2015 Kentucky Derby: 8th Annual GQ Derby Double Dozen
There are two certainties when we flip our calendars from January to February. The first is the number of days until the Kentucky Derby has been reduced to two-digits and the second is the GQ Derby Double Dozen, an annual (early February) tradition I started in 2008 at my previous blog website (WNST.net). The GQ Derby Double Dozen is my Top 24 colts and/or geldings (sorry ladies, no fillies this year) that I humbly believe have the best shot of getting to Louisville on the first Saturday in May, and not only break from the starting gate at approximately 6:20pm (EDT), but have the pedigree to WIN the 2015 Kentucky Derby at the classic distance (1¼ miles).
Here’s how the previous seven GQ Derby Double Dozen lists have fared in picking the Kentucky Derby winner…
2008: Big Brown was ranked #2.
2009: Mine That Bird was not on the list (nor was on anyone’s list); Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile was ranked #1.
2010: Super Saver was ranked #10.
2011: Animal Kingdom was not on the list; my #1 was Santiva who finished 6th at 34-1 just 5½ lengths behind the winner.
2012: I’ll Have Another was ranked #10.
2013: Orb was not on the list; my #1 (Tiz The Truth never made it to CD and my #2 (Revolutionary) ran 3rd.
2014: California Chrome was ranked #19; my #1 (Commissioner) did not start in the Derby, but nearly wired the Belmont Stakes field at 28-1, losing by a head to Tonalist who happened to be #8 in the GQ Derby Double Dozen.
When you review this list, the majority of you will surely say, “You are out of your freakin’ mind for not having ______ on this list”.
For example, the 2014 GQ Derby Double Dozen caused quite a stir from HRN readers because most of the leading Derby 140 contenders such as Shared Belief, Cairo Prince (remember him?), Havana and Honor Code were nowhere to be found. Not on the list and not in the Starting Gate on the first Saturday in May. If the omission of those four blew your mind last year, then you may not want to read on, as the omissions this year may make your eyes bleed!
Again, this “Double Dozen” is not about listing the leading contenders who are likely just to get to the Derby 141 starting gate. It’s about which twenty-four 3-year-olds I believe have the pedigree to WIN when asked to run 10 furlongs and carry 126 lbs. for the first time in their racing career. Period!
Below is the 2015 list which shows my ranking, horse name, trainer, current jockey and facts/comments which include the Dosage Index (if you don't know what this is... Google it). Call me a dinosaur, but I still take stock in Dosage, even though the majority of contenders pass that test (Dosage Index of 4.00 or under).
KY-bred bay son of Lemon Drop Kid is a perfect 2 for 2, as he earned a 102 Brisnet figure in his second career effort going one mile over a fast Gulfstream dirt oval on Jan. 4th. The final time was .79 seconds faster than Bluegrass Singer ran in winning the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man, formerly the Gulfstream Park Derby. The 1¼ mile Derby distance will be no problem as his daddy (Lemon Drop Kid) won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. His next start will be on Feb. 21st in the G1 Fountain of Youth. DI=1.29
KY-bred bay son of freshman sire Blame won his career debut at Aqu on Dec. 12th then shocked the horse racing world winning the G3 Withers. Shocking not that he won, but in the manner he did it (see video below). Likely to take the NY route to Louisville via Gotham and Wood Memorial, if he can mature over the next 10 weeks, he’ll be one to beat on the first Saturday of May. Negative: No Mr. Prospector influence; DI=2.00
KY-bred dark brown son of Medaglia d’Oro is training at Palm Meadows awaiting his 3 year old debut. At 2, he didn’t race on dirt until his 4th start in the G2 KY Jockey Club on Nov. 29th where he was one stride from overtaking gate to wire winner, El Kabeir. He’s entered to run in the G2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds on Feb. 21st. If all goes well he’ll come back in the G2 LA Derby on Mar. 28th. DI=3.00
KY-bred bay son of 2010 KY Derby winner Super Saver cost a pretty penny ($750k) at auction as a 2 year old. He paid immediate dividends winning his debut and the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga then sustained a hairline fracture to his left foreleg, requiring at least 60 days of rest. On Jan. 11th he began his road back onto the Derby Trail with workouts every 7 days. Team Pletcher is still uncertain where his 3 year old debut will take place. DI=3.00
