2013 Kentucky Oaks: Pedigrees and Picks
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
Photo:
Eclipse Spotswire
Sports
media's gaze has shifted to Kentucky. Practically every hair
covering the Kentucky Derby contenders has been analyzed, morning
works are scrutinized and debates rage over the ability of this or
that horse to get 1 ¼ miles. However, before the colts take their
spot in the gate on Saturday, we have another another race, no less
important, on Friday. The Kentucky
Oaks
field is just as deep and contentious as the colt counterpart. A
potential superstar or two may emerge from the Oaks.
There's
no shortage of speed in the Oaks. Nine of the ten fillies like to set or press the pace. Three of them are
undefeated. I'll rate each filly's overall chances using pedigree,
class and running style.
BEHOLDER
(Henny Hughes - Leslie's Lady, by Tricky Creek)
Race
record: 8-5-2-0 ($1,575,000)
The
daughter of sprinter Henny Hughes is two noses away from being
undefeated in her last seven starts. Beholder does her best running
on the lead. The three times that she failed to win, she sat behind
another horse. Beholder has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Her sire
failed to win past seven furlongs and has produced only one stakes
winner at 1 1/8 miles, out of a Dynaformer mare. Beholder's dam
Leslie's Lady is a stakes winning sprinter. Damsire Tricky Creek
also gets sprinters. As a damsire, he's represented by one stakes
winner at 1 1/8 miles. Beholder is a half sister to the stand-out
new sire Into Mischief, sire of Kentucky Derby contenders Goldencents
and Vyjack. Into Mischief won up to 1 1/16 miles. Beholder will
take the field as far as she's able, yet with other speed breathing
down her neck, she may falter in the final furlong. Overall
Score: B
CLOSE
HATCHES
(First Defence - Rising Tornado, by Storm Cat)
Race
record: 3-3-0-0 ($201,300)
This
untested, undefeated filly also likes to run on the lead. She beat
Oaks entrant Princess of Sylmar by 3 ¼ lengths in the 1 1/8 mile
Gazelle Stakes (G-1) in a strong 1:50.53. On the same day, Verrazano
the unbeaten possible favorite for the Kentucky Derby won the Wood
Memorial by a neck in 150.27. Close Hatches descends from racing
royalty. Her fourth dam Best In Show is the dam of Kentucky Oaks
winner Blush with Pride. She's also the third dam of Oaks/Belmont
Stakes heroine Rages to Riches, her half brother Jazil, also a
Belmont Stakes winner. Overall Score: A
DREAMING
OF JULIA(A.P.
Indy - Dream Rush, by Wild Rush)
Race
record: 6-4-1-1 ($767,000)
The
highly anticipated first foal out of the multiple graded stakes
winning Dream Rush provided racegoers with a jaw-dropping 21 ¾
length performance in the 1 1/8 mile Gulfstream Oaks in a blazing
1:48.97. As a reference, top Kentucky Derby contender Orb won the
Florida Derby in 1:50. 87. Dreaming of Julia has proven that she can
sit behind the pace if necessary. The gallant filly is also battle
tested. She prevailed by a hard fought head in an epic battle last
year in the Frizette (G-1), in what was essentially a match race
against the brilliant filly My Happy Face. Overall Score: A
FLASHY
GRAY
(Flashy Bull - Pleasure Cat, by Cat's Career)
Race
record: 5-2-3-0 ($196,100)
Scratched
due to foot bruise.
MIDNIGHT
LUCKY
(Midnight Lute - Citiview, by Citidancer)
Race
record: 2-2-0-0 ($153,600)
The
pretty gray daughter of new sire Midnight Lute is the most lightly
raced filly in the Oaks field with only two starts under her girth.
She set a new track record for 1 1/6 miles in 1:41.06 in the Sunland
Park Oaks over a lightning fast track. Two-time Sprint Champ Midnight
Lute is also the sire of Derby entrant, Louisiana Stakes runner-up
MyLute. Midnight Lucky's half sister is a stakes placed sprinter.
