Sky Mesa - Hummingbird Kiss, by Smart Strike) broke from the outside and made a four wide move in the Pocahontas, but couldn’t sustain her bid. She finished 2 ½ lengths behind second place Pangburn, who she’ll face in the Alcibiades.  Milehigh Butterfly has plenty of blacktype in her distaff line. She’s a half to the stakes placed sprinter Kiss in the Forest. Their unraced dam Hummingbird Kiss is a full sister to the stakes placed runners Red Strike and Strike Red, plus a G-3 turf placed runner. Milehigh Butterfly’s second dam Hummingbird Red is multiple stakes placed over the lawn and she’s a half sister to Canadian Champion Sprinter SOARING FREE.   Milehigh Butterfly’s third dam is a stakes winner.  Fourth dam is the stakes winner and blue hen, LOUDRANGLE, whose descendants include three Canadian Champions. Milehigh Butterfly’s speed figures have improved in every start and she draws closer to the rail.
 
 
SLAVA (Sharp Humor - Splendorella, by Deputy Minister) has been beaten a combined 13+ lengths in allowance races by Naval Command and Paige.   Slava is the second of her dam’s foals to race. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations of her distaff family.
 
 
 
CALAMITY KATE (Yes It's True - Justmeandmyshadow, by Tiznow) has improved in each of her three starts and out-classed maidens by six lengths when stretching out to a mile. Her dam raced only once and she’s a half sister to Champagne Stakes winner OFFICER. Calamity Kate’s second and third dams are stakes winners. Trainer Kelly Breen is 20% with shippers.
 
 
 
TAYLOR S (Medaglia d'Oro - Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi) is one of four fillies who will attempt to win a Grade 1 race in only their second start. She beat maidens by 3 ¾ lengths at Churchill just 19 days ago.   Taylor S’s dam Miss Macy Sue earned six stakes victories as a sprinter and hit the board in 19 of 25 starts. She’s inbred 3 x 4 to the Champion Sprinter and blue Hen Ta Wee. Consequently, Miss Macy Sue is the most accomplished runner in three generations. Taylor S posted a strong 4F pre-race breeze. Dale Romans hits with 21% of his charges stretching out.
 
 
 
NAVAL COMMAND (Midshipman - Lucky Flyer, by Fusaichi Pegasus) has won or placed in every start, including a desperate neck victory in the Happy Ticket Stakes in her latest start. Naval Command is a half sister to English stakes winner YEAGER (Medaglia d'Oro).  Their second dam BEAUTIFUL CRAZY won the Hawthorne Oaks and fourth dam is Kentucky Oaks heroine LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY.   Naval Command may have plenty of company on the front end and she may find 1 1/16 miles at the top of her distance range.
 
 
 
INNOVATIVE IDEA (Bernardini - Golden Velvet, by Seeking the Gold) galloped to a 4 ½ length victory over the Arlington Polytrack in her debut.  Her pedigree has plenty of dirt attributes and she should improve over the surface.  Innovative Idea’s dam won the 1 1/8 miles Sixty Sails (G-3) and is G-1 placed. GOLDEN VELVET is a half sister to Hopeful Stakes (G-1) winner and sire SKY MESA. Innovative Idea’s second dam CARESS is a multiple graded stakes winner and a full sister to the stakes winning sire BERNSTEIN.  Trainer Eoin Harty has a 6% win rate with first time routers.
 
 
 
PANGBURN (Congrats - It's True Love by Yes It's True) broke awkwardly in the Pocahontas, but made up ground to finish second, beating the third place finisher by over two lengths.  Pangburn is the first blacktype earner for her stakes winning dam.  It's True Love is a half to the multiple stakes winning sprinter KAYS AND JAYS. Pangburn showed speed figure improvement in her last race and will likely sit off the pace.
 
 
 
TOP DECILE (Congrats - Sequoia Queen, by Forestry) prevailed in a speed duel in her debut to win by a length. Her second dam BAREFOOT DYANA is a multiple stakes winner, and owns the only blacktype in two generations of the female family.  Top Decile recorded an excellent speed  figure, but her post-race works are slow. 
 
