2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Assessing the U.S. Contenders
The Juvenile Turf is the first Breeders’ Cup race on Friday. The contest always attracted an over-subscribed field of national and international two year old colts. This year, trainer Mark Casse holds a very strong hand. He conditions both of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series winners entered into the race, plus the Bourbon Stakes third place finisher Sliding Spring.
We reviewed the international colts earlier, now let’s examine the national contenders. Colts with a first preference in the Juvenile will not be profiled unless they draw into the Juvenile Turf.
Strengths: The pretty gray Airoforce has won both of his starts by a combined 5 ¾ lengths and is the likely favorite for the Juvenile Turf. Although lightly raced, he faced eleven colts in his debut and 13 others in the Bourbon Stakes, so he should be comfortable in Juvenile Turf. Airoforce breezed a sprightly 4F :48.4 (9/49) over the Churchill dirt.
Weakness: Airoforce benefitted from a good trip in the Bourbon, but seemed hard pressed to put away a tiring Siding Spring and Hot Ore. The lightly raced colt History is against Airoforce. Traditionally, favorites don’t win the Juvenile Turf. Only one favorite has won the since the race’s inception in 2007. The last horse to finish in the money in the Bourbon Stakes and win the Juvenile Turf was Nownownow in 2007.
Strengths: Azar has made four starts and finished out of the top three only once, in his debut. He’s raced three times at 1 1/16 miles, including a victory in the With Anticipation Stakes (G-2), getting his final split in 6.12. Azar overcame a tough start in the Pilgrim Stakes and just missed the winning photo by a short neck to Isotherm. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Juvenile Turf in 2010 with Pluck. Azar breezed a quick 4F :47.8 (3/28) over the dirt in company with Juvenile Turf entrant Thrilled at Keeneland.
Weakness: Azar likes to run on or near the lead. Only one pace presser has won Juvenile Turf, and that was Nownownow over a boggy Monmouth course. Azar’s speed figures are lower than the top pair and his figure regressed slightly in the Pilgrim Stakes.
Strengths: Camelot Kitten is a tough colt who has overcome adversity in both of his starts. He outdueled his competitor in his debut. In the Bourbon Stakes, the son of Kitten’s Joy was off slow and had traffic issues. Once he was in the clear, Camelot Kitten displayed a swift turn of foot to finish second, 2 ½ lengths behind Azur and ½ length in front of Siding Spring. Camelot Kitten is a full brother to BOBBY'S KITTEN, who finished third in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and last year won the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Trainer Chad Brown conditioned the second and third place finishers in the 2012 Juvenile Turf and trained 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Maram. Camelot Kitten breezed a slow 4F :49.80 (28/39) over the Keeneland Dirt.
Weakness: Camelot Kitten has raced only twice and his speed figures are fairly low. He should show improvement in the Juvenile Turf and with a good trip, he could hit the board.
Strengths: Conquest Daddyo has shown placing and speed figure improvement in each of his three starts, cumulating in a 1 ¾ length victory in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. The son of Scat Daddy has an adaptable running style. In his debut, he was close to the pace before taking command. The colt showed a new dimension and overcame a slow start in the Summer Stakes which had him placed at the back of the pack. Take note that the only national winner of the Juvenile Turf won the Summer Stakes before his victory in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs. Conquest Daddyo breezed a sharp 5F 1:00.80 (4/11) over the Keeneland Dirt.
Weakness: It’s difficult to find a chink in Conquest Daddyo’s armor. He has a legitimate shot in here. The only drawback would be a poor post position. Only one post time favorite has won the Juvenile Turf. They’ve hit the board four times.
Strengths: Dressed in Hermes entered the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita as a maiden and exited as a winner. Dressed in Hermes benefited from a perfect ride by Gary Stevens in the Zuma Beach and got his final furlong in :12 flat. His speed figure has improved in every start. Dressed in Hermes second dam INDIAN FASHION won the Jenny Wiley Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the lawn and placed in the G-1 Orchid Handicap traveling 1 1/8 miles on turf. Last year’s Zuma Beach winner Luck of the Kitten was second in the Juvenile Turf when the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita. Dressed in Hermes breezed a bullet :46.20 (1/39) over the Keeneland Dirt for his final Breeders’ Cup work.
Weakness: Dressed in Hermes falls into the “Who did he beat?” category. The grand-son of Sunday Silence has shown improvement, but he’s taking a huge step up in class and won’t have the benefit of competing over his home course like Luck of the Kitten did last year. Often, horses trying a new distance and shipping after winning their maiden regress in their next start. Dressed in Hermes is trainer Janet Armstrong’s first starter in the Breeders’ Cup.
Strengths: In the Pilgrim Stakes, Highland Sky rated on the inside of Isotherm during the early stages of the race and the pair moved together through the stretch. Forever in Love came out into the path of Highland Sky causing that one to check and loose racing room and momentum momentarily. Highland Sky got going again, but had lost a length due to traffic. He made up ground to finish 1 ¼ lengths behind the top three. Highland Sky’s stakes placed dam is a half sister to Q.E. II Stakes (G-1) heroine BIT OF WIMSY. Highland Sky appears none the worse for wear after the Pilgrem. He posted a bullet 4F :48 (1/11) over the Belmont inner turf.
Weakness: The lightly raced Highland Sky was the recipient of a bad trip in the Pilgrim Stakes. No winner of the Juvenile Turf has placed worse than third in their last start. Trainer Barclay Tagg is 0-7 at the Breeders’ Cup.
