Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Gotham Stakes odds, analysis

With the 2018 Kentucky Derby less than 60 days away, the starting gate will begin to fill as horses earn the requisite points. The Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes to be run over one mile at Aqueduct offers 85 of those qualifying points with 50-20-10-5 awarded to the Top 4.

Trainer Dale Romans sends Free Drop Billy and his 14 points to New York, so a second-place finish would bring his total to 34. Firenze Fire, who has earned 24 points at Belmont and Aqueduct, needs a third-place or better effort to qualify.

• Related odds and analysis: San Felipe | Tampa Bay Derby

Speaking of Firenze Fire, his trainer Jason Servis said, "He doesn't get much respect sometimes. He's kind of a Rodney Dangerfield. I don't get it. He ran a mile and an eighth [in the Withers] and it didn't look like he had trouble with it. He kind of made a middle move and just couldn't get to that horse [Avery Island], but it wasn't like he stopped or anything. I think if he's ridden right, he'll get a mile and a quarter. But, he's got to get the points first."

The Gotham is carded as race 10 with post time scheduled for 5:42 pm ET. Here is the field of nine with early odds by Horse Racing Nation:

Dial Operator [ML – 20-1 – Dialed In – Jason Servis/T. McCarthy – 2: 2-0-0 - $50,940 – 0 points] It is amazing to see another another quality New Jersey-bred considering that the foal crop numbered only 124 in 2015. Last year, it was Irish War Cry and now it is this New Farm homebred by Dialed In, out of a mare by their quality sprinter Wildcat Heir. Dial Operator won his first start in a state-bred maiden special weight at Monmouth Park in July. Off until February, he came back running to win an allowance at Laurel. Big challenge for this Jersey-bred.

Cove Blue [ML – 20-1 – Ghostzapper – Romans/Landeros – 5: 1-0-1 - $36,733 – 0 points] Cove Blue was not one of Dale Romans’ bargain 3-year-olds, as this one sold for $300,000 as a yearling. He broke his maiden in his fourth try at Gulfstream and then was a distant third in an allowance. This son of Ghostzapper was not competitive against Derby trail horses like Mississippi, Gotta Go, and Storm Runner. He is yet another one then wants to run on or near the lead. Doesn't appear to be a stakes horse.

Beautiful Shot [ML – 8-1 – Trappe Shot – Desormeaux/Arroyo – 3: 2-0-1 - $91,080 – 0 points] This Florida-bred Calumet Farms runner will be shipping cross-country for the Gotham. His past performances are filled with the names of quality runners like Greyvitos, Mourinho, and Nero, all horses against whom he was competitive. He actually beat Nero in his debut maiden win and then topped Mourinho to win the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita. To close his juvenile season, he finished third behind Greyvitos in the Bob Hope. Trainer Keith Desormeaux has him training smartly. The one-turn mile seems to be the right spot to try the Derby trail. West Coast shipper with a shot.

Whereshetoldmetogo [ML – 12-1 – El Padrino – Pecoraro/Rocco – 8: 3-2-0 - $132,862 – 0 points] This Maryland-bred is big on experience with eight career starts under his belt. Most recently he won a seven-furlong stakes at Gulfstream Park. However, in previous starts against names like Bal Harbour, Mask, Dak Attack and Kowboy Karma he did not contend. Although the one-turn mile appears to be a good choice, he faces a similar class challenge in the Gotham. Hasn’t fared well at this level.

Firenze Fire [ML – 3-1 – Poseidon’s Warrior – Jason Servis/Franco – 7: 4-1-0 - $589,100 – 24 points] Firenze Fire is just about 10 points away from wrapping up a spot in the Derby starting gate, and the Gotham seems like the ideal spot to do it. The turn back to the one-turn mile seems to be just what this consistent runner wants. His two most recent victories, the Jerome and the Champagne (G1), both came at that distance. His performance going the nine furlongs in defeat to Avery Island was solid, and Firenze Fire should get a good setup to close as there appears to plenty of frontrunners signed up here. Ready to stamp his Derby ticket.

Free Drop Billy [ML – 2-1 – Union Rags – Romans/D. Davis – 6: 2-3-0 - $495,220 – 14 points] The Kentucky Derby puzzle pieces seem to be falling into place for Romans. His decision to scratch Free Drop Billy from the Fountain of Youth looks brilliant on the heels of stablemate Promises Fulfilled's victory. As I said in the preview for that race, this son of Union Rags has taken on top competition since he broke his maiden first out, and he has fared well in all races except the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In the Holy Bull he was second to the brilliant performance of Audible, but then has well clear of Tiz Mischief. His going to get quick enough fractions to set up his late run. The one to beat.

Old Time Revival [ML – 15-1 – Brethren – Decker/Hamilton – 5: 1-1-1 - $48,400 – 0 points] This one almost took the one-mile Miracle Wood wire-to-wire as a 34-1 longshot, but got caught in the final strides. He is certainly going to ensure that there is an honest pace and is likely to be one of the longer prices in here, too. Quick Laurel shipper.

Nine Route [ML – 12-1 – The Factor – J. Englehart/Carmouche – 4: 3-0-0 - $127,200 – 0 points] This New York-bred is on a three-race win streak against state-breds on this Aqueduct surface. Last out in February, he won a stake on the front-end on a sloppy Big A track. He is likely to have front end pressure in his first try in open company. Home track advantage for the New York-bred.

Enticed [ML – 9-2 – Medaglia d’Oro – McLaughlin/J. Alvarado – 4: 2-0-1 - $230,680 – 13 points] This Godolphin home bred was highly rated as a 2-year-old, especially after he won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) against a strong field. His 2018 debut in the Holy Bull was a disappointment when he finished fourth, beaten by 14 lengths. The one-turn mile may be the key for this son of It’s Tricky. She did some excellent running in one-turn races like the Acorn and the Ogden Phipps. His best makes him a major contender.

Summary: There are plenty of early runners signed up for this one-turn mile, but the better horses seem to be the closers. Free Drop Billy is the horse to beat and could give Romans his second Derby horse in as many weeks. I’m not sure what to expect from Enticed after his lackluster performance in the Holy Bull. Firenze Fire fits very well in this Grade 3 event. For a bit of a price in the exotics, the California shipper Beautiful Shot is interesting. He ran very well last year against some respected West Coast 3-year-olds and is training lights-out.