Kentucky Derby 2016: The Whys and Why Nots

Christmas has finally arrived for thoroughbred horseplayers everywhere. Churchill Downs is to horse racing as Augusta National is to golf, as Daytona Speedway is to NASCAR, and as the Rose Bowl is to College Football. Rain or shine, nothing will dampen our enthusiasm come 6:33pm EDT on Saturday as we watch the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby.

The forecast for the Louisville area is for Mostly Sunny skies on Friday through Post Time on Saturday, high near 75 degrees with no chance of precipitation. That’s great news for those who perform less than their best when the track is anything but fast.

On Wednesday, Post Positions were drawn as a full field of twenty (20) three-year-olds have been entered plus two Also-Eligibles, #21 – Laoban and #22 – Cherry Wine. For either to draw into the field, one or two horses would have to scratch prior to 9:00am on Friday. Based on my analysis, here’s how the field (excluding the Also-Eligibles) stacks up as far as their running style...

3 – Early Speed

5 – Tactical Speed (Stalker)

5 – Mid-Pack

7 – Closers

There are many schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby. The sheer size of the field itself can be overwhelming. Every runner has his positives and negatives. The key is to somehow pull it all together then imagine how the race will be run.

With that being said, and my past performances marked up as if a pre-school class were turned loose on them, here’s HOW I SEE IT (the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands) playing out, listed in my predicted order of finish. Odds shown are the current betting odds after Friday’s advanced wagering.

Keep in mind I'm picking horses nearly 48 hours BEFORE they walk out on the track. If at all possible, you should not make your wager until you’ve seen the horses in the Post Parade (12 minutes before the start). When horses reach the track, their physical appearance and body language can tip you off on which one(s) to include in your Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta or simply WIN, PLACE and/or SHOW bet. Good Luck!

1st - #17 – Mor Spirit

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Bob Baffert / Gary Stevens (21 3-3-1)

Running Style: Mid-Pack

Why he COULD win the Derby: Never worse than second in seven career outings. Though he could only manage to be runner-up in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, the positives are that he didn’t seem comfortable on the sloppy track and he was not hard ridden in the final furlong, passing a rival to get second on his own will. Jock is a 53 year old Hall of Famer who relishes one more chance to win a Derby after coming out of a 7-year retirement in 2013, saying this about his mount after a recent workout, "I can't get the horse tired and that's a good thing when you're going a mile and a quarter. I don't think that distance is going to be a problem but he's come along at the right time. This has been the focus since last year in December; we've been pointing for the Derby." His Hall of Fame trainer has had horses win this race four times including last years’ Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He has the look of a lazy horse that is content to let rivals pass him. His morning work habits show this as well, which is a major concern that the 53 year old rider will need to “ask” this colt to run the entire 1¼ mile trip, which is taxing for a fit rider half Gary Stevens’ age. With his plodder running style, he seems cut out for even longer distances, say the 1½ mile Belmont stakes. Only two PA-breds, Smarty Jones (2004) and Lil E. Tee (1992) have managed to get to the Derby Winners’ Circle, but if you are into patterns then this should be the year for another PA-bred winner as the first two occurred 12 years apart and it’s been 12 years since Smarty Jones won. No Derby starter breaking from Post 17 has ever won this race.

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

2nd - #3 – Creator

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Steven Asmussen / Ricardo Santana, Jr. (1st Derby)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: Won the Arkansas Derby with a visually impressive move, powering his way past rivals with authority, earning a career high 100 Brisnet speed figure. The furthest he’s finished behind a winner is 3 lengths, while always making up ground late after not having the cleanest of trips in his past five races. Bloodlines indicate no distance limitations and since arriving at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, he’s looked like a million bucks while galloping in the morning.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: A son of leading sire Tapit (9th in 2004 KY Derby) who commands a $300,000 stud fee but has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. Needs racing luck in that he’ll likely be dead last the first time the field crosses the wire, meaning his jock who has no Derby experience will have to pass 19 horses on this way to victory… a tall task. He will carry 8 lbs. more than the 118 lbs. he did in the AR Derby, while 17 others in this race carried at least 122 lbs. in their prior race.

