2016 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Selections

When the dust settled after the post position draw for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, a dozen youngsters were confirmed to enter the starting gate.

Using the data from Keys to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and  Strengths and Weaknesses of the Contenders let’s examine the field for win contenders and those who can fill out the exotics. 

                  [Bet $300, Get $300 Bonus – Play it on NYRA Bets]

Here's a quick recap of the contenders.

Colorful Charades (Discreet Cat - Laila's Punch, by Two Punch) is a pretty gray filly with a sprinter/miler build. She was a bit fractious in the early stages of a gallop on Nov. 1. Clearly wanted to run, but she settled down through the middle stages. Definitely a handful with a mind of her own. The Rudy Rodriguez trainee was outworked by stablemate Jamyson 'N Ginger in her only pre-Breeders’ Cup work. Colorful Charades finished nine lengths behind Yellow Agate in the Frizette and was simply outclassed. She drew the rail for the Breeders’ Cup and new jock Luis Saez will likely shoot her out of the gate to contest the early pace. Could she upset with those 30-1 morning odds? Only if Saez can slow the pace to a crawl. Don’t see it happening. Pass.

With Honors (War Front - All Her Class, by Street Cry (IRE)) is a lovely dark brown filly. This classy, well-bred miss is equally talented on turf and dirt. She gained valuable experience against Noted N’ Quoted in the Chandler. It was the first time that With Honors had been passed, and she was a little intimidated on the rail. She figured it out late and was coming back at her rival at the end of the race.  With Honors worked a leisurely 5F 1:05.3 on Oct. 29, going along smoothly under a loose rein. Trainer Keith Desormeaux was surprised at how slow she went, but wasn’t worried. With Honors has raced three times all at a mile or farther. She posted a second to last bullet 6F 1:12.40, which should set her up nicely for the Juvenile Fillies. The daughter of War Front likes to fight it out on the front end, but looks like she has the temperament to rate.  She is a solid win contender, especially at an enticing 10/1 ML. 

Valadorna (Curlin - Goldfield, by Yes It's True) jumps into deep waters fresh off of a maiden victory at Keeneland. Yes, she won by six lengths in 1:44.47 against a dozen other two year old fillies. Yes, her final time was comparable Dancing Rags’ Alcibiades victory on the same card. Valadorna breezed a post-race 5F bullet in 59.6 at Keeneland.  She had a slow canter, just stretching her legs at Santa Anita on November 3. Valadorna looked relaxed and just taking in the sights.  The last filly to win the Juvenile Fillies in her third lifetime start was Indian Blessing, plus no last out maiden winner has ever won the Juvenile Fillies.  Trainer Mark Casse has entered seven two-year-olds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The best placing was by Delightful Mary, who was third in 2010. That being said, if she’s on her game, Valadorna might be worth a look for the exotic plays. Her M/L odds are 5-1 and may be higher at post time. 

Yellow Agate (Gemologist - Lemon Sorbet, by Lemon Drop Kid) will try to mimic Indian Blessing’s feat of capturing the Juvenile Fillies after victories in a maiden contest and the Frizette Stakes. The Christophe Clement trainee was green and aggressively handled in the Frizette. She hasn’t raced around two turns, but she has the pedigree and conformation to handle classic distances. Yellow Agate completed her pre-racebreeze at Belmont, traveling 5F in 1:00.40. She tracked a stablemate and finished on even terms. Yellow Agate wasn’t pushed. Her ears were flickering and she was content to run alongside her stablemate. had a nice tour of the Santa Anita Oval on November 1. She moved along smoothly, ears up and not trying to run off. She appeared lost going around the turn when faced with a group of horses headed in the opposite direction, but she stayed relatively calm and didn’t freak out when two horses on her inside flew by.  The second and third generations of her distaff line are filled with international stakes turf routers.  Yellow Agate lacks the experience and foundation of a two-turn race, but the veteran trainer gave the filly two strong 5F breezes at Belmont and certainly knows how condition a horse for an optimal performance. Pedigree says Yellow Agate will handle the distance and then some.  She’d have to be special to win it, but with the right trip she could fill out the exotics.  

Sweet Loretta (Tapit - Ithinkisawapudycat, by Bluegrass Cat) knows how to find the winner’s circle, but the bay daughter of Tapit has some factors against her in the Breeders’ Cup. Her pedigree and conformation indicate that 1 1/6 miles may be at the top or even beyond her optimal scope against quality fillies.  Sweet Loretta struggled in the 7F Spinaway and was doing The Bump with Pretty City Dancer near the wire. Todd Pletcher’s breeze schedule for the filly has been uneven, indicating she may have been a bit body sore after her last race. Sweet Loretta didn’t break cleanly from the gate in her last two starts. If she unpacks that trait at Santa Anita, it will be a clear disadvantage. Additionally, she’s entering the Breeders’ Cup off of a 63 day layoff. 

Champagne Room (Broken Vow - Lucky to Be Me, by Bernstein) has been getting down and dirty with the best fillies in California. Unfortunately, she’s not quite up to the task. The bay filly has lost her last two starts by a combined 8 ¾ lengths, beaten by Union Strike, Noted and Quoted and With Honors. She was headstrong in the early stages of the Chandelier Stakes and had nothing left for the stretch. Champagne Room’s 5Fpre-race work on Oct. 29 wasn’t much better. After joggling sideways with the pony, she was let go at the worst possible moment, as a pair of horses went flying by on her inside. Champagne Room quickly took up the chase and looked like she was running off with her rider fruitlessly applying the breaks. To her credit, the game filly went four wide and stayed in contention.  Champagne Room looks and runs like a sprinter and 1 1/6 miles against this quality may be too far for her.  Since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup, only two fillies that finished out of the money in their final prep have won the Breeders’ Cup. One was via DQ.  