KY-bred bay son of War Front had his perfect 3 for 3 record ruined by a troubled seventh in the G1 BC Juvenile to conclude his 2 year old season. Not many Derby contenders make their 3 year old debut in a turf sprint, but this one did, winning in workout fashion. Next up is the Swale (GP; Feb. 28). If he continues to impress, the G1 FL Derby (GP; Mar. 28) should be on his dance card with hopes of earning a trip to Louisville. DI = 1.71
KY-bred bay son of Curlin was no factor when 5th in the G2 Holy Bull, 10 lengths behind Upstart on a GP dirt oval that is unkind to deep Closers, as was the Big A in Nov. when he was 3rd. Romans is smart enough to recognize that… so he’s entered in the Risen Star (Feb. 21) which is run on the off-the-pace friendly FG oval. When looking at his PP’s one is underwhelmed but he has improved, Brisnet Speed Figure-wise in each of his five (5) career efforts. Out of an Awesome Again mare, he’s begging for 10 furlongs. DI=2.73
KY-bred chestnut son of Pulpit rained on the 3 year old debut parade for Texas Red by beating the BC Juvenile champ by a neck in the G2 San Vicente at Santa Anita on Feb. 1st. The naysayers will point to Lord Nelson’s only two losses (and OTB finishes) as being 2-turns while all 3 victories were sprints. True, but he’s bred to go long and had an excuse when 5th by 7 to El Kabeir in the G2 KY Jockey Club. It’s also interesting how Bejarano got the mount in the San Vicente while Martin Garcia, who had ridden him in all four previous races, did not have a mount in the race but is Dortmund’s regular rider. Hmmm. Is Baffert already aligning his jockeys for the Derby Trail? DI=3.18
KY-bred dark bay son of Street Sense made it a natural hat-trick (3 for 3) when he won the G3 Delta Jackpot by a nose over Mr. Z. Cassidy gave him 60 days off from training after that win as he is being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes on Mar. 7th at Santa Anita. Two turns will be his strong suit. If he can relax behind early speed, his immediate future looks bright. DI=2.11
KY-bred gray son of Tapit has never been worse than second in 5 lifetime outings, though only a winner of one, answers every bell with his best. If he continues to blossom through early spring, he could become the tenth gray to win the KY Derby. Giacomo (2005) was the most recent gray to win it. Frosted is scheduled to start in the Fountain of Youth (GP, Feb. 21) DI=2.75
KY-bred bay son of Malibu Moon has just 3 starts under his belt… all sprints. Hardly the type of resume’ KY Derby champions are made of, but in Todd I trust. He is bred to go long, not sprint, so when he surfaced in a AOCN1X sprint at GP on Feb. 8th off a six month layoff, it was a head scratcher. No need to panic… there’s two more races in him before Derby Day (May 2nd), the second of two could easily be the Blue Grass (Kee; Apr. 4th) or AR Derby (OP; Apr. 11th). Yeah…yeah, that’s the ticket! DI=3.36
KY-bred dark bay son of Tapit took four starts to break his maiden, but it appears that day (Dec. 27 @ SA) “the light” finally came on (or was it that the blinkers came off?) as he fought back in the stretch to prevail. He then destroyed a N1X field… the runner-up (St. Joe Bay) is entered in the Risen Star (FG; Feb. 21). So very soon we will know just how good that N1X race was. DI=3.33
NY-bred dark bay son of Flatter skyrocketed into the Top 5 of every talking heads Derby List after his impressive 5½ length victory in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 24th. Earning a 105 Brisnet figure will catch any Derby prognosticators attention. Is the thoroughbred world ready to embrace a NY-bred ridgling as the Derby favorite? No ridgling has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Mine That Bird (2009), Funny Cide (2005) and Clyde Van Duesen (1929) were gelded before winning the Derby. Time will tell as his next test appears to be the Fountain of Youth. DI=3.00
KY-bred bay son of War Front had a busy 2 year old season in Europe exclusively sprinting on the turf for Aidan O’Brien until he was thrown to the wolves (aka BC Juvenile) yet did not embarrass himself, salvaging a fourth place finish. That and the fact he cost a cool million at 2013 Keeneland September Sales must have enticed ownership to keep their colt in the states and train for the KY Derby. He was the worst kept secret in his 3 year old debut, a minor stakes sprint at Turfway Park, where he won easily at odds of 1-9! If he continues to train at Turfway Park, he might be pointing to the Spiral Stakes on Mar. 21st for Derby points. Dosage: 2.78
