Who are top contenders in Sunday's Bashford Manor?

The six-furlong, $225,000 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday attracted a competitive full field of 13 colts and geldings. Three will exit with black-type status, but only one can remain undefeated or earn their first victory should a maiden win.

Typical of early-season juvenile stakes races, distance-challenged sprinters are prevalent in the six-furlong event, and they may not be around for a shot at the 2025 Kentucky Derby, but you never know.

Though it was downgraded from Grade 3 status in 2022 and has lost some of its luster, the Bashford Manor has produced notable winners since its inception in 1902.

Recent winners include 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall (1989); Breeders' Cup Juvenile heroes Boston Harbor (1996), Favorite Trick (1997) and Classic Empire (2016) and current stakes record holder Kodiak Kowboy (2007).

This year's event includes offspring of three first-crop sires: 2-year-old champion Game Winner, Travers (G1) hero Tiz the Law and Louisiana sire Bobby's Wicked One.

The Bashford Manor is carded as the ninth race of 11 on Sunday's card, with a 4:55 p.m. EDT post time.

The tools used to handicap 2-year-old dirt sprint stakes include their pedigree, class, mental ability (is the entrant focused, switches leads, targets, and passes horses), speed ratings and competition quality, post-race breezes, and trainer stats. Mental ability includes determining whether the horse is focused, can switch leads, and can target and pass horses.

Let's look at the top contenders.

1. Spiralizer (Twirling Candy - Jotown, by Speightstown) (Gaffalione, Asmussen) (5-1)

Spiralizer broke from the rail and moved towards the rail when coming out of the gate. He bravely squeezed through a narrow opening to grab the lead. He wasn't challenged at any point and was professional down the lane. He completed 5 furlongs in 58.48 seconds with a 12.46-second final quarter, winning by a comfortable two lengths and beating Mo Hair Sam by 2 1/2 lengths.

Spiralizer earned a 76 Brisnet Speed Rating and returned last week with a five-furlong move in 1:02.2.

According to Race Lens, Steve Asmussen wins with 28 percent of his 2-year-old last-out maiden winners.

Pedigree notes: Sold for $550,000 at the OBS March 2-year-old sale after getting a furlong in 10 seconds flat, Spiralizer has a precocious classy sprinter-miler pedigree. Twirling Candy is an above-average sire of juveniles. 

Spiralizer is the first foal out of a daughter of multiple graded winning Jojo Warrior. That one is a half to Frizette (G1) heroine A Z Warrior, plus stakes winners E Z Warrior and J Z Warrior. As a note for pedigree geeks, Spiralizer is inbred to the superior mare Toussaund 4x5 through the half-brothers Chester House (Twirling Candy's damsire) and Empire Maker (sire of Pioneerof the Nile, who is Jotown's damsire).

10. Heat (Munnings - Too Cool to Dance, by Kitten's Joy) (Irad Ortiz Jr., Mark Casse) (4-1)

Exiting the far outside post in a seven-horse field, Heat was a touch slow and broke outward in his debut over Gulfstream's Tapeta course. He settled off the pacesetter's flank, and the pair opened up. Heat won the argument down the lane and pulled clear by a length. Heat was professional, switching leads, not bumping his rival, and he had no excess leg movement such as high leg action or paddling.

Heat traveled five furlongs in 57.55 seconds, with a sharp 12.23-second final furlong, and earned a 91 Brisnet Speed Rating. His 89 late pace figure is the second highest in the field.  

Heat's post-race work was comparable to his pre-race four furlongs in 49.8 seconds. His final work for the Bashford Manor was five furlongs in 1:00.20 over Churchill's main track.

Mark Casse wins with 14 percent of his last out maiden 2-year-old winners.

Pedigree notes: Heat should handle dirt and may eventually appreciate two turns on the lawn.

Munnings is an above-average juvenile sire. Heat is the first foal out of his dam, who won and placed from a mile to 1 1/4 miles on turf. Too Cool to Dance's full sister Sharp Kitty is a restricted stakes-winning turf miler, and her Hard Spun half-sister Nomorerichblondes won the UAE Oaks (G3).