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

3rd - #18 – Majesto

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Gustavo Delgado / Emisael Jaramillo (1st Derby)

Running Style: Mid-Pack

Why he COULD win the Derby: Quickly improving runner whose trainer has only been in North America three years but was the top trainer in Venezuela, saddling four Triple Crown winners. Being the runner-up in the FL Derby to Nyquist the undefeated KY Derby Morning Line favorite was no fluke. In fact, he galloped out way beyond Nyquist which should indicate he possesses the stamina required to win the Derby. In his debut he finished just 1½ lengths behind another highly regarded Derby runner Destin.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime). Jock has no Derby experience and has just over 140 career victories in North America, but was highly-regarded rider in South America for a number of years. Still have to wonder if he has the ability to prepare for the daunting task of negotiating a clean trip among 19 other runners for 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs on the 1st Saturday in May.

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

4th - #13 – Nyquist

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Doug O’Neill / Mario Gutierrez (1 1-0-0)

Running Style: Early Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: There are plenty of reasons… he’s the only undefeated (7 for 7) starter in this field… won Eclipse Award for Outstanding two-year-old… won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile from off the pace… in his most recent start travelled from CA to FL to take on previously undefeated Mohaymen in the Florida Derby, easily winning by 3¼ lengths. Trainer and jockey teamed up to win KY Derby in 2012 (I’ll Have Another). Since Churchill Downs, Inc. instituted the Road to the Kentucky Derby point system in 2013, the post-time Derby favorite has won the race. He will likely be the post-time favorite.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Carries the BC Juvenile winner jinx… since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, only one Juvenile race winner has also won the KY Derby (Street Sense in 2005). Being undefeated is no fluke, but twenty-six (26) undefeated horses have started in the KY Derby… just seven (7) have won it. His Dosage Index is 7.00, the highest in this field. A horse with a Dosage of 4.00 or higher used to indicate that runner lacks the stamina to give a top effort when asking to run 1¼ miles. Even though many 21st century handicappers claim Dosage is irrelevant, the fact remains in 141 runnings, just one three-year-old having a Dosage Index of higher than 5.40 has ever won the Derby (1991; Strike the Gold). Considering that Nyquist’s two best Brisnet speed figures were recorded in sprint races gives credence to that lofty Dosage Index meaning he will likely be staggering down the long Churchill Downs stretch.

Morning Line Odds: 3-1

5th - #11 – Exaggerator

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Keith Desormeaux / Kent Desormeaux (19: 3-1-4)

Running Style: Mid-Pack

Why he COULD win the Derby: Let’s start with having 3-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux in the irons. Won Santa Anita Derby in eye-popping fashion with a furious rally from last at the quarter pole to win by 6¼ lengths over a sloppy track. Connections and backers will be doing a rain dance as his two best Brisnet speed figures have come on an off track. He doesn’t have one running style… he’s won on the lead, from mid-pack and from way back in the pack.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s unsuccessfully faced Derby Morning Line favorite Nyquist twice. It may be a stretch to think he can turn the tables in their third go-round. As mentioned above, he’s not quite a superstar on a fast track, so you may want to hold off on making your wager until closer to post time when the track condition will be more apparent.

Morning Line Odds: 8-1

6th - #4 – Mo Tom

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Tom Amoss / Corey Lanerie (1: 0-0-0)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: Took the Louisiana route to Louisville by racing in all three KY Derby preps at Fairgrounds, winning the 1st Leg (LeComte stakes) followed by two troubled trips in the Risen Star and LA Derby, finishing 4th and 3rd, respectively when he could have won or at least run second in both if not for having to be taken up sharply in mid-stretch while under a full head of steam. The fact he was able to collect himself and run on demonstrated his will to win.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He won his career debut at Churchill Downs. The last Derby winner to have done that was Brokers Tip in 1933. Kentucky Derby victories are far and few between for the LA Derby participants, but leave them off of your Kentucky Derby exotics tickets at your peril. The KY Derby runner-up in 2014, 2013 and 2011 used the LA Derby as their final prep for the Run for the Roses.

