Why is speed important in the modern Kentucky Derby?

Speed horses deserve extra consideration in the points-era Kentucky Derby because these types of horses win this crazy race more often than not now.

There are two important reasons why speed dominates today’s Derby. The race does not feature the same insane pace as before. Plus, the usual traffic problems of a 20-horse field give closers another problem as well.

Before the points era, the wicked pace did result in some crazy long shots from the clouds, such as Giacomo in 2005. But those days likely are over because of the lack of true sprinters promoting a meltdown.

Remember Spanish Chestnut in Giacomo's year, or Trinniberg’s presence in 2012? The points system makes it harder for true sprinters such as those two to make the field, which results in the front end today being made up of moderate speed horses with decent stamina. For the most part, today’s “speed” horses in the Derby are not crazy types.

The suicidal pace in 2013 led by Palace Malice running an insane opening quarter has been an exception to the rule. Yes, an extreme pace still could occur under the right circumstances, but the chances are slimmer these days.

In 2014, California Chrome won after stalking a moderate Derby pace compared to historical standards. Ever since his popular win, every horse to cross the wire first has done it from on or near the front.

Another note about California Chrome is that he hated dirt kickback, which meant that running wide and in the clear helped him fire his best.

The field behind California Chrome in the stretch looked like a mess.

Besides the points system eliminating speed, the Derby also makes it hard on closers because of the 20-horse field, making it a stampede at times.

Speed horses gain an advantage because they can avoid most of the traffic problems by clearing the field. Most mid-pack and deep closers must weave through traffic on the far turn. Those horses need to either tip outside while losing ground or hope for luck moving through the inside.

In the points era, only Orb in 2013 has won as a deep closer. Country House in 2019 is typically thought of as a deep closer too. But in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, jockey Flavien Prat kept Country House closer to the pace than expected as he initially ran in ninth by only 6 3/4 lengths in the first quarter.

Country House could not catch Maximum Security late, but Maximum Security’s disqualification moved Country House up to the win.

Prat put Country House in a position to win by keeping him close to the leaders. Although Country House did not technically cross the wire first, the closer early position possibly led to the horse finishing second so that he could benefit from the disqualification. Imagine if he had to close from last.

If jockeys on closers want to win the points-era Kentucky Derby, they will want to take notes on Prat’s ride on Country House and play aggressive.

Having enough speed to stay up front is still preferable. Why did trainer Bob Baffert win so many Kentucky Derby trophies? One reason is that his horses usually go to the front or near the front, giving them every chance to win.

Last year, the ill-fated Medina Spirit did not get to keep his win. Regardless of the cheating controversy, Baffert and John Velazquez had the right strategy in gunning for the lead from the start. 

In 2020, Authentic won after clearing the field from the far outside and securing the lead. In 2018, Justify won after pressing the early pacesetter. In 2015, American Pharoah went into the stalker role against his own stablemate Dortmund. Baffert knows how to make use of his horses’ speed, which contributes to his great winning record.

Over the last few weeks, a number of speed horses defected from this Kentucky Derby, including the fast Forbidden Kingdom, Classic Causeway and Slow Down Andy. On paper, the pace is looking moderate again, at least relative to the wicked Kentucky Derby pace of the past era.

The lack of a fast pace and a 20-horse field seemingly plays into the hands of runners such as Epicenter, Taiba, Messier and Early Voting (if he runs). Those horses need only to use their natural speed to clear the field and avoid traffic. From that point, it becomes a matter of beating the other speed horses on ability and hoping the good closers get caught in traffic again.

On the other hand, perhaps Prat can give Zandon the “Country House trip” from behind the leaders. The importance of jockeys is not high in most races, but in the Kentucky Derby, it could make every difference.