KY-bred chestnut son of Smart Strike started his career in a forgettable way… being pulled up and walking off track, officially losing by 75 lengths to Dortmund. Five weeks later made a triumphant return to the track at Los Alamitos earning an impressive 93 Brisnet#. In his 3 year old debut gave Lord Nelson and Texas Red a fight in G2 San Vincente losing by 1 length. Fact: He’s only sprinted in 3 starts yet he’s bred to go two-turns. His best races are ahead of him. DI=3.00
KY-bred chestnut son of Street Boss has accomplished something that no other 3 year old in North America on the Derby Trail has… and that’s win a race going 9 furlongs (G3 El Camino Real Derby). All of the talking heads are concerned whether he can take natural dirt in his face. Hello?! He already has when sprinting at SA on Breeders’ Cup Friday, chasing Ocho Ocho Ocho who followed up that performance by winning the G3 Delta Jackpot. As another point of reference, “The Boss” was runner-up to another highly regarded 3 year old, Bolo two races back. There’s no doubt he was born to run. DI=3.00
KY-bred chestnut son of leading freshman sire Lookin At Lucky broke his maiden in his 4th career outing after taking a months off to regroup, then was privately sold and handed over to Pletcher to perform his Derby contender magic. On Feb. 4th he successfully took step one by disposing of a quartet travelling 9 furlongs in a N1X. DI = 3.21
KY-bred dark bay son of 2007 KY Derby runner-up Hard Spun is taking the Dubai route to Louisville as many Godolphin owned 3 year olds do. Making his natural dirt/3 yr. old debut at Meydan (UAE) after 5 starts in Great Britain at age 2, he was a distant 3rd to the highly regarded Mubtaahij on Jan. 15, but turned the tables on that one in the one mile G3 UAE 2000 Guineas on Feb. 12th (see video below). The addition of a visor (aka blinkers) may have been the difference maker? The fact that jockey Hanagan believes his best races are ahead of him puts him on this list. The rubber match between Maftool and Mubtaahij will take place in the G2 UAE Derby (Meydan, Mar. 28). The winner will likely ship to the states in an attempt to become the first KY Derby winner to have prepped in Dubai. Both colts are TC nominated and won’t be surprised to see either one in the CD Starting Gate on the first Saturday of May around 6:20pm. DI=2.25
Irish-bred bay son of Dubawi is another one taking the Dubai route to Louisville. After starting his career with two OTB finishes sprinting on the grass at Newmarket (GB) he shipped to Dubai in December. On New Years’ Eve he made his natural dirt debut at Meydan (UAE) a winning one going one mile. Then easily won the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial on Jan. 15, but Maftool turned the tables on him in the one mile G3 UAE 2000 Guineas on Feb. 12th (see video above), suffering a head defeat while not changing leads. The rubber match between Mubtaahij and Maftool will take place in the G2 UAE Derby (Meydan, Mar. 28). The winner will likely ship to the states in an attempt to become the first KY Derby winner to have prepped in Dubai. Both colts are TC nominated so don’t be surprised to see either one or both in the CD Starting Gate on the first Saturday of May around 6:20pm EDT. DI=2.25
KY-bred dark bay son of Tapit took pressure on the lead in the G3 Sam Davis the entire way, getting beat just a neck but 5 ahead of third place finisher when 28-1 and 1st time on Lasix. Sentimental selection as same owners of Barbaro deserve some good karma to return to Louisville with legitimate chance to win. Next start appears to be Tampa Bay Derby (Tam; Mar. 7th). DI=2.73
KY-bred bay son of Afleet Alex carries the burden of trying to be only the second BC Juvenile winner to win the KY Derby. His neck loss to Lord Nelson in his 3 year old debut going 7 furlongs did not deflate Team Desormeaux as they are focused on the big prize instead. Loved him in the BC Juvenile as he was only one of two legitimate Closers… the race fell apart at the top of the stretch and he took advantage. Amazingly no one else seemed to see it that way. This is why “Red” is not ranked high on this list versus the fact he has a foot abscess which interrupts his training and he will now point for the Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby in April. DI=1.55
KY-bred bay son of 2010 KY Derby winner Super Saver was last seen finishing 6th in the Champagne Stakes in October. Shortly thereafter it was discovered that he had a bone flake in his knee which required minor surgery. He resumed training on Feb. 7th at Oaklawn Park. Though not yet nominated for the Triple Crown, if this colt progresses in the A.M., then ownership may nominate him prior to the March deadline. The maturity and will to win he showed last August in winning the Saratoga Special makes him a threat to get to Louisville. One would think that the Rebel (Mar. 14) and/or Arkansas Derby (Apr. 11) are possibilities. DI=2.64
