2015 Freshmen Sires - The Picture So Far

Fall is rapidly approaching, and with it, longer distances for the two-year-olds. The less precocious babies will start to make their appearance in the maiden ranks. These are the youngsters that may become household names on next year’s Triple Crown trail. 

Longer race distances also mean a shift in the Freshmen Sire standings. The win early, sprint-oriented stallions will slip down the ranks as the miler-middle distance types start to make their presence felt. The year-end picture will be quite different from the initial standings.

There are three separate ways to view the stallion lists. Each has its advantages and drawbacks. The first and most common review of the sire lists is by progeny earnings. Often, the list can give a good indication of which stallions are siring the most winners. This view can be distorted if the sire is supported by one or two excellent earners, which artificially inflate the earnings. 

The second way to view the sire lists is by number of winners. However, a stallion can overwhelm this list with sheer numbers.  For a more accurate rating, I prefer to look at the percentage of winners to number of runners. The percentage of winners from first time starters (FTS) gives a good indication of precocity.  

The third way to look at the sire lists is by number of stakes horses sired by the stallions. This, combined with overall percentage of winners, can give a pretty accurate overview and be helpful in comparing stallions.  With this in mind, let’s review the current top ten sires.

#1  UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie - Playa Maya, by Arch)

Stands at: Ashford Stud, Kentucky    Stud Fee: $25,000

Stats: Foals: 165; Starters: 25; Winners: 7 (28%); FTS: 20%;

Stakes horses: 3

Outlook:  This year, the 2015 First Crop sires are all crying uncle.  Uncle Mo jumped to the top of the sire list early in the year and hasn’t looked back.  That was to be expected, as the Champion Two Year Old Colt of 2010 was highly touted by Ashford Stud and well supported by breeders. Uncle Mo’s stud fee is also the highest of this year’s freshman group.  Uncle Mo is the most accomplished and most expensive son to represent his deceased sire, Indian Charlie. Uncle Mo’s son UNCLE VINNY won the Sanford Stakes on a DQ. On the opposite side of the country, his son NYQUIST won the Best Pal Stakes and his daughter Gomo finished second in the Sorrento Stakes.  Uncle Mo’s progeny are certainly precocious, yet should handle 1 1/16 miles.  The majority will find 1 1/8 miles and beyond past their capacity, unless an individual has stamina through the distaff side. I expect that Uncle Mo will continue to be supported by breeders and become a solid sire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his stud fee rise to $30,000 and remain steady at that price.

#2 GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy - Get Lucky, by Mr. Prospector)

Stands at: Darley, Kentucky        Stud Fee:  $5,000

Stats: Foals: 87; Starters: 20; Winners: 7 (35%); FTS: 35%; 

Stakes horses: 2

Outlook: Girolamo has one of the best pedigrees of this year's freshmen sires.  His full sister Supercharger will likely be granted blue hen status. She's the dam of KY Derby winner and sire SUPER SAVER, plus multiple stakes winner BRETHREN. She's also the grand-dam of G-1 winner CALLBACK. Another half sister bore KY Derby runner up BLUEGRASS CAT. Girolamo's third through fifth dams are blue hens.  Why is this important to the handicapper?  It's a sign of class.  While Girolamo's on track record perhaps wasn't as spectacular as his breeding would indicate, he still had class to win at the G-1 level.  He should pass these genes to his offspring. Girolamo likely carries the large heart gene and if so, it could be dominant in his daughters.  Girolamo’s daughter SHE'S ALL READY won the Seeking the Ante Stakes at Saratoga and his son Lucky Lurie was second in the Rockville Centre Stakes.  While a few of Girolamo’s offspring are winning at shorter sprints, expect the majority to prefer longer sprints to 1 1/8 miles.  Some of his offspring may have classic aspirations. Girolamo’s is poised to become a leading second crop sire and I expect his stud fee will rise accordingly.

#3 TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride (ARG) - House of Danzing, by Chester House)

Stands at: Lane's End, Kentucky        Stud Fee: $10,000

Stats: Foals: 92; Starters:26; Winners:9 (36%); FTS: 24%; 

Stakes horses: 1

Outlook: For much of the early summer Twirling Candy was vying with Uncle Moe for the top spot on the Freshman Sire list. However, he was supplanted by Girolamo for the #2 position, and could slip farther down the ranks towards the end of the year.  Twirling Candy is one of four sons of Candy Ride to have their initial crop race this year.  Twirling Candy’s babies win over all surfaces and will likely be best up to 1 1/8 miles. Some may go farther if there is stamina in the individual’s distaff line.  His daughter Annie's Candy finished a good third against the boys in the Best Pal Stakes (G-2) at Del Mar. I expect Twirling Candy’s stud fee to either remain the same or go up, but we won’t see a meteoric rise, unless he gets a big stakes winner before the end of the year.