5. Bodacious (Smokem - My Love Magnet, by Bodemeister) (Rosario, Periban) (9-2)

Bodacious was quarter-horsed to the lead in his debut, zipping his first quarter in 21.99 seconds and getting a half in 45.95 seconds. He won for fun under a hand ride, flashing under the wire in 52.01 seconds for the 4 1/2 furlongs. 

Bodacious beat a next-out winner and runner-up and recorded a 102 Brisnet speed rating. He's logged a trio of recent solo works, including a pre-race five furlongs in 59.8 seconds.

Jorge Periban scores with 29 percent of last-out 2-year-old maiden winners in their next start. Last year, he shipped Tom's Regret to Churchill to capture the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes in his second start.

Pedigree notes: Bodacious has a sprinter's pedigree. He is the only winner in his immediate family. His second dam Alec's Moon won the Portland Meadows Oaks, and his third dam Bello Cielo was second in the Hollywood Oaks (G1). 

7. Enduring Spirit (Tiz the Law - Life Starts, by Into Mischief) (Rey Gutierrez, Rafael Ramos) (10-1) 

After flashing brief speed in his 4 1/2-furlong debut at Keeneland, Enduring Spirit returned at Churchill in a five-furlong contest. He was sharp out of the gate, immediately opening up by two lengths. Conquering Cat made a couple of runs at him but never got closer than a half-length. Enduring Spirit was professional down the lane, winning by a length, and stopped the clock in 57.98 seconds with a 12.53-second final furlong. He earned an 88 Brisnet Speed Rating.

Enduring Spirit returned to the work tab with a 48.0-second four-furlong breeze, quicker than his pre-race move. He then posted a bullet five furlongs in 1:01.6. He will take the blinkers off for the Bashford Manor.

Besides Conquering Cat, who returned to win, Enduring Spirit bested two other rivals that hit the board in their next start.  

Pedigree notes: Enduring Spirit should handle routes and could be proficient on the lawn.

Tiz the Law, currently the fifth-ranked first-crop sire, was the 2020 Travers hero. Enduring Spirit is his first winner from seven starters, although four have placed. Expect them to shine at longer sprints and around two turns.

The distaff class in Enduring Spirit pedigree skips to the third generation and includes multiple graded-stakes winning turf miler Doubles Partner and international Group 1 winners Zabeel Prince and Rizeea.

2. Ivan the Great (Kantharos - I'm Mom's Favorite, by Indian Charlie) (Antonio Fresu, Doug O'Neill) (6-1)

Ivan the Great was quick out of the gate but outrun through a hot 21.86-second first quarter. He blew the turn, going seven-wide, and was green down the lane, unable to keep a straight path and switching leads. Despite this, he closed quickly to lose by a nose. Ivan the Great runs with his head up.

Doug O'Neill outfits Ivan the Great with a set of blinkers, and he breezed in company with Debutante candidate So There She Was in a pre-race four-furlong gate work in 47.6 seconds at Santa Anita. The pair broke together but the filly outworked him by a half-length.

18 percent of Doug O'Neill's 2-year-old maidens who finished in the money in their last start graduate in their next outing.

Pedigree notes: Ivan the Great has a sprinter-miler pedigree. Kantharos is noted for getting sprinter-miler types.

His dam I'm Mom's Favorite won the six-furlong Miss Preakness Stakes, and her daughter bore Grade 3-winning sprinter Frost Free. Ivan the Great's third dam is multiple Grade 1 heroine Tout Charmant, who earned over $1 million in 29 starts.

3. Vinegar Hill (Frosted - Coronado Rose, by Coronado's Quest)  (Adam Beschizza, John Ennis) (12-1)

Vinegar Hill broke on top in his second start and was never seriously threatened in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint at Churchill. He was professional, staying in his lane and switching leads, but runs with his head up. He completed 4 1/2 furlongs in 51.82 seconds, 1.7 seconds off the track record set in 2008, and earned an 86 Brisnet Speed Rating.

