Chandelier Stakes 2017: Odds and Analysis
The Chandelier Stakes (G1), formerly known as the Oak Leaf Stakes, is a key qualifying race for the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Since 2000, four fabulous fillies have swept both races. The latest was Songbird, who captured division honors as a two and a three-year-old. Fillies who have placed in the Chandelier have been competitive in the Juvenile Fillies. Last year, Champagne Room fizzled in the Chandelier but popped at odds of 33-1 in the Breeders’ Cup.
This year, a field of eight youngsters will vie for a chance to enter the winner’s circle. All will be tested for the first time at 1 1/16 miles, and only Dancing Belle has the benefit of a race over the main Santa Anita track.
Let’s take a closer look at the lineup.
The undefeated Moonshine Memories (2-1) (Malibu Moon – Unenchantedevening by Unbridled's Song) wired the field in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in her last outing. Her two-length lead in the stretch dwindled to just a half-length, while Piedi Bianchi gained with every stride. The seven-furlong contest was a fast early, slow late event; Moonshine Memories got her final furlong in a poky 13.71.
The daughter of Malibu Moon has the pedigree to stretch out, but there’s plenty of speed in her distaff line. Her dam is a half-sister to Champion Juvenile Favorite Trick.
Will Moonshine Memories use her sharp early speed to tire her opponents or learn to sit off the pace? Only trainer Simon Callaghan and jockey Flavien Prat know for sure. We had a hint of what to expect during Moonshine Memories pre-race work at Santa Anita. Moonshine Memories was passed early by two horses breezing to her inside. The bay filly jumped quickly into the bridle and ran down the competition under her own steam, recording 5F in :59.80, and galloping out ahead. Her strong work proved two things; she can sit behind the pace if asked, and she has the drive to target and pass other horses. Moonshine Memories has the pedigree to enjoy the extra distance and is the class of the field.
Piedi Bianchi’s final work simulated race-like conditions. She and stablemate Dr. Ann were galloping along and were quickly passed by John Shirreffs' Highland High and Tea for Tam. Piedi Bianchi targeted the Shirreffs' charges. The gray filly drafted behind the pair under a hold then swung three wide on the turn. Piedi Bianchi wore down a determined Highland High (unraced 3YO filly) and galloped out in front, timed in 1:01.00 for five furlongs, the best of the foursome.
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Dancing Belle (10-1) (First Samurai - London Mist, by Afleet Alex) is the only stalker in the Chandelier and the only filly with race experience at Santa Anita. She’s also one of two maidens. The speed-favoring track surfaces aren’t kind to horses attempting to make up ground in the stretch. Dancing Belle has kept good company. She was second in the Sorrento Stakes (G2), besting Terra’s Angel by 4 1/2 lengths. Dancing Belle was three to four wide the entire way in the Del Mar Debutante and didn’t have much left in the stretch. The Keith Desormeaux trainee placed fourth.
Dancing Belle’s dam is a half-sister to Tiger Moth, this year’s heroine of the one-mile Groupie Doll Stakes (G3) and to Last Gunfighter, a multiple graded stakes winner from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles. His victories include the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) and Pimlico Special (G3). Dancing Belle draws the rail in the Chandelier, so perhaps jockey Kent Desormeaux can work out a favorable ground-saving trip.
Dancing Belle breezed 6F in 1:14.40 in her final work, pairing up with Stylitude. The big bay filly tracked her stablemate and drew off in a powerful gallop while in hand.
Bob Baffert owns ten Chandelier Stakes trophies, including the 2012, 2013, and 2016 editions. He has two chances this year to pick up another.
Although she cost $425,000 as a two-year-old in training, Just A Smidge has no blacktype in the first two generations of her distaff line. Her third dam won four of five starts, including the Bay Meadows Oaks (G3), and owns the only graded blacktype in four distaff generations.
Will Just a Smidge rebound in the Chandelier? The outside post doesn’t do her any favors. Mike Smith will have to make the decision to keep the pretty gray filly wide again, expend energy to press the pace or to drop back and hope for a spot closer to the rail.
Just a Smidge worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.20 at Santa Anita for her Chandelier tune-up. The gray filly was rank early under a tight hold and eager to catch three horses in front of her. Around the far turn, she had her chance, and went three wide, while gaining ground, still under a hold. She was pushed to gallop out in front past the wire. Just a Smidge has the typical “Tapit build,” of a compact gray. She has high knee action and doesn’t lower her head to stretch out. Although she has a competitive nature, she also inherited her damsire’s attitude. Just a Smidge didn’t relax at any point during her breeze and refused to settle despite her rider’s stranglehold.
Baffert’s other charge Alluring Star (4-1) (Exchange Rate - Spring Jump, by Jump Start) captured her 6 1/2 furlong debut the day after the Debutante Stakes. Fastest out of the gate, Alluring Star set a fast, but comfortable pace. She repelled a challenge in the stretch and opened up to win by 2 1/2 lengths. The second-place filly was 5 3/4 lengths in front of the third-place finisher. The bay filly was an $850,000 two-year-old in training purchase. Her dam placed in two minor stakes and earned $121,883 in 28 starts. She owns the only blacktype in two distaff generations, and the third generation contains a few listed earners. Alluring Star has recorded swift morning works for her stakes debut. No video is available for her final breeze.
Super Good, Terra’s Angel, and Holy Diver are making the switch to dirt. The most promising of the trio is Super Good.
Super Good (15-1) (Super Saver - Skyward Exchange, by Exchange Rate) showed her tenacity in an exciting blanket finish in her debut at a mile on turf. She led in the stretch to be bested only a neck and placed a head in front of the third-place finisher. She has a modest distaff line, but all four of Super Good’s half-siblings showed ability over various surfaces. The steel gray filly will be making her first start under the care of Matthew Chew. She showed good form in two breezes over the Santa Anita dirt. Super Good worked five furlongs in 1:00.20 in her pre-race tune-up. She was relaxed the entire time, ears flopping around, running along under her own power without being restrained or pushed. Super Good changed leads smoothly on her own and had good extension over the dirt.
Terra’s Angel (12-1) (Drosselmeyer - Vindicated Angel, by Vindication) was the long shot winner of the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf on closing day. Previously, she placed a distant third in the Sorrento Stakes. Dallas Keen’s charge hails from a very nice distaff line. Her half-siblings are proven over multiple surfaces. Her dam is a half-sister to listed stakes-winning juvenile Mi Chiamano Mimi. The second dam Fantasy Angel is a Grade 3 stakes-winning miler. The third generation includes Terra Promessa, the 7 1/2 length winner of the Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3) earlier this year. Terra’s Angel hasn’t shown the same ability over dirt as she has turf.
In her first start in California, Holy Diver (30-1) (Hat Trick (JPN) - Wild Bubbles, by Wild Event) faced Terra’s Angel in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. It was a tall order, but the filly was beaten by only two lengths. Previously, she won sprinting over the Gulfstream Park turf. In Holy Diver’s sole dirt attempt, the winner was back in the barn eating her oats by the time Holy Diver made it past the finish line. Most of her half-siblings prefer turf or synthetic tracks.
#3 MOONSHINE MEMORIES (2-1)
#7 PIEDI BIANCHI (5-2)
#2 ALLURING STAR (4-1)
#1 DANCING BELLE (10-1)