#4 BIG DRAMA (Montbrook - Riveting Drama, by Notebook)

Stands at: Bridlewood Farm, Florida   Stud Fee:$10,000

Stats: Foals:68; Starters:14; Winners:7 (50%); FTS:28%; 

Stakes horses: 2

Outlook: Big Drama was the Eclipse Award 2010 Champion Sprinter.  He was off to a fast start at stud when two of his first three starters visited the winners circle. Big Drama is a great-grandson of the four-time Champion BUCKPASSER. Buckpasser wasn’t noted as a sire of sires and Big Drama is one of only a few stallions left to continue this great stallion's bloodline. Big Drama has sprinter/miler speed through both his sire and damsire. He has a very classy pedigree and six of his seven half siblings own blacktype. Big Drama is poised to pass his speed and class to his offspring. His sire MONTBROOK is also the sire of CHAPEL ROYAL, who was 2008's leading freshman sire by number of winners and noted for getting very fast, win-early sprinters.  Big Drama’s son MR. KISSES won the Dr. Fager Stakes, a division of the Florida Sire series at Gulfstream Park.  Another son, Save the Drama, placed in the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes behind a son of Gone Astray. Big Drama’s stud fee is at the high end for stallions standing in Florida. By year end, the stallion may slip down the national ranks slightly as stallions with rout-oriented babies start to win. Eventually, Big Drama may fill the void left by Wildcat Heir in producing classy sprinter/milers.

#5 GONE ASTRAY (Dixie Union - Illicit, by Mr. Prospector)

Stands at: Northwest Stud, Florida     Stud Fee: $4,500

Stats: Foals: 69; Starters: 15; Winners: 4 (26%); FTS:20%; 

Stakes horses: 2

Outlook: Gone Astray has a classy distaff family that was carefully cultivated by the famed Phipps family and Claiborne Farm. His dam is a half sister to the Champion Three Year Old Filly, SMUGGLER. Gone Astray’s second dam is the Champion Older Female, INSIDE INFORMATION and his fourth through sixth dams are blue hens. Gone Astray has had a couple of win-early types, including his daughter IT’S HIGH TIME, heroine of the Desert Vixen Stakes, part of the Florida Sire Stakes series held at Gulfstream point, plus his son BULLET GONE ASTRAY winner of the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes. The later is expected to contest the Hopeful Stakes. Look for the majority of Gone Astray’s offspring be mid to late season types who will prefer middle distances.

#6 ARCHARCHARCH (Arch - Woodman's Dancer, by Woodman)

Stands at: Spendthrift Farm, Kentucky        Stud Fee: $9,000

Stats: Foals: 123; Starters: 26; Winners: 7 (26%); FTS: 13%;

Stakes horses: 0

Outlook: Archarcharch was the favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby, but was injured during the race and retired. The stallion has a strong classic pedigree and his offspring should be best around two turns. He also has turf attributes, as his second dam was a Grade 1 winner on the lawn, plus Archarcharch carries the bloodlines of Roberto, Woodman and Nureyev. It's entirely possible that Archarcharch's babies could improve their form over the lawn. Archarcharch was well supported by breeders and I predict that he will be among the top freshman sires later this year and he could become a leading second crop sire next year. Unless Archarcharch’s offspring are successful in procuring legitimate blacktype, I doubt his stud fee will rise noticeably next year.

#7 FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even - Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike)

Stands at: Double Diamond Farm, Florida    Stud Fee: $7.500

Stats: Foals: 98; Starters: 21; Winners: 6 (28%); FTS:19%; 

Stakes horses:0

Outlook: First Dude has a classic late developing pedigree. While he placed as a two year old, First Dude really hit his stride as a late season three year old and as a four year old.  The low number of starters and winners reflect the later maturing aspect of First Dude’s progeny.  Florida is noted for getting win-early distance challenged types, yet First Dude brings much needed stamina to balance out all of the speed.  It wouldn’t surprise me if First Dude is represented by a classic contender or two over the next year.

#8 GIANT SURPRISE (Giant's Causeway - Twisted Sis, by A.P. Indy)

Stands at: Rockridge Stud, New York        Stud Fee: $2,500

Stats: Foals: 30; Starters:5; Winners:1 (20%); FTS: 20%; 

Stakes horses: 2

Outlook: The aptly named Giant Surprise won his only start, a maiden race at Saratoga, getting six furlongs in 1:10 and beating his rivals by 4 ½ lengths. He was vanned off and never raced again.  His dam raced once and failed to hit the board. She’s a half sister to three stakes placed runners, the most accomplished is Awesome Twist, who placed in three graded stakes races. Giant Surprise’s second dam TWIST AFLEET won a number of graded stakes, including the Test and Top Flight, both Grade One events.  Giant Surprise has only thirty foals. They’ll be late season types who should bloom at age three and beyond.  This young stallion is a pleasant surprise, as his only winner, SUDDEN SURPRISE captured the Funny Cide Stakes in his second start. A daughter, Super Surprise, was second in the Seeking the Ante Stakes, beating the third place horse by over five lengths. If this son of Giant’s Causeway catches the eye with more classy babies, he could follow in the hoof prints of Malibu Moon or City Zip and earn a spot in Kentucky.

