Would Letruska contend in the Breeders' Cup Classic?

Letruska’s victory as the underdog in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn Park was only five months ago, but the now historical edition of the race feels like a long time ago. In a matchup featuring Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver, the presence of Letruska felt like an afterthought to most of the public. 

Fast forward to September and Letruska reigns as the division leader with three additional wins since Monomoy Girl passed the torch to Letruska. At this point, no one denies Letruska’s role as the heavy favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar next month. 

Right now, there are no indications trainer Fausto Gutierrez will change his mind and enter Letruska in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But if he did enter Letruska in the Classic, does she fit in as a realistic contender?

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is coming up tough this year, as it should. Although she might complete the trifecta or superfecta with her current form, Letruska would need to run the best race of her life to win. 

A few important factors work against Letruska’s hypothetical presence in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The first problem is the pace scenario.

Two major need-the-lead type runners in Knicks Go and Medina Spirit are pointing toward the Classic. Both speed horses are capable of burning up the track with fast fractions in the opening half. Beyond those two pacesetters, other quality speed horses aiming for the race include Hot Rod Charlie and Art Collector. 

Letruska survived a fast pace in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1), but taking on proven Grade 1 males with speed could prove more stressful than dealing with the main speed in the Personal Ensign.   

Besides the pace scenario, the competition is unlike any Letruska has ever seen. Running in restricted races against females is just not the same as competing in open company against males, even if they are both Grade 1s. At least two contenders show higher TimeformUS figures.

Knicks Go owns two Grade 1 races this year against older horses, the Pegasus World Cup and Whitney Stakes. In those two Grade 1 races, Knicks Go ran 133 and 130.

Hot Rod Charlie also can hit 130. When he won the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) two weekends ago, he ran a career-high 133.

Medina Spirit and Essential Quality probably are capable of breaking 130 on TimeformUS too, although the feat has not happened yet for either colt.

In Medina Spirit’s effortless Awesome Again Stakes (G1) victory a few days ago at Santa Anita, he posted a career-high 127. Essential Quality also earned a 127 when he won the Belmont Stakes in June. Ironically, both of their second-highest TimeformUS figures shown are 122, but these two talented 3-year-olds will enter the Breeders’ Cup Classic fully tuned for a peak effort and figure to equal or improve on their best.

Even though Letruska will enter the Breeders’ Cup fully tuned as well, as a 5-year-old mare, the feeling is that she likely has hit her peak form.

Letruska’s effort in the Personal Ensign came across as a grueling one as she faced multiple waves of challengers and needed her best.

Can this same effort produce a Classic victory?

She held on late with a 126 on TimeformUS. In the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) at Belmont in June, she also ran a 127, which is her best figure. 

On numbers, she is in line with Medina Spirit and Essential Quality. Again, though, those are developing 3-year-old males, while she is a 5-year-old mare who most likely has found her career best stride. Even if those two runners only repeated their best speed figures next month at Del Mar, then Letruska still needs to beat Knicks Go and Hot Rod Charlie. It is probable that at least one of those four stars will break 130 as their trainers aim to peak on Breeders' Cup week.

In terms of winning the Classic, the task for Letruska seems too difficult. Yes, Zenyatta won the synthetic Breeders' Cup Classic in 2009 and barely missed in 2010 against the great Blame. But Zenyatta was a special mare. She easily belongs on a list of greatest female horses. 

Although Letruska has not been at the top for long, she does not appear capable of hitting the levels that Zenyatta did in her historic career. 

With that said, Letruska does not seem likely to run up the track and embarrass herself against males. Rather, she would fit as "another horse" or possibly a fringe contender if the connections tried to enter the Classic and shoot for the stars. 

Sure, Letruska might run third or fourth and earn respect against males. Only two years ago, the mare Elate ran a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and there was nothing wrong with the effort or her presence in the race. Against males, she was another good horse. 

In the Distaff, though, Letruska is almost assured of winning. On paper, there is probably not a female horse that can defeat her in a dirt route.

While Letruska’s presence in the Classic would add intrigue to the Breeders’ Cup and generate the old females-versus-males debate leading up to the race, the more logical spot for Letruska is the Distaff.