2015 Kentucky Derby - Pedigree Handicapping the Derby

Once again the Kentucky Derby is upon us. Angles seldom used in other horse races get pulled out of the closet and dusted off like the Christmas decorations. Some handicappers use track bias, pace figures and trainer/jockey statistics year round. Pedigree? Like the good dinner plates, it's only trotted out on special occasions. 

However, discerning horse players are aware of this powerful tool called pedigree handicapping. After all, the biggest questions in figuring out which colts have a legitimate shot to wear the roses are – can he get the distance and is he suited for the surface? 

Pedigree separates the horses that will love ten furlongs, those who could finish in the money and the ones that couldn’t get the distance with a guided missile strapped around their girth. Just because a horse ekes out a win at nine furlongs doesn’t mean he has enough gas in the tank to keep up a full-out run for an additional furlong.

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The most important factor in picking a Derby winner:

One thing that I noted in a 20-plus year study of the Kentucky Derby, was that practically every winner’s damsire’s daughters had previously foaled a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles or farther. It is generally accepted that a horse’s damsire and female family impart stamina and class. This is the most important aspect in determining if your Derby hopeful can handle the distance. 

The Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t fit that profile had a sire that was represented by a previous stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles or farther. So, either the sire, damsire or both must have shown the ability to get quality runners at classic distances.

In all except two instances since 2000, the damsire had produced a mare that bore a 1 ¼ mile stakes winner. Last year’s Derby winner, California Chrome, was an anomaly – or was he? His damsire Not For Love didn’t have stakes winning grand-foals at 1 ¼ miles, but one daughter did produce a winner at 1 ¼ miles in an allowance race. In eight of fourteen instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire’s daughters had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles.  

So how does the average handicapper go about finding out if their Derby horses fit the above criteria?  It takes time, effort and plenty of digging to ferret out the information, especially the data for the damsire/female families. I’ve done the work for you.

The Pedigree Report removes the tiresome research and shows which sires/damsires have the requisite classic distance stakes winners and  how many. The report also gives optimal distance/surface ratings, whether the subject Derby horse has the large heart factor, plus concise review and ratings of three crucial factors, pedigree, surface and an outlook/overall score, painting a clear picture of each horse’s chances. The Pedigree Report is available as a bonus with the valuable Super Screener.