Can either filly beat the boys again in 2018 Queen's Plate?

For the 159th time, Woodbine Racetrack will on Saturday host the historic Queen’s Plate for Canadian-bred 3-year-olds, and this edition will likely feature two fillies in Wonder Gadot and Dixie Moon.

Can one of them take down the male runners and win? The numbers are surprisingly in their favor.

Since 1860, 36 fillies have captured the race. Since 2010 alone, three fillies took home the prize, including Holy Helena, Lexie Lou and Inglorious, so the trend is not outdated. Fillies are a threat when it comes to the Queen’s Plate.

As for Wonder Gadot’s specific record and chances, she admittedly does not win often with a 3-for-11 record. But she often finishes in the money, only missing the Top 3 when sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Wonder Gadot also finished runner-up to Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks last month on dirt, before running a close second to Dixie Moon in the recent Woodbine Oaks. She hopped at the start and needed to close off a seemingly slow pace (on synthetic, it is hard to tell), and Dixie Moon just held her off at the end in an exciting race.  

Dixie Moon and Wonder Gadot earned 88 Beyer Speed Figures for their efforts. One could argue Wonder Gadot hung a bit toward the end.

 But Wonder Gadot does own a win over Woodbine synthetic, too, as she took the Mazarine Stakes (G3) by six lengths over three other fillies last fall. After the Breeders’ Cup, the connections even considered running her on the Derby trail against males in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), but ultimately opted for the Silverbulletday against fillies.

She didn't disgrace herself in any of the Oaks prep races, and the connections were right to go down this path as there is nothing wrong with a runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks against the best fillies.

Will there be an equipment change for the Queen's Plate? According to Woodbine publicity, Wonder Gadot wore blinkers while working in 47 flat on Friday.

Trainer Mark Casse and owner Gary Barber obviously think highly of this filly. With her closing style, Wonder Gadot should fare well on Saturday against Canadian males.  

Dixie Moon’s form has almost been as consistent as her rival.

Like Wonder Gadot, she started off her career by racing at Woodbine three times. She began successfully by breaking her maiden, before finishing second in the one-mile Natalma Stakes (G1) on turf. Wonder Gadot ran third in the same race.

Afterward, Dixie Moon went down the ladder to pick up a win in the Cup and Saucer Stakes, and then finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

But unlike Wonder Gadot, Dixie Moon did not follow the Kentucky Oaks trail path, and instead went back to Woodbine to pick up another ungraded stakes win.

She went on the shelf and came back with a disappointing ninth-place finish in the Appalachian Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, before running second in the Selene Stakes (G3) and defeating Wonder Gadot in the Woodbine Oaks.

With the exception of the Keeneland flop, this is a fairly consistent filly. Her trainer, Catherine Day-Philips, is based at Woodbine and hits at a 14 percent clip this year. Jockey Eurico Da Silva wins 25-percent of the time. These are good connections, though possibly more unknown to American players.

Dixie Moon likes to show a little more speed than Wonder Gadot, which might not work in a large Queen’s Plate field. But the value will be a little better. Despite the fact she beat Wonder Gadot, more people know Wonder Gadot because she ran in the Kentucky Oaks and competed in the big Fair Grounds prep races for the Oaks.

Assuming they both start in the Queen’s Plate, both deserve a look this weekend.

Why do fillies fare well in the Queen’s Plate? One reason might be that the Queen’s Plate is restricted to Canadian-bred horses. Even though fillies need to face males, they are running in a restricted race. For example, Belmont runner-up Gronkowski, who owns successful synthetic experience, cannot try the Queen’s Plate, for example. Because of the restriction, the race is not graded.

Subsquently, Queen’s Plate winners are not revered in the same way as Kentucky Derby winners. But at the same time, the Queen's Plate is still filled with an interesting history and tradition, and it remains a noteworthy accomplishment for a filly to defeat males at 1 ¼ miles on synthetic.

This weekend, it will be fun to see if Wonder Gadot or Dixie Moon can pick up the victory and score one for the female side.