KY-bred chestnut son of Curlin out of a Distorted Humor mare has the pedigree to get the 1¼ mile Derby distance. The question is whether he can build off of his 2 year old results. Displaying tactical speed in all four starts, his bad beat, runner-up in the G3 Iroquois @ CD was followed by getting SHOW money behind Carpe Deim and Mr. Z in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Kee. Asmussen gave him a solid 90 days off before training in earnest for his 3 year old debut, which will be in the G3 Southwest Stakes (OP, Feb. 21). DI=3.36
KY-bred chestnut son of Northern Afleet has an uphill battle to get to and win the Derby for multiple reasons… he’s a gelding and broke his maiden in debut at CD. The last Derby winner to have broken his maiden on the CD dirt oval was Brokers Tip in 1933. Owned by the same group (Looch Racing) who mismanaged Ria Antonia’s 3 year old season,r Amoss already called an audible scratching out of the Southwest and shipped back to FG for the Risen Star. No game plan. DI=2.73
KY-bred chestnut son of Candy Ride (ARG) did not have the cleanest of trips in his 7th place effort in the G3 Lecomte @ FG on Jan. 17. For that reason and the fact his two year old campaign was filled with promise as he progressed through the conditions, concluding with his best career effort in the G2 KY Jockey Club, a ¾ length defeat behind El Kabeir and Imperia, on a day/night where the CD dirt oval was being kind to early speed. On that night Eagle closed 4+ lengths on the winner in the stretch. His next race was to be the G2 Risen Star, but trainer Neil Howard supposedly was not happy with his trainee’s most recent work. Not something you want to hear when considering a Derby contender, but at this point “cautious optimism” is an appropriate phrase for a start in the G1 LA Derby. DI=2.00
Now for the notables not on the list and why…
Dortmund, Mr. Z and Rock Shandy have Storm Cat as the damsire (or granddamsire) who has had over 1900 starters but few winners over 9 furlongs. Bodemeister, runner-up in both the 2012 Derby and Preakness was the closest to producing a damsire "Triple Crown Race" win for Storm Cat.
Carpe Diem (BC Juvenile runner-up), El Kabeir (G3 Jerome and G2 KY Jockey Cup winner), Bluegrass Singer and Gorgeous Bird carry the black cloud of Unbridled's Song unsound breeding. Staying sound throughout the rigors of the Derby Trail will be challenging enough. If any of them get in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, getting to the wire first is a very longshot.
American Pharoah (4.33) and International Star (4.09) have Dosage Index above 4.00, the magic number which indicates a 3 year olds likelihood of successfully being the best horse travelling 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May. Since 1940 only five (5) Derby winners have had a Dosage Index above 4.00. All five occurred from 1991-2009, during an era where the vast majority of horses were bred for speed not stamina. The most recent winner (Mine That Bird) won on an off track which also adds an asterisk to the exception to the rule. To see the Dosage Index of all past Derby winners click here.
There’s more bad news for American Pharoah. No ridgling has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Mine That Bird (2009), Funny Cide (2005) and Clyde Van Duesen (1929) were gelded before winning the Derby. So you like those odds… 3 in 140 runnings… especially on a runner likely to go off at short odds?
Daredevil was one of the best two-year-olds of 2014 (minus his BC Juvenile performance), but how many times have we seen these types unable to replicate that form at age 3? (Honor Code, Shanghai Bobby, Hansen, Uncle Mo, etc.). Add the fact his sire (More Than Ready) is a top turf sire and his progeny often top out at distances of 8½ furlongs. For this reason Shark Tank fans, “I’m out”.
Fans of Firing Line and Far Right and Ocean Knight I haven’t forgotten about your Derby horse. Though this trio has impressed us in their most recent efforts, their pedigree doesn’t suggest they want any part of running 10 furlongs.
FACT: In the past 7 years, 3 year olds who I specifically mentioned/explained why they did not make the GQ Derby Double Dozen list has never won the Kentucky Derby.
There you have it. Now give me your best shot. Who would you put on and/or remove from the 8th annual GQ Derby Double Dozen?