#9 PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado (IRE) - Fun House, by Prized)

Stands at: Spendthrift Farm, Kentucky        Stud Fee: $9.500

Stats: Foals: 106; Starters: 34; Winners: 5 (15%); FTS: 9%;

Stakes horses: 1

Outlook: Paddy O'Prado is the latest son of champion El Prado to enter stud. El Prado's sons at stud include Champion Turf Horse and leading turf sire Kitten's Joy, established sire Medaglia d'Oro and Artie Schiller, who was in the top 20 as a first through third crop sire. El Prado's other turf sires, Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller get winners over all surfaces, but their offspring are strongest over turf and Polytrack. So far, Paddy O'Prado's babies are performing to expectations. A few are win early types but the majority will prefer longer sprints through middle distances, although some may go farther over the lawn. They should improve through their three and four year old season. His daughter Holy Fashion placed second in the 5 ½ furlong Cassidy Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I don’t anticipate Paddy O’Prado’s stud fee to change significantly next year.

#10 COURT VISION (Gulch - Weekend Storm, by Storm Bird)

Stands at: Park Stud, Canada   Stud Fee: $7,500 (CAN)

Stats: Foals: 53; Starters:15; Winners: 2 (13%); FTS: 9%; 

Stakes horses: 3

Outlook: The well-bred Court Vision has four full siblings and eight half siblings, six of whom are stakes winners or stakes placed. Court Vision’s dam is a full sister to Preakness hero and sire SUMMER SQUALL and she’s a half sister to the legendary A.P. INDY.  Court Vision’s second dam is the blue hen WEEKEND SURPRISE.  A sturdy competitor of 31 starts, Court Vision won the Remsen Stakes (G-2) as a two year old and transferred to the turf after a poor 13^th place in the Kentucky Derby. He captured the Breeders’ Cup Mile in his final race.  Court Vision’s first runner, his daughter Crumlin Spirit debuted with a second place finish in the Shady Well Stakes at Woodbine.  Three weeks later, another precocious daughter The Mink Mile, jumped directly into stakes competition with a third place finish in the Nandi Stakes also at Woodbine. Court Vision’s first winning son Hammers Vision, won his debut sprinting over the Belmont turf before finishing third in the Saratoga Special (G-2). Court Vision’s offspring should improve with maturity and will emulate their sire’s adaptability to various surfaces. This, along with Court Vision’s stellar pedigree, should make his offspring attractive to both the Canadian and U.S. markets.  

Special Mention:

LONHRO (AUS) isn’t considered a first crop sire because he has been at stud in Australia and was leading sire there in 2011. The two-time Champion stood for one year at Darley in the U.S., where he sired 88 foals. He’s had five winners in North America, ranging from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles over dirt, Polytrack and turf and they’ve earned a combined $212,721.  Lonhro has five winning two year olds in Europe, including two blacktype earners. Lonhro’s U.S. offspring could be very competitive in the U.S.  They’ve given the overall physical appearance of being late bloomers that can win over any surface.

CAPE BLANCO (IRE) stood for two years in the U.S., and then was sold to Japan for the 2015 breeding season. Despite his stature as a top level turf horse, U.S. breeders were very supportive of Cape Blanco at stud. He has 165 two year olds, the same number as Uncle Mo. Cape Blanco's babies are a no brainer bet over the turf. Some of his offspring may take to the dirt if there are strong dirt attributes through the distaff line. Their form should hold over most synthetics, especially Polytrack. Those who are faced with an off track may perform better over mud than over the dirt. Cape Blanco’s offspring should round into form through late summer and fall and improve as three year olds. Most won't have distance issues. Cape Blanco has 33 starters and four winners. His babies have won from 5 ½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, all over the lawn.

The odds are against a stallion to become a constant producer of top class runners. There are roughly 114 first crop sires at stud in the United States, and 27 of them have a stud fee of $4,000 or higher.  Competition for well-bred mares is fierce and a stallion is only as good as his last stakes winner. Typically, 85- 90% of first crop sires will see their fees drop by the third year. Many will become regional stallions or shipped overseas.  On the bright side, some stallions who are deemed a failure at stud may become good broodmare sires.

Learn more about how to bet on the offspring of this year’s Freshmen Sires.