Handicapping Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4

One of the things that I like most about the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is that bettors need to approach each pool differently. As it gets closer to the first Saturday in May, horses earn enough points to qualify. By the time Pool 4 closes at 6 p.m. Sunday, there will be only one major prep race left, so a majority of the field will be set. In Pool 4, the wagering is closest to the way it will be on Derby day.

Pool 4 features seven wagering interests that were not a part of Pool 3. That group includes Gotham (G3) winner Enticed; Gronkowski, winner of the European trail's Burradon Stakes at Britain’s Newcastle; Hofburg, the Florida Derby runner-up for trainer Bill Mott; Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up Lone Sailor; Mississippi, the Mark Casse-trained third-place finisher in the Florida Derby; Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Quip; Sunland Derby (G3) winner Runaway Ghost; and the Steve Asmussen-trained Title Ready, who finished fourth in the Rebel (G2).

Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, who won last year’s running with Always Dreaming, leads all trainers with three contenders (Audible, Magnum Moon, and Noble Indy). Trainers with a pair of wagering interests include four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert (Justify and Solomini), Asmussen (Combatant and Title Ready), Casse (Flameaway and Mississippi) and Dale Romans (Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled). Casse, Asmussen, and Romans are all seeking their first Kentucky Derby victory. 

In Pool 4 we are not going to find a great value like Mendelssohn was in the first three offerings. He was the kind of horse that you look for in the earlier pools with odds that now look even more generous after his brilliant victory in the UAE Derby last weekend.

Since the qualifying point system began in 2013, the favorite has won the Derby every year with odds ranging from 2.30-1 to 5.40-1. In those cases, you could have gotten better odds in Pool 4, but is it worth the risk of having to get through the final month of training in good health? I say no, likely Derby favorites have had to scratch out just before the race on several instances.

Summary: Pool 4 seems best suited for those that want to bet against the favorites: Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic and Justify. It is worth watching the price on the other two Pletcher runners, Magnum Moon and Noble Indy, because they might get overlooked having not run as recently. Three horses listed at 50-1 — Lone Sailor, Quip, and Runaway Ghost — have had some buzz about them recently and may deserve a wager.

Once again there is win and exacta wagering available. In either case, I would wait until after Saturday’s three prep races are run before making a bet.