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

7th -#6 – My Man Sam

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz, Jr. (1: 0-0-0)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: Lightly raced colt was a fast closing second in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes behind Brody’s Cause at Keeneland. Regular rider opted on that day to ride Shagaf in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, who finished as disappointing 5th as the favorite. In the Derby he’s back in the irons which should be interpreted as a positive sign.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime) but seems to be the “Wise Guy” horse of Derby Week. Every year a buzz is created about one horse, usually a Sleeper that all of the Talking Heads (aka experts) gush over. To my recollection, none have ever lived up to the hype. Of all the Derby starters, he is the one where stamina is a huge question mark. An offspring of Tapit (9th in 2004 KY Derby) whose progeny seem to “tap out” in races beyond 1 1/8 miles, has never produced a KY Derby winner.

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

8th - #10 – Whitmore

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Ron Moquett / Victor Espinoza (7 3-0-1)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: Since adding blinkers, his four races in 2016 have proven to his best as far as results and speed figures. Connections needed a jockey and they hit a home run in securing Victor Espinoza who has won the past two Kentucky Derby’s aboard American Pharoah (2015) and California Chrome (2014), and seeks his sixth win in the past seven Triple Crown races. The Derby horse who usually attracts the most attention at the betting windows is whoever Calvin Borel rides, but Borel retired last month so look for Espinoza’s mount to be the fan favorite and go off at lower odds than his Morning Line.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Both victories came in sprints (at 6 furlongs). This gelding spent two days in Lexington after the Arkansas Derby for oxygen therapy before heading to Churchill Downs. He would have to break an 82 year drought of having his first win come over the same track as the KY Derby. Troubling that in his last two races lacked a killer-instinct to get past horses. Funny Cide (2003) was last gelding to wear the blanket of roses. Prior to that it was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. Morning Line Odds: 20-1

9th -#14 – Mohaymen

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Kiaran McLaughlin / Junior Alvarado (1st Derby)

Running Style: Tactical Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: Five wins in six starts, with four wins against G2 competition. Lone loss came in most recent start in the much hyped match-up against the west coast undefeated, two-year-old champion, Nyquist in the Florida Derby. Sent off as the Post Time, as he had been in his previous five races, Mohaymen finished a disappointing fourth after a 5-wide trip. His jock stated, “I was where I wanted to be the whole race and he didn’t fire this time. He’s a horse that all the time drags me and jumps in the bridle right away so when we turn to the backside he’s pulling me. This time he wasn’t pulling me.” So an optimist will chalk up the FL Derby to Mohaymen having an off day. He has taken to the Churchill Downs dirt oval like a duck to water, as evident in his two excellent workouts… the first being the fastest of twenty-seven that day and most recently fifth fastest of sixty-seven. In addition, as looked “on the muscle” which often results in a top effort.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: May have been exposed in FL Derby. Those who he’s beaten in his five wins haven’t not won races in their subsequent outings. The Remsen Stakes, run in late November at Aqueduct has not yielded a winner who has also won the KY Derby since 1994 (Thunder Gulch). He’s gray. Not too many gray three-year-olds have won the Derby (most recent was Giacomo in 2005) and he’s one of three sired by Tapit who has had many offspring run in the KY Derby but none have ever worn the blanket of roses.

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

10th - #5 – Gun Runner

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Steven Asmussen / Florent Geroux (1st Derby)

Running Style: Tactical Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: Four wins from five career races while never being sent off as the post time favorite makes him the Rodney Dangerfield of this years’ Derby field. The only blemish on his record is a fourth place finish last November at Churchill Downs in the G2 KY Jockey Club Stakes which was contested over a sloppy track. In his two most recent victories, the G2 Louisiana Derby and G2 Risen Star both at Fairgrounds, he was given a perfect trip from his pilot, saving ground along the rail tracking close to the early leaders. In the Louisiana Derby earned a 104 Brisnet Speed Figure (BSF), matched only by Danzing Candy for being tops in this field. Has steadily improved, speed figure-wise in each of his races. This son of Candy Ride has matured physically and mentally as a three-year-old, which is key to success on the first Saturday of May.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Critics question the quality of competition he beat in his two races this year along a track that was kind to horse on or near the front. Only three horses have won the KY Derby after competing in the LA Derby. Two of them, Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924 captured both Derbies. Funny Cide (2003) parlayed a third place LA Derby finish into a blanket of roses in the Kentucky Derby. Though jockey Florent Geroux has blossomed into a top-notch nationally known rider, with three Breeders’ Cup wins to his credit, this will be his first KY Derby and there’s nothing that can prepare a jockey to deal with a 20 horse field with everything on the line. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs (CD) in his career debut. The last Derby winner to have notched his first career win at CD was Brokers Tip in 1933, not in a maiden race but in the KY Derby.

