What is the Best Kentucky Derby Running Style?

As the 139^th running of the Kentucky Derby approaches, attention turns to picking a winner.  Accordingly there is a lot of discussion about the running style that will win the Run for the Roses.

 

Just the other day I heard an expert on the radio say, “The big closers don’t win the Kentucky Derby.” He also went on to mention, “That I don’t like horses that have a way of finding trouble.” Does that point of view have any merit? If it does, then we can certainly eliminate Revolutionary as a contender.

 

I have also been hearing talk about how Goldencents is the horse that has the kind of front running style that can lead to success in the Derby.  Or is that front-runner going to be the speedy Itsmyluckyday?  Can either of these horses relax on the lead and carry their speed for the ten furlongs?

 

There are so many questions to be asked and there will be even more people with the answers to those questions. I am the kind of handicapper that prefers to stick to the facts, so I made a chart that shows the running lines for all of the Derby winners since 2000.

 

 

As you can see War Emblem, in 2002, was the only horse to win the Derby as a front-runner, in gate to wire style. None of the other 12 winners had a lead before the one mile point of call.

 

Five of the victors from the first Saturday in May were what I have called deep closers. Those horses trailed by more than double digits at the first point of call and rallied from way behind: 19^th, 18^th, 18^th, 15^th, and 13^th place.

 

Three more of them, I considered to be closers.  Those horses stayed mid-pack and began making their come from behind moves after about a mile of the race.

 

Finally there were four horses that won at Churchill Downs as stalkers. They stayed within a few lengths of the lead in the early stages and took control of the race in the stretch.

 

Interestingly, only four of the horses waited to take the lead until right near the finish (I’ll Have Another, Animal Kingdom, Giacomo, and Monarchos). All the other winners had gotten to the front by the “stretch” point of call.

 

I hope that this research will help you make an educated Derby choice. I know that it has helped me make my Derby pick. Revolutionary is a closer or deep closer and that is the running style that has been successful in eight of the last thirteen runnings of the Derby.  It is OK for a horse to get behind and Revolutionary has shown the courage and determination to find his way through a crowd of horses.

 

[For more analysis of Derby trends and running styles check out the 2013 Kentucky Derby Super Screener]