Preakness 2015: Derby Top 3 are no Slam Dunk to repeat Trifecta

Two weeks ago, 18 three-year-olds broke from the Churchill Downs starting gate in the 141st Kentucky Derby. If you weren’t a fan of American Pharoah, Firing Line or Dortmund, then your assessment of the race wrapped up in one word would probably be, “BORING!”. From the first time the field crossed under the wire until American Pharoah was the first to pass under it again, those three maintained their position as the top three.

Been there, done that! And the two weeks until the Preakness Stakes seems like an eternity. You’re chomping at the bit to bet back your Derby horse that had an excuse, play one of the “new shooters”, the wise guys are touting, or resign yourself to taking one of the Top 3 Derby finishers at much lower odds.

For the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes, this isn’t your father’s Pimlico. Throughout this meet, the dirt surface has played very fairly, if not favoring runners who come from off the pace. So toss the notion that the Preakness will be a carbon copy of the Derby. FYI – the turf course has been kind to early speed, a nugget that you can use when handicapping the turf races.

In addition to how the track surface will play (unless it drastically changes come Saturday), being at Pimlico in the A.M. since most of the runners rolled into Old Hilltop on Wednesday, I made an important observation. Two of the Derby top three looked different. American Pharoah and Firing Line looked tired. A stark contrast to the fit colts I saw on the backside at Churchill Downs during Derby Week, appearing in top condition.

Hence, the only one who appeared to have been able to bounce back from that very tiring Derby trip is Dortmund. Following him back to the barn after that 1½ mile gallop, I overheard Baffert’s assistant Jimmy Barnes say to (Dana) Dortmund’s exercise rider, “…looked like he enjoyed this track even more than Churchill.”

With that being said, even though he broke my heart two weeks ago in the Derby, I’ll stay with Dortmund as my top pick in the Preakness.

Who else can complete the exotics, if you believe American Pharoah and/or Firing Line are vulnerable? In my humble opinion here are the candidates…

#3 – Mr. Z (20-1): Don’t read on until you have stopped laughing. He became the poster horse for Ridicule on Tuesday during a three ring circus that saw Ahmed Zayat sell him to Calumet Farm, who promptly entered him in the Preakness. The immediate reaction on social media was, “What a joke!”, “Lukas is crazy!” and “What a laughing stock of horse racing.” Not so say I. His 13th place finish was excusable based on the trip. No, he wasn’t going to win the Derby, but he did not battle the entire 1¼ miles and looks very fit since arriving at Old Hilltop. I can now understand WHY D. Wayne Lukas has run him 13 times. Saturday will be his ninth start since Nov. 1, 2014 (6½ months). That’s endurance. Plus, the Brain Trust at Calumet Farm are not idiots. They just paid a hefty sum for a nice colt and want to protect their investment. He’s fit and running back in two weeks will not be an issue.

Watch the replay of the Kentucky Derby, at least one more time, but for the first time focus on Mr. Z who breaks from post 17 (stumbles with his first step) then witness what happens for an entire 1/16th of a mile in the race. Again, focus on Mr. Z (white hood/blinkers) from the first time the field reaches the 1/16th pole until he passes the Finish Line, the first time. Finishing 13th JUST 15½ lengths behind the winner is amazing.

#7 – Divining Rod (12-1): The new shooter. Only five lifetime races under his belt but is maturing with every start. That became evident his most recent race, a three length victory in the Lexington Stakes. He had enough Derby points to qualify as an also-eligible for the Derby, but that wasn’t the plan. Five weeks between races (Lexington to Preakness) fit perfectly into the schedule. His 4 furlong work at Fair Hill was slow (:51 3/5), but I witnessed it. It didn’t look slow and he did it so effortlessly. The connections were able to convince one of the top riders in the nation, Javier Castellano, to take the reins, which is an added plus and his last race speed figure only needs to improve a few points to come up to the level of the Derby top 3.

Based on my analysis of the Preakness, I’ll put just $64 into the race and play…

$10 WIN and PLACE on #2 (Dortmund) cost: $20

$2 EXACTA BOX on #1 (American Pharoah), #2 (Dortmund), #3 (Mr. Z), #7 (Divining Rod) cost: $24

$1 TRIFECTA KEY #2 (Dortmund) over #1, #3, #4, #7, #8 cost: $20