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

11th - #2 – Suddenbreakingnews

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Donnie Von Hemel / Luis Quinonez (1st Derby)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: Impressive final workout at Churchill Downs, both visually and time wise. Only race where he finished worse than second was when steadied in mid-rally in the G2 Rebel stakes two races back, yet finished less than 5 lengths behind the winner.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Started racing career at Remington Park… on the turf! Trainer only previous KY Derby starter, Clever Trevor finished 13th in 1989. Over the past 86 years, just two geldings have won the Run for the Roses… Funny Cide (2003) and Clyde Van Duesen (1929). Has yet to record a triple-digit Brisnet speed rating, pretty much a must for having the ability to win the Derby. Tough assignment for a first time Derby jock to negotiate a clean trip from far back in the pack early.

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

12th -#16 – Shagaf

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Chad Brown / Joel Rosario (6: 1-0-0)

Running Style: Tactical Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: Is the most lightly raced colt, along stablemate My Man Sam and Outwork, in the field with just four lifetime starts, a winner in his first three. His bloodlines suggest stamina will not be an issue in running 1¼ miles while his trainer who will also saddle #6 – My Man Sam, is among the top trainers in North America whose only previous Derby starter, Normandy Invasion, finished 4th in 2013.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Finished a disappointing 5th in the G1 Wood Memorial as the 9-5 Post Time favorite. The last KY Derby winner to have finished worse than 4th in his final Derby prep race was Iron Liege (1957) who ran 5th in the Derby Trial. Irad Ortiz, Jr. who has been the only jockey ever to ride him decided to ride Brown’s other Derby starter (My Man Sam). Two races back he won the G3 Gotham. Secretariat is the only Gotham winner to wear the roses… I knew Secretariat… and he's no Secretariat.

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

13th - #7 – Oscar Nominated

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Michael Maker / Julien Leparoux (7 0-0-0)

Running Style: Tactical Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: In winning the G3 Spiral Stakes, ran the fastest final 1/8th (12 2/5) of the 17 runners in here whose previous race was run at 1 1/8 miles. Not nominated to the Triple Crown series, multiple Eclipse award winning breeder and owners, Ken & Sarah Ramsey found an investor to put up the $200,000 late nomination fee in exchange would split this colts next three races earnings. The Ramsey’s are good for horse racing and the racing gods owe them a KY Derby winner. Best known for turf runners sired by Kitten’s Joy, who happens to be this one’s daddy whose offspring have no issue going 1¼ miles or longer. Ironically, was claimed by Ramsey last Oct. for $75,000. His record since then is 2 wins and 2 runner-up efforts in 4 races. Another Spiral Stakes winner who had the identical 4 race record was Animal Kingdom, who won the 2011 KY Derby in his first start on natural dirt.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Has never raced on natural dirt while being bred to run on the turf which makes matters worse. He makes 2009 Derby 50-1 longshot winner Mine That Bird look like a logical play in hindsight. He owns the lowest high number Brisnet Speed Figure (91) among Derby starters. Jock has never sniffed contention in his past seven Derby rides, one was on the favorite. Owner Ken Ramsey loves the limelight and would give his right arm to win the Derby, but he’s best known for having terrific turf runners a la prize stud Kitten’s Joy, not Derby contenders. A shrewd handicapper, even Ramsey feels rain might help his colts chances, but not much saying, “I think if the track comes up sloppy that would put him in the top five or at least put him in the money.” He’s had four Derby starters; best finish was 8th.

