2013 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Pedigree Profiles
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I reviewed the last ten
winners of the Kentucky Derby to see how many had won or placed in
stakes races as two year olds. Six of the ten (Funny Cide, Smarty
Jones, Barbaro, Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver) had won
a stakes race at two, but only three colts (Street Sense, Mine That
Bird and Super Saver) had won a Graded Stakes. Two Derby victors,
Giacomo and I'll Have Another, placed in a graded stakes race at age
two.
The Breeders' Cup
Juvenile has practically no bearing on three year old form. Only two
Kentucky Derby winners in the last ten years even raced in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the remarkable Champion Street Sense and Mine
That Bird, who finished twelfth.
The trend of
late-maturing two year olds improving their form as three year olds
held strong in the last decade. The majority (7) of the Kentucky
Derby winners won their maiden between September and November of the
previous year. Three precocious youngsters won their maidens in July
or August while two Kentucky Derby champs, Monarchos and Fusaichi
Pegasus, had hit the board as two year olds, but didn't win their
maidens until early January of the following year.
If this year's crop of
Triple Crown aspirants follows the trend of the last decade, chances
are good that next year's Kentucky Derby hero has made between two to
three starts, has been victorious in one or two of those starts and
has placed in a stakes race, possibly graded, between August and
December. Chances are good that he (or she) didn't run in this
year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Let's take a look at some
of the runner-ups in this year's graded stakes races to determine
which colts have the pedigree and potential to make an impact on the
2013 Kentucky Derby.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Delhomme won his maiden
in his second attempt, in October. He made a strong effort in the
Remsen Stakes, leading through moderate fractions only to tire in the
final stages to finish third, beaten only ¾ length by Overanalyze
and Normandy Invasion.
Delhomme's pedigree is
distance challenged. His sire, the late Dixie Union, is noted for
getting middle-distance types. The stallion's sole winner at classic
distances is last year's Belmont Stakes Hero Union Rags. Delhomme's
damsire won a stakes race at 1 1/8 miles, but his daughter's progeny
haven't been able to go that far, let alone classic distances. Art
Show, Delhomme's stakes winning dam never won past 1 1/16 miles.
Delhomme's running style and middle distance pedigree may hinder him
should he make it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
DYNAMIC
SKY(Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted
Humor)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Dynamic Sky jumped into
stakes competition in his first start, finishing third in the Vandal
Stakes at Woodbine. He followed that effort with a victory in the
Simcoe Stakes over the same track in August. A month later, the Casse trainee was wide throughout the running of the Dixianna
Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and survived a claim of foul for
second place after lugging in. He was beaten a length by
front-running Joha. In his first attempt over the dirt in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Dynamic Sky was again pushed wide and had to
steady. He finished up in sixth place.
Dynamic Sky owns miler's
pedigree. The majority of his sire Sky Mesa's offspring are best up
to 1 1/16 miles, although he has produced one listed winner (Masked
Maiden) at 1 1/4 miles over Polytrack. Dynamic Sky's young distaff
sire Distorted Humor so far appears to be imparting speed to his
daughters' 16 stakes winning offspring. As a broodmare sire,
Distorted Humor is represented by one stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles
(Joes Blazing Aaron) and none going farther.
Although Dynamic Sky has predominant
dirt attributes in his pedigree, his personal preference, at least
for now, may be for Polytrack and turf. His dam Murani won the 1 1/2
mile Flaming Page Stakes over the Woodbine lawn. Other stakes winning
offspring from this female line also prefered the turf.
FRAC
DADDY (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Frac Daddy drew off to a
9 3/4 length victory while traveling 1 1/16 miles in his second
start. Three weeks later in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2),
the McPeek trainee battled through the Churchill stretch with the
more experienced Uncaptured. Frac Daddy was denied victory by a slim
neck while out-gaming the third place finisher, Dewey Square by 1 ¼
lengths.
Frac Daddy's pedigree is
borderline for classic distances. The young stallion Scat Daddy is
ranked #2 on the second crop sire list in terms of earnings. His
progeny have won stakes races up to 1 1/8 miles over dirt and
synthetics and he has one stakes winner, Lady of Shamrock, who won
the 1 ¼ miles American Oaks over turf. Frac Daddy's damsire,
three-time Horse of the Year Skip Away is represented by only three
stakes winners as a broodmare sire. The farthest winning distance was
recorded by Caixa Electronica in the 1 1/8 Charles Town Classic.
Frac Daddy's dam never
won beyond six furlongs, however his second dam Power Play (by Fast
Play) won the 1 ¼ miles Delaware 'Cap, so there is hope that Frac
Daddy could mature into a legitimate Classic contender.
