2016 Hopeful - Showdown of Graded Stakes Winners

The 2016 Hopeful Stakes (G1) attracted a competitive field of seven two-year-old colts, including two graded stakes winners. 

The prestigious race has been held at Saratoga since 1903.  The seven-furlong contest is a strong indicator of future class.  For many years, the Hopeful hero and runners-up have continued on to successful careers on the track and in the breeding shed.  Hopeful Stakes alumni from the last decade include future winners of the Louisiana and Florida Derbys, Travers Stakes, and a Champion Two-Year-Old Colt.

This year’s Hopeful Stakes seven furlong distance won’t tax the competitors from a pedigree perspective. However, recent form, class, and of course, a good trip will determine the winner.

Head of the Class

Bitumen  (Mineshaft - Kobla Cat, by Tale of the Cat) captured the Sanford Stakes (G3) by 1 ¾ lengths in his last outing. His speed figure (85) was ten points lower than the one he received for his maiden score. Trainer Eddie Kenneally bypassed the Saratoga Special to point for the Hopeful. The colt fired a pre-race bullet four-furlong breeze in company.

Pedigree: Bitumen’s half-sister Meshell (Elusive Quality) is a stakes winning sprinter. Their dam Kobla Cat is a half-sister to multiple G1 winner and sire Quality Road (Elusive Quality). 

Classic Empire  (Pioneerof the Nile - Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief) has shown surprising precocity considering his pedigree. He won his debut in May. In July, he chased a swift pace and got up in the shadow of the wire to win the Bashford Manor (G3) by ¾ length. The colt’s speed figure jumped 20 points. The Mark Casse trainee will appreciate longer distances and has been recording stamina works at Saratoga.

Pedigree: A half-brother to two stakes winners. Read more about Classic Empire’s pedigree profile.

Tuned In

Runaway Lute (Midnight Lute - Nikki Tootsie, by Waquoit) has lived up to his name in both of his starts against state-bred competition. He won his debut by a dozen lengths after setting the pace, and then the Gary Contessa trainee captured the Rockville Centre Stakes. After a slow start, the colt showed a new dimension, sitting behind dueling pacesetters before galloping to an 8 ¼ length victory.  Gary Contessa tuned up Runaway Lute with a pre-race five-furlong move for the Hopeful as he faces open company for the first time.

Pedigree: Runaway Lute’s sire Midnight Lute was the 2007 Champion Male Sprinter. His offspring include G1 winning sprinters Midnight Lucky and Shaken It Up.  Runaway Lute’s half-sister Judy Soda (Personal Flag) is a multiple stakes winner at the state-bred level. A three-time winner at 1 1/8 miles, she has placed at seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.  

Ready to Step Up

The remainder of the field consists of two last out maiden winners and a couple of colts hoping to score their initial victory in a Grade 1 Stakes. Hey, if Laoban can do it...

Royal Copy (Bodemeister - Meadow Breeze, by Meadowlake) has improved in each of his three races. Stretching to seven furlongs in his last start proved to be just what the colt needed. After contesting a moderate early pace, Royal Copy put away the pace setter and held off a challenge by Pretty Boy Flash to win by 1 ¼ lengths, earning a decent 90 speed figure.  Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has eight Hopeful Stakes trophies sitting on his desk, the last was earned by Strong Mandate in 2013.  Royal Copy posted two quick works after his maiden score and should be ready to go.

Pedigree: First Crop Sire Bodemeister was second in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness after capturing the Arkansas Derby. The son of Empire Maker is currently #6 leading sire by earnings, with 14 starters, three winners and a stakes winner.  His progeny should improve with distance and maturity. Royal Copy receives his precocious nature from his dam. Meadow Breeze won two juvenile stakes, including the Matron (G1). She’s a half-sister to Overanalyze (Dixie Union) who won a pair of Grade 2 races as a two-year-old and the Arkansas Derby (G1) as a three-year-old.

Pretty Boy Flash (Gone Astray - Honour Isabel, by Honour and Glory) is facing his nemesis Royal Copy for the third time.  Both times the colts have met up at Saratoga, Royal Copy has repelled Pretty Boy Flash’s challenges but only by a combined 2 ¼ lengths.  In their latest competition, Pretty Boy Flash was stuck just to the outside of Royal Copy, and while the courageous colt had every chance to go by and briefly stuck his head in front, the three-wide trip may have been his undoing. Royal Copy hasn’t had the best trips in his trio of starts. He’s been bumped, stumbled, stuck in traffic and endured wide trips. He will be on the outside again in the Hopeful Stakes. Steve Asmussen’s charge had two steady pre-race breezes. 

Pedigree:  Sire Gone Astray won at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 level from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. The son of Dixie Union is noted for getting win-early types. He has produced four stakes winners, including the undefeated Florida sensation Three Rules. Pretty Boy Flash’s dam was in the money in 8 of 15 starts as a dirt sprinter. She’s a half-sister to the stakes-winning sprinter Portside. Pretty Boy Flash’s second dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 heroine Cara Rafaela, better known as the dam of Preakness winner and prominent sire Bernardini (A.P. Indy).

In his debut, Practical Joke (Into Mischief – Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor) tracked the pace on the outside from fourth place went wide on the turn. He was a bit green in the stretch before finding his best stride and pulling away by five lengths as the favorite. Leading trainer Chad Brown kept the colt on his regular routine of moderate pre-race works.  

Pedigree:  Sire Into Mischief won the CashCall Futurity (G1) as a two-year-old and placed in the Malibu Stakes (G1) at three. He’s noted for getting very precocious sprinter/milers. His most accomplished runner is Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero Goldencents.  Practical Joke’s dam is a stakes placed sprinter, and she is a half-sister to Louisiana Futurity winner Cubera (by Cape Canaveral).

Everybodyluvsrudy (Union Rags - Philly's Philly, by A.P. Indy) was outrun early in his debut, but showed a sharp turn of foot to get up for second place, beaten only ¾ length at 5 ½ furlongs. He’s a larger colt who will appreciate extra distance. He tossed his head up a few times, perhaps from kickback, but showed determination.  Everybodyluvsrudy has been training strongly for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Last year, Rodriguez’s charge Magna Light was DQ’d to second place in the Hopeful Stakes.

Pedigree:  First Crop Sire Union Rags won the Saratoga Special and Champagne Stakes, but was a heartbreaking second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, thus denied Two-Year-Old Championship honors. The following year, the talented son of Dixie Union became his sire’s first winner past 1 1/8 miles when Union Rags captured the Belmont Stakes (G1).  Everybodyluvsrudy’s dam is a half-sister to graded stakes-winning sprinters Woke Up Dreamin (Holy Bull), Lemon Drop Dream (Lemon Drop Kid), and Denomination (Smart Strike) a multiple Grade 3 Stakes winning turf mare.  Everybodyluvsrudy’s third dam is two-time Champion Turf Mare Flawlessly. 

Selections:

The last five Hopeful Stakes heroes stalked from third or fourth place in the early stages and made their move at the ½ mile pole.

#6 Classic Empire

#5 Royal Copy

#2 Practical Joke 

#7 Pretty Boy Flash