Analysis: Handicapping Churchill Downs' Bashford Manor Stakes
Saturday's Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes marks the first opportunity for 2-year-old colts to pick up graded blacktype earnings. Typical of early season juvenile stakes races, distance-challenged sprinters are prevalent in the six-furlong event at Churchill Downs.
This year, a competitive full field of 13 colts and geldings will contest the Bashford Manor. The majority have sprinter/miler pedigrees, and may not be around for a shot at the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
But you never know, as 2016’s Bashford Manor hero, Classic Empire, went on to become champion 2-year-old and factored throughout the Triple Crown trail.
Main Contenders
Steve Asmussen is seeking his fifth Bashford Manor Stakes trophy. He picked up his last one in 2014 with Cinco Charlie. This year, Asmussen sends out a pair of 2-year-olds. Sir Truebadour is a half brother to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint hero Regally Ready. The colt was an easy winner over a sloppy Churchill track in his debut but didn’t care for the fast Belmont surface in the Tremont Stakes. His morning works are so-so, and he may eventually wind up on the turf.
Asmussen’s other runner, Cat Addiction, has a precocious pedigree, but he’s stuck in post 12. The half brother to Snapper Sinclair (placed in Risen Star & Lecomte) won his five-furlong debut by 2 1/4 lengths from off the pace in 1:00 flat over a sloppy track. Cat Addiction’s breezes have been fairly slow.
Weiland captured the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes by a bare head after fighting through the stretch. The son of Yes It’s True has been breezing sharply, including a second to last bullet three furlongs.
Doug O'Neill shipped last out maiden winner Toothless Wonder from Santa Anita. The bay son of Street Boss pressed the pace and took over in the shadow of the wire when asked. The colt’s half brother, The Money Monster, is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter. The drawback for Toothless Wonder is that he’s stuck in post 11.
Norm Casse-trained Tales of Chaucer ships in from Belmont, where he won his five-furlong debut in a sharp: 58.45, and has returned to post two sharp breezes, indicating he’s ready to take a step forward. He hails from a precocious family; his half-siblings Filibustin and Indy’s Lady won multiple restricted stakes as juveniles.
Shanghaied Roo gets to take the short way around the track. The son of Shanghai Bobby zipped four furlongs in :52.20 to win his April debut by 2 1/4 lengths. His trainer, Bret Calhoun, gave the colt a steady work pattern of five-furlong breezes and the colt should be ready to go.
Selections
Three of the last five Bashford Manor Stakes heroes drag raced out of the gate and either pressed the pace or wired the field. Four of the last five winners were local boys, er, colts and last raced at Churchill. All five won their previous start.
Let’s go with Weiland on top. He’s showing signs that he’ll move forward off his last start, and while class is subjective at this early stage, he’s already beaten experienced competition in the Kentucky Juvenile. Plus, he’s an attractive 6-1 morning line.
#2 WEILAND (6-1)
#11 TOOTHLESS WONDER (7-2)
#1 SHANGHAIED ROO (9-2)
#9 TALES OF CHAUCER (4-1)