FURY
KAPCORI (Tiznow - Gin Running, by
Go for Gin)
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Fury Kapcori won his
maiden in August in his second start. He's competed in three stakes
races, including the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. The son of two-time
Horse of the Year Tiznow beat lesser company in the one mile Charlie
Palmer Futurity at Fresno. In the Real Quiet Stakes and CashCall
Futurity, Fury Kapcori never relaxed and found himself battling every
step of the way, only to be beaten a combined 1 ¾ lengths by Carving
in the Real Quiet Stakes and Violence in the CashCall.
Fury Kapcori owns a
stamina oriented pedigree perfect for classic distances. His sire
Tiznow has produced a Belmont Stakes winner (D'Tara), Travers hero
(Colonel John) and a Dubai World Cup Champion (Well Armed). Fury
Kapcori's damsire is 1994 Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin. The
stallion is a direct male descendant of super sire Ribot. Go for
Gin's daughters have bore 13 stakes winners. Only one, (Manhattan
Sky), is a winner at about 1 ¼ miles. Fury Kapcori is a full
brother to Tizfiz, a multiple stakes winner who has been victorious
at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn. Fury Kapcori 's half brother Dixie
Commander (by Dixie Union) won the 1 1/16 miles Turf Paradise Derby.
Juvenile Champ and Horse of the Year Favorite Trick is also descended
from this female family.
If Fury Kapcori can learn
to relax behind horses during the first part of his races, he may
develop into a top classic contender.
NORMANDY
INVASION (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Normandy Invasion won his
maiden in early November, in his second start. He was ambitiously
placed in the Remsen Stakes (G-2), but closed with a furious rush to
just miss catching the more eperienced Overanalyze at the wire. The bay colt jumped onto many early Derby
watch lists with his close defeat in the
1 1/8 mile stakes race.
Despite his strong run
down the stretch in the Remsen, Normandy Invasion's pedigree is
suspect for 1 ¼ miles. His sire Tapit has given us three stakes
winners at 1 ¼ miles, so stamina isn't an issue there. However,
Normandy Invasion's damsire Boston Harbor is represented by only one
restricted winner at 1 ¼ miles. She is by Belmont Stakes winner
Point Given. Normandy Invasion's second damsire Raise A Native is a
Brilliant Chef-de-race, indicating that he passes brilliance sprint
speed to his descendants.
With his from-the-clouds
running style Normandy Invasion may be able to overcome his pedigree
shortcommings, but for some, the debate will rage about his late
timing in the stretch. Is he a legitimate contender or just passing
tired horses? The names Ice Box and Closing Argument come to mind.
VEGAS
NO SHOW (Hard Spun - The Hess Express, by Lord Carson)
Race Record: 6-2-1-1-
($114,000)
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Vegas No Show won his
maiden in his second start in late July. He's raced in four stakes,
three of them graded, with an overall stakes record of 4-1-1-0. His
best placing in a graded stakes was a troubled second in the Nashua
Stakes, beaten three lengths by Violence.
Vegas No Show's pedigree
is a bit light on stamina. His sire Hard Spun has produced one graded
stakes winner (Questing) at 1 ¼ miles, and the leading second crop
sire may eventually sire a classic winner. The distaff side of Vegas
No Show's pedigree is strong on speed. As a broodmare sire, Lord
Carson imparts speed to his daughter's offspring. They seldom win
beyond 1 1/16 miles. The lone stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles happens
to be Vegas No Show's half brother, Bullsbay (by Tiznow). Vegas No
Show has class in his female family, in the form of three stakes
winning half siblings and a stakes placed dam. He also has an
interesting 3S x 3D inbreeding to Turkoman, who is the damsire of
Hardspun and the damsire of The Hess Express, Vegas No Show's dam.
Turkoman is best known as the damsier of Belmont Stakes hero Point
Given, and Travers winner Colonel John.
Vegas No Show may do well
in the preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but when the question
is asked, he may find the race a furlong too far.
Below are four colts who
have won or placed in a graded stakes this year and whose pedigrees
have been examined at length:
BERN
IDENTITY(Bernstein - Maddalena, by Good and Tough) won
the Sanford Stakes (G-2) and was the runner-up as the favorite in the
Delta Jackpot (G-3) after a troubled trip. Read his complete pedigree
profile here.
GOLDENCENTS (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's
Gold) runner up in the Champagne Stakes (G-1) and winner of the
Delta Jackpot (G-3) Read his complete pedigree profile here.
HE'S
HAD ENOUGH (Tapit - Amelia, by
Dixieland Band) was unplaced in two graded stakes races over
Polytrack before running down Shanghai Bobby in the stretch of the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's Had Enough finished only a head shy of
the probably Juvenile Champ in the Juvenile, then came back to finish
a lackluster fifth in the CashCall Futurity. Read his complete
pedigree profile here.
KNOW
MORE(Lion Heart - Seattle Qui, by
Seattle Slew) winner of the Best Pal (G-2) and runner up in the
Frontrunner Stakes (G-1). Read his complete pedigree profile here.
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