Preakness 2016: An Insider's Look at the Middle Jewel
Two weeks ago twenty (20) three-year-olds broke from the Churchill Downs starting gate in the 142nd Kentucky Derby. If you weren’t a fan of the undefeated Eclipse Award winning Nyquist, Derby second choice Exaggerator or third betting choice Gun Runner, then your assessment of this Chalkfest could probably be wrapped up into one word, “BORING!”.
Nyquist’s
win marked the fourth consecutive year that the betting favorite has prevailed
in the Kentucky Derby. The years of cashing huge Exactas, Trifectas and
life-changing Superfectas on the first Saturday in May have been long
forgotten. Leaving those who loaded up on double-digit longshots feeling as
empty as their pockets at the end of a long, hard day at work… or the track.
Been there, done that! And the two weeks until the Preakness Stakes seems like
an eternity. You’re chomping at the bit to bet back your Derby horse that had an
excuse, back a “new shooter” the wise guys are touting or resign yourself to
taking the Derby winner or runner-up at much lower odds.
For the 141st running of the Preakness Stakes, this isn’t your father’s Pimlico. Gone is the rock hard racing surface that would yield near track record times as if the thoroughbreds were running on the nearby I-83 surface. Through the first few racing days of the meet, the dirt surface has played very fair, if not favoring runners who come from off the pace.
In addition to how the track surface will play (unless it drastically changes
come Saturday), being at Pimlico in the A.M. since most of the runners rolled
into Old Hilltop on Thursday morning, I made an important observation. Nyquist looked exactly the same as he
did when I saw him in the mornings of Derby Week on the Churchill Downs
backstretch. Cool, calm and collected. Nothing bothers him. From the time he
stepped off the horse van at Pimlico just three days after winning the Derby,
he looked no worse for wear, as if he hadn’t just run in the most taxing race
of his life.
With that being said, though I bet against him two weeks ago, I’m not going to make the same mistake twice… even if the Pimlico dirt oval comes up sloppy, which plays into Exaggerator’s wheelhouse. I believe that Nyquist is special in that no matter who rallies to draw on even terms with him in the stretch, the Derby winner will find another gear and turn back any/all challengers.
Who
can complete the exotics, or if you disagree and think Nyquist or Exaggerator are vulnerable?
In my humble opinion here are the candidates based on my observation of those three-year-olds who are scheduled to break from the Starting Gate on Saturday at 6:45pm EDT…
#10 – Fellowship (30-1): Caught a speed favoring CD oval on KY Oaks Day in the race formally known as the Derby Trial. Plus, a one-turn one mile is not a preferable distance, but the connection wanted to get a race into him while at Churchill Downs. Prior to that race, he had raced exclusively in south Florida, mostly at Gulfstream Park which is primarily known for having a heavy speed bias, holding his own always rallying for a minor purse. This week at Pimlico, he has impressed me physically than any other horse who is entered in the Preakness.
#9
– Abiding Star (30-1): Winner of the
Private Terms Stakes and PA Derby, the latter coming while subject to being
quarantined at Parx due to a few cases of the equine herpes virus discovered in
mid-March. Lucky for him and his connections the quarantine was lifted this
past Tuesday, allowing him to leave Parx and ship to Pimlico on Thursday where
track management is still taking precautions by having the Uncle Mo colt housed
in a temporary barn located on the opposite side of the track, far from the
Stakes barn and requiring him and other Parx shippers in for races this weekend
to hit the track for training at 5:00am, one hour before the track normally
opens. These issues aside, Abiding Star is a very fast colt and will likely be
sent to the lead come hell or high water and play catch me if you can.
#11
– Stradivari (8-1): This
late-blooming son of Medaglia d’Oro didn’t make his racing debut until just
over seven months ago a dull fourth place effort at Aqueduct. One month later
at Gulfstream Park in an off the turf maiden event, he blew the field away by 11¼-lengths, was
shelfed for four months and resurfaced at Keeneland to win an allowance race
even more impressively. He has drawn comparisons to the 2006 Preakness winner
Bernardini who likewise was lightly raced and did not run in the KY Derby.
There's zero value in a WIN bet on Nyquist, so here's how I'll play the Preakness...
$1 Tri Key Nyquist on top... 3 w/ 5, 9, 10, 11 ($12)
$1 Tri Part-Wheel with Exaggerator second... 3, 9, 10, 11 w/ 5 w/ 3, 9, 10, 11 ($12)
$1 Tri Part-Wheel with Fellowship third... 3, 5, 9, 11 w/ 3, 5, 9, 11 w/ 10 ($12)