Their dam, 0-10 in her racing career, is a full sister to the
multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Hookedonthefeeling. That one
is the dam of multiple grade 1 sprinter Pussy Cat Doll, a daughter of
Midnight Lute's sire, Real Quiet. Midnight Lucky's damsire Citidancer
is the broodmare sire of five stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles. The
talented Midnight Lucky should handle 1 1/8 miles, but she may lack
the experience to run with the big girls. Overall Score B
PRINCESS
OF SYLMAR
(Majestic Warrior - Storm Dixie, by Catienus)
Race
record: 6-4-1-0 ($238,220)
The
daughter of new promising sire Majestic Warrior had her four race
winning streak snapped in the Gazelle Stakes (G-1), her first graded
stakes contest. To be fair, Princess of Sylmar was wide the entire
way and simply couldn't catch Close Hatches. Majestic Warrior is
the sire of five stakes winners. The second crop sire's babies have
yet to win past 1 1/16 miles, although two have placed at 1 1/8
miles. Princess of Sylmar's dam is stakes placed at 1/16 miles over
the lawn. There is little blacktype in this distaff family. Princess
of Sylmar's pedigree is borderline for 1 1/8 miles. She's proven
against listed winners in New York, but will be facing more
accomplished rivals in the Oaks. Overall Score: C
PURE
FUN (Pure
Prize - Chelsea Green, by Key to the Mint)
Race
record: 10-3-1-2 ($353,699)
There's
no doubt Pure Fun loves Churchill Downs after she recorded the best
finish of her career, a 9 ¼ length route against allowance winners
over the track. The daughter of Pure Prize was victorious in the
Hollywood Starlet (G-1) at 1 1/16 miles in her two year old finale,
but she hasn't retained that form at three. She does have an excuse,
since both of her starts this year came over Polytrack. Pure Fun is
the best foal produced by her dam. There's a smattering of
black-type throughout her female family. Pure Fun damsire,
Brilliant/Classic Chef-de-race Key to the Mint has one recent stakes
winner at 1 1/8 miles, Breeder's Cup Distaff heroine Adoration.
Pure Fun has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles and she loves the
Churchill surface. The switch back to dirt makes her an intriguing
long shot. Overall Score: B
ROSE
TO GOLD
(Friends Lake - Saucy, by Tabasco Cat)
Race
record: 7-5-1-0 ($717,889)
Rose
to Gold's connections had a high opinion of their filly from the
start. The daughter of Friends Lake started her career as a stakes
winner at Calder, destroying her competition by a combined 26 lengths
in her first two starts. Rose to Gold enters the Oaks after easy
victories in the Honeybee and Fantasy Stakes. Friends Lake hasn't
sired a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. His dirt progeny are best as
sprinter milers, yet a few of his offspring have won at routes over
turf and synthetics. Rose to Gold's damsire pulled off a
Preakness/Belmont Stakes double. He's the damsire of seven stakes
winners at 1 1/8 miles, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box.
Rose to Gold is the first stakes winner in two generations of her
distaff family. Her unraced dam is a full sister to a stakes placed
sprinter. Rose to Gold's pedigree is borderline for 1 1/8 miles, but
she's proven her class over graded stakes foes at Oaklawn and she
teams with one of Churchill's most winning jocks, Calvin Borel.
Overall Score: B
SEANEEN
GIRL(Spring
At Last - Afternoon Krystal, by Afternoon Deelites)
Race
record: 7-2-1-2 ($220,197)
Seaneen
Girl won the Golden Rod (G-2) at Churchill in her two year old
finale. She enters the Oaks with only one prep under her girth, a
third place in the Fair Grounds Oaks, finishing four lengths behind
the winner Unlimited Budget. Her second crop sire hasn't produced a
winner at 1 1/8 miles. He's a winner at the distance and it's simply
a matter of time before his offspring win at middle distances.
