2016 Kentucky Derby - Nyquist Pedigree Profile

This year’s Champion Two-Year-Old Colt will be Nyquist. The son of Uncle Mo capped off a perfect five race season with a measured half-length victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland Racecourse. Nyquist’s nemesis Swipe has finished a competitive second in all four of their meetings. With his unbeaten record culminating in a triumph in the Breeders’ Cup, Nyquist has been installed as the early 2016 Kentucky Derby favorite. In the last 30 years, only one colt, the two-time Champ Street Sense, has pulled off wins in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby, so history is against Nyquist. 

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is often won by a precocious miler type that can handle 1 1/6 miles, but has difficulty extending their speed, especially against later maturing foes who are bred for longer distances.Many of the colts exiting the Breeders’ Cup find themselves in the barn come Derby day, either through injury or not progressing as three year olds.

Let’s take a closer look at Nyquist – is he a legitimate 2016 Kentucky Derby contender or will he be better suited as a miler?

Nyquist (Uncle Mo - Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) was bred by Summerhill Farm and is owned by Reddam Racing LLC. The dark bay colt is a veteran of the sales ring. He was the fifth highest priced weaning in the Keeneland November sale, selling for $180,000.  He returned in the Keeneland September Yearling Sale where he was hammered down for $230,000, the tenth highest price of the auction.   Nyquist caught the eye of Dennis O’Neil at the Fasig Tipton March Florida Sale and brought $400,000, the fourth highest price of the sale.

Conditioned by Doug O’Neil, Nyquist took the California route to the Breeders’ Cup, capturing the Best Pal (G-2), Del Mar Futurity (G-1) and Frontrunner Stakes (G-1). Nyquist completed his two-year-old season with a 5-5-0-0 ($1,613,600) race record and currently leads the 2016 Kentucky Derby Points Standings with 30 points.

Doug O’Neil has been down the Triple Crown trail before.  In 2005, O’Neil conditioned Stevie Wonderboy to a 1 ¼ length victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the colt earned the mantle of early Kentucky Derby Favorite. Sadly, Stevie Wonderboy was injured the following year after placing second in the San Rafael Stakes. In 2012, O’Neil captured the roses with the late-bloomer I’ll Have Another. 

Sire:

The 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Colt Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie - Playa Maya, by Arch) was considered by many to be the most talented colt of his generation. Besides locking up the Two Year Old Championship with a decisive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Uncle Mo gave an impressive display of speed and determination while winning the Champagne Stakes. His final time of 1:34.51 was a fifth off of the stakes record, and he tied Seattle Slew for the second fastest running of the Champagne.

Uncle Mo’s three-year-old season was marred by illness. After struggling to finish third as the favorite in the Wood Memorial, his trainer Todd Pletcher discovered that the colt suffered from a gastrointestinal infection. Despite this, his shipped Uncle Mo to Kentucky to prepare for a start in the2011 Kentucky Derby.  A few days before the Derby, the colt was scratched and it was announced that Uncle Mo had a rare liver disease.  

Uncle Mo passed the Triple Crown and next surfaced in the King’s Bishop (G-1). It was an ambitious undertaking, coming back off of a layoff and illness, but Uncle Mo showed just how game he was. Racing wide throughout the seven furlong contest, Uncle Mo made a huge five-wide move around the far turn, flew passed his rivals, and seemed poised to win in the stretch, but couldn’t hold off a determined Calebs’s Posse. Uncle Mo missed the victory by a scant nose. Uncle Mo rebounded in his next start, the Kelso Handicap (G-2), a mile dirt race in which he beat three rivals.  The three year old made his final career start in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he finished tenth. 

Uncle Mo retired to stand stud at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud where he quickly set about siring tough, classy competitors. The 2016 leading Freshman Sire has 165 foals and 65 starters. 26 have won and of those, ten are stakes winners, three graded. Uncle Mo’s progeny, led by Nyquist, have combined earnings of over $3.5 million dollars.  

Nyquist’s sire, second tail sire, Indian Charlie, and third tail sire, In Excess all pass along brilliant, fragile speed to their offspring. 

Uncle Mo has one other winner out of a Forestry mare and his sire Uncle Charlie sired four starters, three winners from daughters of Forestry.

