Trying to Handicap the Blue Grass Stakes? It’s a “Bear”
The last chance derby, aka $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) is run on Saturday at Keeneland. A full field of 14 is scheduled to break from the starting gate at approximately 5:45pm EDT for the 11th race on the card. They’ll travel 1 1/8 miles around the synthetic oval surface.
This is the last chance for connections of 3-year-olds to grab a spot in the 2014 Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 3rd. Right now, none of the fourteen (14) starters have enough Derby system points to get there. Coastline has the most with 13 points and a handful of others have less than 10. The Blue Grass awards one hundred (100) points to the winner with forty (40) points to the runner-up, third is worth twenty (20) points and ten (10) points awarded to the fourth place finisher.
It appears that it will require 25 points or more to make travel plans to Louisville to run on the first Saturday in May. So Coastline and Dance With Fate (8 pts.) would need a Top 3 finish while all others need to win or be the runner-up.
The 3-1 Morning Line favorite Bobby’s Kitten has never raced on a synthetic surface. All five (5) starts have come on grass. FACT: Since Keeneland switched the main oval from natural dirt to synthetic surface (Summer of 2006), the Post Time favorite has not won the Blue Grass Stakes.
Regardless of who wins and/or can move onto the Kentucky Derby, they will surely be overlooked due to success on a synthetic surface. Not so fast. FACT: The last six out of ten Kentucky Derby winners had at least one race on turf or a synthetic surface prior to wearing the blanket of roses.
For the entries and Morning Line odds for the entire Blue Grass Stakes field, click here.
THE PLAY: $10 WP #1 and $2 EX Box 1-5-9
Recapping posted selections from Friday, April 11th at Pimlico, had 6 winners from 9 races, including the Pick-5 ($268.56 from $24.30 investment) (2 Top Selection; payoffs in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.00 (2nd race), $7.40 (5th), $5.00 (6th), $32.20 (7th), $9.00 (8th) and $5.40 (9th).
The BEST BET of the Day (16: 2-5-5) Exchange Student (5th race: 4-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) circled the far turn three deep, advanced to a striking position in mid-stretch but could not get to the favorite, coming up a length short, return to $6.00 to PLACE and $4.20 to SHOW.
The LONGSHOT PICK (16: 4-5-0) Make Me a Deal (9th race: 10-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) broke slow and never got involved until too late, earning the dreaded “Even effort” comment line, finishing a well beaten 5th.
FYI – the BEST BET of the Day selection will never be a M/L favorite and the LONGSHOT PICK will simply be the runner having the highest M/L odds among my top picks for an entire card.
PLEASE NOTE: Statistics provided for the BEST BET and LONGSHOT PICK in parentheses represent the Number of Picks: Wins-Places-Shows. For example, the BEST BET (10: 1-2-3) was picked 10 times resulting in 1 winner, 2 places and 3 shows. In the past, I would reset these numbers at the start of each meet. For 2014, I reset these numbers on Jan. 1st in order to chart results on a yearly basis.
Selections for Saturday, Apr. 12th at Old Hilltop Top posted below based on track being FAST and TURF FIRM. Adjustments may be mnade after scratches are announced at approximately 10:00am EDT.
Soup of the Day at Pimlico: Chicken Noodle
1st race – $16,000 Claiming for 3 y.o. and up – 6 furlongs
#2 – Golden Rings (7-5)
#6 – King Racer (8-5)
#4 – Devil’s Peak (6-1)
2nd race – $15,000 Claiming for 3 y.o. and up – 1 1/16 miles
#1 – Respectful Ed (7-2)
#6 – Hanky Doodle (8-5)
#3 – Greek Default (10-1)
3rd race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for F&M 3 y.o. and up – 1 1/16 miles
#7 – Mary’s Mystique (4-5)
#6 – Don’tstop Theparty (7-2)
#5 – Seventh Ruler (6-1)
4th race – $15,000 Claiming for F&M 3 y.o. and up – 6 furlongs
#6 – Sandbag (2-1) *** BEST BET ***
#7 – Brightlingsea (12-1)
#2 – Irish Irene (9-5)
10 cent Jackpot Pick-5… Carryover: $20,742
The Play: 3,7,8 / 2,4,5 / 4,8,12 / 4,5,8 / 1,5,8 ($24.30)
5th race – $40,000 Maidens for F&M 3 y.o. and up – 5 furlongs on TURF
#3 – The Careless Cat (9-5)
#7 – Sconset Express (10-1)
#8 – Recoupe (9-2)
6th race – $40,000 Optional Claiming N1X for 3 y.o. fillies – 6 furlongs
#2 – City in Sky (8-5)
#4 – New Zone (2-1)
#5 – Antietam Creek (5-1)
7th race – $35,000 Starter Allowance for 3 y.o. and up – 1 mile on TURF
#8 – Rum Tum Tugger (15-1) $$$ LONGSHOT PLAY $$$
#12 – Atlantic Seaboard (3-1)
#4 – Datt Melody (10-1)
8th race – $25,000 Optional Claiming N2X for 3 y.o. and up – 1 mile on TURF
#5 – Talk Show Man (6-1)
#4 – Saint Pierre (6-1)
#8 – Guts and Glory (3-1)
9th race – $25,000 Optional Claiming N2X for 3 y.o. and up – 1 1/16 miles
#1 – Wealth to Me (5-2) – if late scratch, not #1A – Parody
#5 – Kennesaw Mountain (4-1)
#8 – D C Dancer (12-1)
10th race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. and up – 6 furlongs
#1 – It’s My Perogative (9-5)
#7 – Photogenic (20-1)
#6 – Run Tayler Run (6-1)
Food for Thought: Baseball Hall of Famers are typically successful in only 3 of 10 plate appearances. Think about it… Good Luck!