Seaneen Girl's damsire Afternoon Deelites was a multiple graded
sprinter/miler. His daughter's offspring tend to be sprinter/miler
types, although one stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles is evident. Seaneen
Girl's dam Afternoon Krystal is a half sister to the stakes winning
stakes veteran Red Raymnond. Seaneen Girl's pedigree indicates that
she may be able to win at 1 1/8 miles. She's had a consistent series
of four and five furlong works, but running the longest race of her
career off of an average prep race is a tall task. Overall
Score: C
SILSITA(Macho
Uno - Naturally Wild, by Wild Again)
Race
record: 4-2-0-1 ($84,725)
Silsita
has been facing lesser company than she'll meet in the Oaks. She
fought bravely to win the Bourbonette Oaks (G-3) at Turfway to earn
her way to Churchill. Silsita has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles.
She's descended from a hardy stakes winning family. Her dam a
veteran of 33 starts, won her maiden over the Churchill dirt, but
found her calling as a multiple stakes placed turf miler. Silsita's
sire, a Champion Juvenile, is the sire of six stakes winners at 1 1/8
miles, including the hard-trying Mucho Macho Man and Stephen Foster
hero Macho Again, who, like Silsita, is out of a Wild Again mare.
Silsita has shown her tenacity on the track, but will be taking a
huge class jump in the Oaks. It may be tough for her to win, but she
could place at attractive odds. Overall Score: C
UNLIMITED
BUDGET(Street
Sense - Unlimited Pleasure, by Valid Appeal)
Race
record: 4-4-0-0 ($610,200)
Unlimited
Budget proved her ability and class at 1 1/8 miles last year with a 1
¼ length victory in the Demoiselle Stakes (G-2) over future Grade 1
winner Emollient. Unlimited Budget has a classy female family. She's
a half sister to Grade 3 juvenile stakes winners Beacon Shine and
Jardin. Their dam is a half sister to Super Derby hero Outofthebox
and a half sister bore multiple graded stakes winner Tackleberry.
Unlimited Budget had two strong preps in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes
and Fair Grounds Oaks. Overall Score: A
Race
Analysis:
Saying
that there's a ton of speed in the Oaks is an understatement. Some
of these fillies are so talented that they've simply overwhelmed
their competition, although they don't appear speed crazy and should
handle sitting farther behind a brisk pace. Six of the last ten Oaks
heroines pressed or set the pace throughout the race while two sat
mid-pack early and two were closers.
Three
fillies, Dreaming of Julia, Close Hatches and Unlimited Budget have
already proved themselves at 1 1/8 miles. Three haven't tried the
distance but they have the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles, Midnight
Lucky, Silsita and Pure Fun. Princess of Sylmar, Seaneen Girl and
Rose to Gold are borderline to get 1 1/8 miles and Beholder has a
miler pedigree.
It's
tough to chose between Dreaming of Julia, Close Hatches and
Unlimited Budget. All three have demoralized the competition.
Midnight Lucy is an unknown. She's clearly talented but tackles proven stakes winners after her record-breaking win over a souped up track. Pure Fun looks could be a
surprise. She's been stuck racing over Polytrack and turf with
average results. The best race of her career came over the Churchill
dirt and she'll sit off of what could be a hot pace.
Dreaming
of Julia ran a monster race last time out, earning her highest speed
figure to date, almost ten points higher than her previous race. She
may regress slightly off of that figure. Unlimited Budget has
improved in every race and also recorded a career best figure in her
last. The number jump wasn't as steep. Close
Hatches is also improving gradually in every race.
#4
Unlimited Budget (7-2)
#11
Close Hatches (6-1)
#8
Dreaming of Julia (3-1)
#7
Pure Fun (30-1) longshot pick
Read More
Journalism was made the 4-5 morning line favorite in a field of eight that was drawn Tuesday for...
This is the first installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Breeders’ Cup Classic horses...
This week's Prospect Watch highlights a collection of exceptionally well-bred runners making their racing debuts or early career...
Excellent Truth got the highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure among last week's U.S. stakes winners, earning a...
The 2025 freshman sire standings are taking shape with Yaupon firmly establishing himself as the leader with eight...