John Ennis gave Vinegar Hill a three-furlong breeze for the Bashford Manor. The trainer is winless in five recent starts with last out maiden 2-year-old winners.

Pedigree notes: Vinegar Hill should handle 1 1/16 miles.

Frosted is an above-average sire of juveniles. He was second in the 2015 Belmont Stakes and was a multiple-graded winner at 1 1/8 miles. Vinegar Hill's damsire is 1998 Travers hero Coronado's Quest. Vinegar Hill's dam Coronado Rose is a stakes-winning sprinter, and his half-sister Flower Mart is a stakes-placed turf miler.

9. War Tax (Outwork - Transaction Tax, by Gemologist) (Jose Gomez, Carlos Martin) (8-1)

War Tax was hustled to the lead in his Aqueduct debut but relaxed after opening up by two lengths. He was hand-ridden the entire way, athletically cut the corner, and was professional down the lane, although he had high knee action.

War Tax completed five furlongs in 58.37 seconds, with a sharp 12.13-second final furlong. He earned an 80 Brisnet Speed Rating. Two rivals have returned since, but neither hit the board in their next outing.

Carlos Martin is winless in three recent starts with last-out maiden 2-year-old winners making their second start.

Pedigree notes: War Tax should handle a mile to 1 1/16 miles.

Outwork is an average 2-year-old sire. War Tax is a second foal, and his half-brother Victory Money is a winner. There are no stakes winners in the first three generations of his distaff line.

6. Politicallycorrect (Violence - Heron Watch, by Candy Ride (ARG)) (Jose Ortiz, Chris Davis) (8-1)

In his debut at Churchill, Politicallycorrect broke outward from post 7 and vied four wide for the lead, which he grabbed without much urging. He settled into a good rhythm and was professional down the lane, turning back a challenge by the runner-up and winning by 1 1/4 lengths.

Politicallycorrect was timed in 1:04.78 for 5 1/2 furlongs and earned a 77 Brisnet speed rating. Only one rival hit the board in their next outing. Politicallycorrect posted a pair of four-furlong works at Turfway for the Bashford Manor, one in 48.0 seconds and the next in 48.4 seconds.

Trainer Chris Davis has a winner and a runner-up from seven last out maiden 2-year-old winners.

Pedigree notes: Politicallycorrect should handle two turns.

Violence is an above-average sire of juveniles. 

Although his second dam is a Grade 3 winner in Japan, the bright spot in Politicallycorrect's distaff line is his third dam Lite Light, winner of Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Oaks, Coaching Club American Oaks, Santa Anita Oaks and Las Virgenes.

Conquering Cat, Happyflyer, Moneyline, Mo Hair Sam, and Smoken Wicked haven't shown the speed to compete with the rest of these.

Analysis

Eleven of the last 12 Bashford Manor heroes won their previous start. Three shipped from Belmont, Monmouth or Santa Anita to win. Pace pressers and setters were most successful, although two won from three lengths or farther back.

Favorites won eight times and were second twice. Steve Asmussen's charges won four of the last 12 editions and is the only repeat winner.

In a full field of 2-year-olds, anything can happen and always does.

1. Spiralizer turns around in 17 days but won his debut comfortably without being fully extended.

5. Bodacious could regress from his 102 Brisnet speed rating. He's stepping out of state-bred company, facing winners at a longer distance and shipping, although his trainer has successfully shipped to Churchill.

10. Heat tries dirt for the first time but had a decent work at Churchill. The downside is that according to Race Lens, Mark Casse and Irad Ortiz Jr. are winless in four starts together over the last 90 days.

7. Enduring Spirit posted a post-race work faster than his pre-race breeze. Horses that bounce out of their races with quicker works show signs of progression in their next start. Florida-based trainer Rafael Ramos won with one other last-out maiden from five starters.

Selections

1. Spiralizer (5-1)

10. Heat (4-1)

5. Bodacious (9-2)

7. Enduring Spirit (10-1)