Female Family:

Nyquist’s female family is filled with speed and class.

While his dam Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry - Seeking Regina, by Seeking the Gold) visited the winner’s circle only once in a seven race career, she hit it out of the park with her first foal, who is Nyquist. She has a has a 2014 unnamed filly by Blame who attracted $300,000 at this year’s Keeneland September Sale.   

Seeking Gabrielle is a well bred mare. She’s a half sister to Seeking the Sky, a graded stakes winning sprinter. Seeking the Sky is the dam of Metropolitan Handicap (G-1) winner Sahara Sky and his half brother Animal Style, who is a stakes winning turf sprinter.

Seeking Gabrielle also a half sister to two juvenile stakes placed runners, Seeking it All (Schuylerville & Spinaway S.) and Seeking the Money (Sanford S.), plus the older stakes placed sprinter Seeking the Glory.  

Nyquist’s second dam won the Adirondack Stakes as a two year old. His third dam Fulbright Scholar and fourth dam Matriculation are stakes winners.

Damsire:

Nyquist’s damsire Forestry (Storm Cat - Shared Interest, by Pleasant Colony) contributes miler speed to the colt’s pedigree.  Forestry won the Kings Bishop (G-1) and the 1 1/16 mile Dwyer Stakes (G-2).  A $1.5 million dollar yearling, Forestry compiled a 11-7-1-2 ($591,225) race record before trotting off to stud.

Initially standing for $50,000, in 2000, Forestry’s fee has lowered to $8,000. He spent his summers shuttling to Peru and moved permanently to Brazil in 2014.  Forestry is noted for getting fast miler types.  His offspring include Discreet Cat, winner of the Cigar Mile, Preakness Stakes hero Shackleford, and Hollywood Starlet heroine Diplomat Lady.   

Forestry is the damsire of over a dozen stakes winners, including multiple Grade One heroine Turbulent Descent and 2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champ Bobby’s Kitten. 

Summary:

Milers tend to make the best sires. Bred to a speedy mare, they can help stretch the foal’s speed.  Mated to a longer distance type, milers can contribute needed speed. Three generations back, Nyquist’s pedigree holds stamina influences from Arch, who is Uncle Mo’s damsire, and middle distance influence Seeking the Gold, who is Nyquist’s second damsire.  Arch and Seeking the Gold have already passed along their attributes to their offspring, the second generation of Nyquist’s pedigree.

Nyquist carries miler speed through his sire Uncle Mo and damsire, Forestry. Nyquist’s strongest performances were the Best Pal Stakes and Del Mar Futurity, contested at 6 ½ furlongs and 7 furlongs, respectively. In the Frontrunner Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both held at 1 1/16 miles, Nyquist was able to hold off his nemesis Swipe by only ½ length.  Nyquist showed a new dimension in the Juvenile, rating mid-pack and traveling three wide the entire way. The determined colt has shown that he has the tenacity and the ability to outclass every opponent thus far. 

An interesting factor that may carry Nyquist far is that the colt may carry the X-Factor, or large heart gene. An active large heart gene is passed from sire to daughter and from daughter to son. Additionally, a dam can pass a recessive version of the gene to her daughters. Nyquist’s damsire Forestry could be a carrier, as his dam Shared Interest would have received the gene from her sire, Pleasant Colony. Shared Interest’s damsire Dr. Fager is a known carrier. Nyquist’s second damsire Seeking the Gold likely received the gene from his dam Con Game, a daughter of known large heart carrier Buckpasser. Can I prove it? No, only an EKG can prove it. However, Nyquit’s unbeaten record and the physical presence of leaf-like ears are positive indications.  Recent competitors who carry a dominant large heart gene include American Pharoah, Zenyatta and the recently deceased Shared Belief.

Nyquist resembles his sire in conformation, and like his sire, Nyquist has a high cruising speed and won’t back down from a fight. He has a smooth gait with no wasted motion. 

Can Nyquist’s heart carry the colt all the way to the Kentucky Derby?  We don’t know if Uncle Mo could have handled 1 1/8 miles, due to his illness. Only a few of Forestry’s offspring have successfully negotiated beyond 1 1/8 miles. Nyquist’s pedigree and forward running style say that he’ll be hard pressed to win at 1 1/8 miles and beyond.