Strengths: Draw a line through Hollywood Don’s last start. It was a failed experiment over the dirt. Previously the son of leading sire Tapit strung together back-to-back victories over the lawn, including a 1 ½ length score in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes over a contentious line-up. Hollywood Don is a half to the multiple stakes winning turf sprinting mare WEST OCEAN. Hollywood Don breezed a slow 4F :49.0 (13-21) over the dirt at San Luis Rey Training Center.
Weakness: It’s hard to determine the class of the field in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes. Hot Ore, the runner-up in the race finished a dismal ninth in the Bourbon Stakes after dueling on the lead. The third place horse in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf finished second to Dressed in Hermes in the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita. Trainer Peter Miller has sent four contenders to the Breeders’ Cup. His best effort was a third place finish by Reneegoeszip in the Turf Sprint in 2013. Hollywood Don has second preference in the Juvenile.
Last race: 1st Pilgrim Stakes (G-3); 82 top Bris SF.
Strengths: Isotherm has won both starts over the lawn by a determined neck. He had a tough trip in the Pilgrim Stakes. Wide throughout, the colt made a tremendous move around the far turn in the Pilgrim Stakes and ran down Azar and Ray’s the Bar in the final few strides. Isotherm is bred to go longer and to improve with maturity. Three colts who have won/placed in the Pilgrim have finished second or third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, so this is a key prep. In his final tune-up, Isotherm breezed 5F 1:02. (1/1) over the Saratoga turf training course. This was his slowest work to date.
Weakness: Isotherm’s top speed figure of 82 is fairly low. He has a swift turn of foot, but ran in spots down the lane in the Pilgrim Stakes. He’s a promising youngster and could have a say in the outcome of the Juvenile Turf. Isotherm has second preference in the Juvenile.
Strengths: Manhattan Dan has faced the starter five times. The confirmed front runner ran them off their feet in his third start sprinting at Saratoga and winning by three lengths. He once again set the pace in the Summer Stakes, but was overcome by Conquest Daddyo and Sky Marshal. Manhattan Dan faded to third, beaten 3 ½ lengths.
Weakness: Manhattan Dan is a half brother to the multiple stakes winning sprinter/miler VERY VEGAS. The Contessa trainee couldn’t last a mile and has never raced two turns. His pedigree indicates that he’ll be best as a sprinter/miler and 1 1/16 miles may be farther than he wants to travel in top company. His speed figures have declined since his maiden win. Manhattan Dan’s last breeze was a sharp 3F :34.2 (1/12) before the Futurity.
Strengths: After winning his debut at Ascot, top turf conditioner Chad Brown took over Ray’s the Bar’s training and sent him to the Pilgrim Stakes for his first U.S. start. Ray’s the Bar galloped along in last place for much off the race. Rounding the far turn, the colt faced a wall of horses, but found a narrow seam down at the rail. The courageous English-bred went through willingly and was just nosed out at the wire by Isotherm and Azar. Ray’s the Bar worked a strong 5F 1:02 (2/8) over the Belmont turf for his Breeders’ Cup tune-up.
Weakness: Ray’s the Bar is certainly a promising, willing colt with plenty of potential. His dam is a half sister to the dam of last year’s Champion Turf Horse MAIN SEQUENCE, hero of the Breeders' Cup Turf. That being said, he ran a huge race in the Pilgrim. Often, horses making their second start in the U.S. suffer from “Euro Bounce” and regress next time out. Ray’s the Bar’s post race works were slower than his breezes leading up to the Pilgrim, indicating that the he may not be at his best next time out. However, if you like Isotherm and Azar, keep this guy in your exotics.
Strengths: In his debut, Siding Spring galloped away from his rivals, strolling under the wire six lengths in front. The mile race over good turf was run in a slow 1:42. The son of Warrior’s Reward has never raced over a firm course and could improve on the surface. Siding Spring breezed a very strong 4F :47.60 (4/49) over the Churchill dirt for his final work.
Weakness: Siding Spring didn’t have an excuse in the Bourbon Stakes. Sitting in third position for much of the race the bay colt had a good trip, but had no interest in getting the lead. He was passed first by Areoforce and then nosed out for second money by Camelot Kitten. His speed figure improved only slightly from his debut to the Bourbon Stakes and he doesn’t appear fast enough to challenge the top horses. Siding Spring has second preference in the Juvenile.
Strengths: In an unusual move, Sky Marshal entered an allowance race while still a maiden. Making all of the pace, he beat winners by 3 ½ lengths. Sky Marshal displayed a different running tactic in the Summer Stakes. Racing in tandem with Conquest Daddyo at the back of the pack, Sky Marshal let his rival get the jump on him. Sky Marshal had to steady slightly in traffic, but once in the clear, he gave it his best shot to finish second, beaten 2 ¾ lengths by Conquest Daddyo. Sky Marshal posted a 4F :50.40 (46/54) over the Woodbine Polytrack in his latest breeze.
Weakness: Sky Marshal is a lightly raced colt. He’s displayed talent in both starts, but in the Summer Stakes, it appeared as if he simply passed tired rivals. His speed figure for his last two starts remained the same and I suspect that 1 1/16 miles will be at the top of his scope. Sky Marshal’s second dam Celtic Melody was a swift sprinter and won the Humana Distaff (G-1). Sky Marshal will need to improve if he wants a say in the Juvenile Turf.
Doubtful to draw in: Catapult, Copingway, Imperial Warrior, Sheikh of Sheikhs, Strike Midnight, Tequila Joe.