 
 
PAIGE (Sky Mesa - Perfect Story, by Tale of the Cat)  has won her last two starts, including a 3 ½ length victory over Slava.  Paige is a half sister to G-3 winning sprinter STREET STORY and to multiple graded stakes placed Medjool.  Their dam is a half sister to Champion and sire POINT GIVEN.  Paige has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding 4x4 to Narrate through full sisters PREACH (dam of Pulipt, Sky Mesa’s sire) and Yarn (dam of Tale of the Cat, Paige’s damsire).  Trainer Donnie Von Hemmel has a 20% win rate with graded stakes.
 
 
 
PEACE AND WAR (War Front - More Oats Please, by Smart Strike) makes her first appearance in the U.S. and over the dirt.  She was second in an allowance race in England in August. It’s hard to say whether the filly will take to the dirt.  She has dirt attributes in her pedigree and her dam is a winner over turf and dirt. More Oats Please is a half sister to the sprinting stakes veteran MISS VALENTINE. Peace and War’s second and third dams are stakes winners.  Peace and War recorded an average breeze over the Keeneland track.  It appears that she’s the first runner in the U.S. for trainer Olly Stevens.
 
 
TAKE CHARGE BRANDI (Giant's Causeway - Charming, by Seeking the Gold) has been butting heads all summer with the best fillies on the east coast. She was on the losing end to Fashion Alert, Angela Renee, Pangburn and Milehigh Butterfly.  To be fair, Take Charge Brandi was four wide in her last two starts, despite drawing inside posts.  She gets a jock switch to Luis Saez.  He and trainer Wayne Lukas have teamed for a dismal 0-13 record.  Take Charge Brandi’s dam is a half sister to Florida Derby winner TAKE CHARGE INDY and multiple G-1 winner WILL TAKE CHARGE. The second dam is multiple stakes winner, TAKE CHARGE LADY, who is rapidly approaching blue hen status.  Take Charge Brandi should appreciate running two turns. By Giant’s Causeway, the youngster might also take to the turf. Her half brother Siete C (Unbridled’s Song) was first or second in in six starts over the lawn. Take Charge Brandi has been breezing very well in the mornings. The filly has a good pedigree for the lawn and we may see her switch surfaces if she’s unplaced here.
 
 
 
GAP YEAR (Bernardini - Dubai Escapade, by Awesome Again) totally missed the break in her debut, went six wide and still made up ground to finish third, beaten a neck in a photo finish over a sloppy Saratoga track.  It was eight lengths back to the fourth place finisher.  Gap Year is the second foal out of a G-1 winning sprinter. DUBAI ESCAPADE is a half sister to G-1 winner MADCAP ESCAPADE, the dam of G-1 winner MI SUENO. The second dam SASSY PANTS is also a stakes winner. Gap Year has a fast/slow/fast breeze pattern and recorded a pre-race bullet.
 
 
SELECTIONS:
The last five winners of the Alcibiades prepped on the Poly.  Toss those stats out the window, it’s a whole new race-track.   There’s a ton of speed in the Alcibiades.  Six of the fillies like to run on or pressing the lead. A few can sit farther back, but only three have shown that they will sit mid-pack or farther back.
 
 
The class of the field is FASHION ALERT.  She’s the likely favorite and trained by Pletcher.  Yes, it’s boring to pick the favorite, but she really hasn’t been tested.  If Keeneland’s new dirt surface is anything like the old dirt surface and follows tradition, speed on the rail will rule.  So, if Fashion Alert stubs a hoof or gets involved in a sizzling speed duel, who can step up? PANGBURN is the obvious choice. She’s graded stakes placed at 1 1/16 miles and does her best work from off of the pace. The drawback?  She’s getting her third jock in as many starts and trainer McPeek is 9% wins with graded stakes.  CALAMITY KATE won at a mile and earned the highest late pace speed figure in the field. She has three races under her girth and a good work pattern. She could sit a good trip from fourth place.
 
 
Take a closer look at a couple of morning line long-shots.  GAP YEAR is stuck on the outside again, but she really showed her class in a wild debut and earned the second highest late pace speed figure in the field. She also worked a pre-race bullet and could get a nice stalking trip.   NAVAL COMMAND is one race from a perfect record. She’s an experienced traveler and Bill Kaplan doesn’t ship just to take in new scenery, although I couldn’t fault him for wanting to visit Keeneland in the fall.  If she gets the jump on Fashion Alert, Naval Command could set sail for the wire and be impossible to catch.
 
#1  FASHION ALERT
#4  CALAMITY KATE
#13  GAP YEAR
#6  NAVAL COMMAND – longshot pick
 

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