2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Selections

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is a terrific starting point for the 2015 Breeders’ Cup. The race offers a host of betting opportunities and the correct combination can lead to a substantial addition to the handicapper’s weekend bankroll. When faced with a large field, one of the best strategies is to use reverse handicapping, tossing out vulnerable favorites and horses that don’t fit the profile for a winning position.

The Course

Keeneland has one of the best maintained turf courses in the country.  They should, since it’s only used about three months out of the year.  Friday’s turf course is expected to have some give to the ground due to five days of incessant rain. This will be an advantage for the international shippers, who are used to good/yielding ground. 

Post Position

Posts #1, #2, and #13 and #14 are at a disadvantage. The inside posts are 0-8, although one entrant from post #1 finished third. Post #2 fared a little better with two third place finishers and a fourth place finish. Posts #13 - #14 are 0-8 to hit the board.

Post #4 is popular for winners. Three of 8 winners broke from post #4.  Right next door, Post #3 is responsible for one winner, two second places and a third in eight starts.  Post #6 is also very popular. None have won from that post, but one has finished third and four have finished fourth -- Something to think about when structuring your tickets.

Favorites

This is a race for longshot plays. Only one favorite has won the Juvenile Turf since 2007.  Three have finished second, one has placed third and one fourth. Think it’s a good bet to go with the second favorite? Save your money. None have won, and only two have completed the exacta. One has finished third and one fourth.   

Where are you from?

Twenty-eight European horses have entered the Juvenile Turf since 2007.  How dominant are they? 43% have hit the board. Five have won, three each have finished second, and fourth and one has finished third.

Weeding out the contenders

So, bearing in mind the aforementioned issues, plus the Keys to the Juvenile Turf,  the scoop on the Euros and weighing the strengths and weaknesses of the local contingent, let’s take a shot at finding the winner.  Just because one of the horses doesn’t meet the win criteria doesn’t mean that it can’t hit the board.

This year, the two popular European horses, Cymric and Hit It a Bomb, drew the far outside posts, never a good place to be in a full field. 

All of the previous winners have started at least three times and finished in the top three in a stakes. That leaves out Shogun, Highland Sky, Ray’s the Bar, Airoforce, Camelot Kitten and Hit it A Bomb.

Mid pack types and closers have won seven of eight editions of the Juvenile Turf. One winner was a pace presser.  So, according to running style, that leaves out: Manhattan Dan (pace setter) Airoforce (presser) and Azar (presser).

Who’s left?

Key these horses to win over the favorites.

#1 DRESSED IN HERMES  (20-1) – He was beaten by Hollywood Don in his second start, but Dressed in Hermes was up on the pace that day.  After a jock switch and change in running style, the fashionable colt overcame a difficult trip.  Dressed in Hermes has improved in each of his three starts and having Gary Stevens in your saddle is a huge plus. Only negative is post position #1.

#6 BIRCHWOOD (12-1) – the only Euro who made the cut.  He was rank and too close to the pace in his last start, which cost him energy and possibly a placing. Note that he was running against the best colt in England, Air Force One. Previously, Birchwood won a Group 2 race. He has won over good turf, but is stretching out from a sprint.

#9 SKY MARSHAL (30-1) – Let Conquest Daddyo get the jump on him, but was beaten only 1 ¼ lengths. Sky Marshall gets a jock switch to Luis Saez. Note that the Summer Stakes was held over a good turf course.

# 10 CONQUEST DADDYO  (12-1) –  Note that 2010 Juvie Turf hero Pluck won the Summer Stakes before the Breeders’ Cup. Conquest Daddyo’s speed figures have improved in each start and he is trained by Mark Casse, who is having a very good year. The underrated and dangerous Joe Bravo has the mount.

# 11 HOLLYWOOD DON (10-1) - Won two starts on turf, including the Del Mar Juvenile Turf before a failed experiment on the dirt in the Frontrunner Stakes.  Hollywood Don tried hard and finished third, in a good effort.  He gets top jock Joel Rosario on board.

Use the favorites and other lower-priced horses in the exotics positions.