Jamyson ‘n Ginger (Bernardini - Ginger Brew, by Milwaukee Brew) has raced three times and is in the same last out maiden winner category as Valadorna. Distance won’t be a problem and she has a classy pedigree. In her pre-racebreeze 5F in 1:01.40 in company with stablemate Colorful Charades, Jamyson ‘n Ginger’s was moving easy on the inside, while her stablemate was being pushed to keep up. While they finished on even terms, Jamyson ‘n Ginger clearly could have outdistanced her stablemate if asked.   Who knows how talented Jamyson ‘n Ginger is? Could she be talented enough to hit the board at a large price? Anything is possible. If you’re spreading the money around here, toss her in one of your exotic tickets. 

Dancing Rags (Union Rags - Home Court, by Storm Cat) had a dream trip in the Alcibiades and outlasted Daddys Lil Darling by a length. Trackus notes that Daddys Lil Darling was moving faster (last ¼ in 25.31 & last 1/16 in 6.52) while Dancing Rags was slowing down a bit (last ¼ 25.88 & last 1/16 in 6.90). Still, it was a swift finish for both fillies. Dancing Rags’ speed figures have improved in each start and she looks ready to take a step up. She looked good November 2 while stretching her legs over the main track. Breeders’ Cup history is in her family. Dancing Rags’ sire Union Rags lost the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a desperate head after a tough trip, and lost out 2YO Champ honors. The filly’s second dam is 1996 Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Jewel Princess.  Major win contender. 

Union Strike (Union Rags - Classic Strike, by Smart Strike) has a later maturing, distance oriented pedigree. She’s a large, long-striding dark bay with a distinctive white blaze.  Union Strike has raced only twice, never beyond seven furlongs and her last start was 63 days ago. After her Del Mar Debutante victory, she was moved to Craig Dollase’s barn and hasn’t raced since. Union Strike will break from #9 and have to go wide on the first turn. Union Strike’s last breeze on Oct. 29, 5F in 1:00.40 was poor. She hung in the stretch and was outworked by her stablemate. Union Strike’s main work for the Breeders’ Cup was on Oct. 15. That was a stronger appearance.  She hesitated slightly going past her work mate, but with urging drew clear. Union Strike is still learning. She doesn’t relax, and doesn’t appear to have the drive, or perhaps the knowledge to pass other horses. Union Strike has the talent; she just hasn’t figured out what to do with it. With the right trip, she could fill out the exotics. 

Noted and Quoted (The Factor - Silver Cub, by City Zip) ticks all of the historical boxes.  Four races? Check. Winner of a G1 race? Check. Experienced BC trainer? Check. Strong pre-racework?  Check.  So, what’s not to like? Only two things. The Bob Baffert  charge has revealed in past races that she needs a pace pressing running style to run her best race. Twice Noted and Quoted sat more than a length off of the pace setter. Both times she finished fourth. Post 10 guarantees a wide trip, and she’ll have to breaks sharply and rush for position.  Noted and Quoted was all out to beat With Honors last time out and one misstep could cost her here.  Despite the wide post and running style, Noted and Quoted is one off the most talented fillies in the field and a strong win contender.  

Daddys Lil Darling (Scat Daddy - Miss Hot Salsa, by Houston) has improved in every start. She’s certainly fit, and has logged two races at 1 1/16 miles. Ken McPeek’s charge was a fast closing second to Dancing Rags in the Alcibiades despite being wide the entire way. Daddys Lil Darling breezed solo in her second to last work, getting 4F in 47.40 at Santa Anita under a light hold. The daughter of Scat Daddy has a strong turn of foot and the pedigree to carry her middle distances. The only knocks against the long-striding miss are her trainer’s 11-0-2-3 record in the Juvenile Fillies and Daddys Lil Darling’s running style. If she can stay a little closer to the pace and isn’t forced to go too wide around the far turn, she will be formidable. Definite win contender. 

American Gal (Concord Point - American Story, by Ghostzapper) is the other Baffert contender.  The Breeders’ Cup is an unusual placing for a filly who has raced just twice, never beyond 6F and hasn’t faced graded stakes company. Granted, she captured her two starts by a combined 8 ¾ lengths, but she’s up against it here. Coming back in just 13 days, American Gal drew the far outside post and will be used early to get a decent pace-pressing position. She has the pedigree to handle the distance, but entering her here appears to be an afterthought. Pass. 

Selections

When the Juvenile Fillies is held at Santa Anita, it is a lucrative betting race. Those on or near the lead have won the lion’s share of the purse.

Two favorites and a second favorite have captured the Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita half of the time, the last was in 2008, when Stardom Bound was the overwhelming favorite.  There is no Stardom Bound or Songbird in here, so I expect that we may see a nice ROI.

WIN CONTENDERS

#8 DANCING RAGS (12-1)

#2 WITH HONORS (10-1)

#11 DADDYS LIL DARLING (12-1)

#10 NOTED AND QUOTED (9-2)

USE UNDERNEATH

#3 VALADORNA (5-1)

#4 YELLOW AGATE (8-1)

#7 JAMYSON 'N GINGER (8-1)

#9 UNION STRIKE (6-1)