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

14th -#8 – Lani

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Mikio Matsunaga / Y. Take (1 0-0-0)

Running Style: Mid-Pack

Why he COULD win the Derby: The KY Derby has been the goal all along as his Japanese connections nominated him for the Triple Crown back when nominations were first taken in January. He won the UAE Derby in Dubai to earn his way into the starting gate and is the only Derby starter to have run in a Derby distance (1¼ mile) race… it was in his career debut though on the turf. His trainer is considered the Ben Jones and jockey the George Wolfe of Japanese racing. He was first of all Derby potential starters to arrive at Churchill Downs (Apr. 3rd), so he’s had plenty of time to get acclimated to North America and the Churchill Downs track. Getting the Derby distance will not be a problem as his Dam won a stakes going 10f on turf and has a half-brother (same dam, different sire) who won stakes races at 10f on turf and dirt, and won at longer.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Another son of leading sire Tapit who has turned out 15 crops of runners but has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. No winner of the UAE Derby in Dubai has ever won the KY Derby. To be fair, the Meydan track in Dubai was a synthetic surface in previous years but was changed over to natural dirt this year. On the track in the morning he appeared to lack focus, intimidated by other horses… simply looking out of place.

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

15th - #19 – Brody’s Cause

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Dale Romans / Luis Saez (3 0-0-0)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: He was dazzling in winning his G1 Blue Grass Stakes after a very disappointing seventh-place finish in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, his debut race as a three-year-old which had his trainer scratching his head, “… we have no idea what happened… just draw a line through it.”, said a puzzled Dale Romans. His final workout impressed the professional clockers and he could be more forwardly placed than the other Closers if the pace is slower than expected.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: It’s been 25 years since the Blue Grass stakes winner won the Derby. Appears to be not fast enough a he’s yet to record a triple-digit Brisnet Speed figure, a staple for winning the KY Derby. From six (6) career races his best Brisnet Speed Figure is an unimpressive 95 while his best three figs have all come at Keeneland… the KY Derby is run at Churchill Downs. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs (CD) in his second career. It’s been 82 years since the Derby winner also won his first career race at CD.

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

16th -#15 – Outwork

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez (17 1-1-0)

Running Style: Early Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: He’s 3 for 4 with his only blemish a one-length, runner-up effort in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He looked brilliant in winning his first two races sprinting and progressed to success at two turns, most recently a gutsy win in the G1 Wood Memorial. Pletcher has two starters; his go-to rider picked this one.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Has yet to crack a triple-digit Brisnet Speed figure, typically a prerequisite for having a chance to win the Derby. Pletcher said of this son of Uncle Mo after winning the G1 Wood Memorial, “He still has some learning to do. He definitely has a tendency to idle. In his mind, the race was won when he got to the top of the stretch and made the lead. Thankfully, it didn't cost him the win. His ears go straight forward and he's looking around. Hopefully that's something he'll continue to mature through and get better and learn how to really polish off his races." Entering a race with twenty starters is not the place you want a colt who is still learning. No Wood starter has finished in-the-money (Win, Place or Show) in the Derby since 2003, when Funny Cide won. Pletcher has only one Derby winner from 46 runners, and that one (Super Saver in 2010) came on an off track, then never even hit the board in his next 3 races before being retired to stud.

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

17th - #9 – Destin

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / Javier Castellano (10 0-0-0)

Running Style: Tactical Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: Winner of his past two races, first the G3 Sam F. Davis then the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, the latter in track record time. The runner-up (Outwork) came back to win the G1 Wood Memorial and seventh place finisher (Brody’s Cause) won the G1 Blue Grass Stakes, in their next starts. Should get a perfect trip stalking the few pace setters. He’s built to get the Derby distance.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Has not raced since winning the G2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th. That’s exactly 56 days! No three-year-old has won the Derby coming off an eight week layoff. As a comparison, the longest layoff for a Kentucky Derby winner was Animal Kingdom (2011) who won the Spiral Stakes six weeks prior to the Derby as did Needles who won the Florida Derby six weeks prior in 1956. The longest distance he has run is 1 1/16 miles, a huge disadvantage whereas all of his rivals have run at least 1 1/8 miles in their final prep. Trainer Todd Pletcher is just 1 for 45 in with his starters in the Derby. Finally, though ridden by one of the nation’s top riders, Castellano hasn’t come close to winning a Derby in his 10 attempts (his best finish was 7th).

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

18th - #1 – Trojan Nation

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Patrick Gallagher / Aaron Gryder (? 0-0-0)

Running Style: Closer

Why he COULD win the Derby: Though winless in six career starts, in his most recent start lost the G1 Wood Memorial by just a flared nostril. Connections obviously believed in his ability when shipping across the country from Santa Anita to run in the Wood, his first race outside of CA. Needs a perfect trip, much like the rail trip he got in the Wood, as does most of the 20 entered to pull off a bigger upset than Mine That Bird (2009 winner at 50-1).

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Thirty years ago Ferdinand won the Derby from Post Position #1 in a field of 16, not 20 starters. No Wood starter has finished better than fourth in the Derby since Funny Cide won in 2003… that would be 25 who failed to even be part of the Derby trifecta. Even more damning, this guy has yet to enter the Winner’s Circle from six career starts. Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919) and Brokers Tip (1933) are the only maidens (i.e. a horse that has yet to win a race) to win the Kentucky Derby. Since Brokers Tip in 1933, just nine maidens have run in the Derby, with On the Mark (1950) having the best finish (8th).

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

19th - #12 – Tom’s Ready

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Dallas Stewart / Brian Hernandez, Jr. (1st Derby)

Running Style: Mid-Pack

Why he COULD win the Derby: Comes off the best race of his life, a runner-up effort in the G2 Louisiana Derby. His trainer has built a reputation of getting longshots to hit the board in the KY Derby… Commanding Curve (37-1) in 2014 and Golden Soul (34-1) in 2013, both ran second. He used the same road with Tom’s Ready as he did with those two, with eerily similar results in the G2 Risen Star and LA Derby.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime). Jock has no Derby experience. He’ll try to become just the third PA-bred to win the Derby. Has yet to crack a triple-digit Brisnet Speed figure, typically a prerequisite for having a chance to win the Derby. Nothing in this jocks career can compare to the daunting task of negotiating a clean trip for 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs on the 1st Saturday in May. He broke his maiden at CD.

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

20th - #20 – Danzing Candy

Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Clifford Sise, Jr. / Mike Smith (22 1-4-1)

Running Style: Early Speed

Why he COULD win the Derby: Should be free from any trouble going into the first turn as he will likely be on the lead, with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith in the irons who in recent years has had the knack of setting the pace in the Derby on his mounts. Give him a pass for that 4th place finish in the Santa Anita Derby as it was his only race on a sloppy track and he went too fast too early. This year’s field is avoid of plenty of runners with early speed, if he can get a clear lead without much pressure and the Churchill Downs surface is favoring front runners, then this guy has a good chance to make every pole a winning one. His speed figures are like watching a see-saw (up then down, up then down)… the Derby should be an “up”.

Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: In Derby history only 22 winners have gone gate-to-wire. That’s 22 for 141! The last one to do it was War Emblem in 2002. Breaking from Post 20 will take too much energy early on to think he’ll prevail. Jock has just one Derby win in nearly two dozen starts and that one came on 50-1 longshot, Giacomo in 2005. If he doesn’t break away from the gate cleanly, he’s toast has all three victories were when he got the lead at the first call and never looked back. It is rare that the Derby is won by in gate to wire fashion but that’s his only shot at winning. Did all of his training on the west coast and did not ship to Louisville until four days before the race. Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Based on my analysis of the Derby, I’ll put just $79 into the race and play…

$10 WIN, PLACE, SHOW on #17 (Mor Spirit) cost: $30

$2 EXACTA BOX on #3 (Creator), #13 (Nyquist), #17 (Mor Spirit), #18 (Majesto) cost: $24

$1 TRIFECTA BOX on #3 (Creator), #17 (Mor Spirit), #18 (Majesto) cost: $6

$1 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL #4, #11, #13, #17, #18 with #3 (Creator in the 2nd spot) with #4, #6, #11, #13, #17, #18 cost: $25