Who are Todd Pletcher's 3 best Breeders' Cup runners?

Trainer Todd Pletcher typically brings a strong group to the Breeders’ Cup, and this year feels no different. With a number of good horses from his barn pointing toward the event, which ones have the best chance to win?

Forte did not make my top three. Because of his poor run in the Travers Stakes (G1) and missed training time because of a quarter crack, he does not feel like a reliable bet at this point in this race.

With that said, here are three Pletcher-trained horses with the best chances to bring Pletcher a win during the Breeders’ Cup on Nov. 3 and 4 at Santa Anita.

Up to the Mark

Breeders’ Cup Mile or Turf

As explained last week, Up to the Mark gave an awesome performance in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 7. The race was Up to the Mark’s first start since he won the Manhattan Stakes (G1) at Belmont back in June.

With two furlongs to go in the Turf Mile and traffic ahead, Up the Mark made a quick move through the middle of the field behind Master of the Seas. Once Master of the Seas moved past Annapolis and took the lead in mid-stretch, Up to the Mark went after him with a furious rally and got up for a nose victory.

The Turf Mile win resulted in Up to the Mark earning an automatic berth into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, although he might end up competing in the marathon Breeders' Cup Turf instead.

At one mile, Up to the Mark packs a dynamite punch that cannot lose. But he probably can handle the 1 1/2-mile distance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf too.

Whether Up to the Mark enters the Mile or Turf, he will pose a threat.

Locked

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile   

Locked suddenly found himself near the top of many top 2-year-old lists when he broke his maiden easily by 7 1/4 lengths in a one-mile Saratoga maiden special weight on Sept. 1. Between the runner-up Drum Roll Please and the third-place Sturdy came another 13 lengths.

Drum Roll Please returned to break his maiden at Aqueduct on Oct. 6, which backed up the quality of Locked's visually stunning win. One day later, Locked tried his hand at graded-stakes company in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, where he started as the 3-5 favorite.

Locked scared his backers when he needed to work in the stretch for a half-length win over The Wine Steward. To his credit, Locked overcame a wide post that led to a wide trip on both turns, while The Wine Steward had the benefit of saving ground and making a rail bid at the right time. 

Both Locked and The Wine Steward earned a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But from a visual standpoint, Locked gave a better impression because of the wide-wide trip, even if he beat The Wine Steward by only a half-length.

If anything, the wide trip in the Breeders’ Futurity made him tougher and more prepared for adversity. Locked goes into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a legitimate contender for Pletcher, especially if he avoids another wide post. 

Candied
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

When Candied broke her maiden for Pletcher at Saratoga on Aug. 20, she won in a somewhat awkward fashion without a proper lead switch.

There were no strong hints she beat a good field in that career debut, as all five other fillies to return from the race lost their next starts. But Candied did not follow the pattern and took the next step forward when she made her graded-stakes debut in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.  

In the Alcibiades, Candied sat in mid-pack for most of the race before making a four-wide bid on the far turn. She then took control from V V’s Dream, although the problem from her maiden win occurred again.

Once again, Candied did not switch leads in the stretch, but even on her wrong lead she was able to outrun V V’s Dream and win by one length. Between V V’s Dream and Aly’s Beach in third came another 5 3/4 lengths.

Despite the decent final time of 1:44.17, Candied earned only a 101 on TimeformUS for the Alcibiades win. The low number is probably not a huge deal as she clearly has talent despite running a little green.

If the pace heats up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Candied can mow them down for Pletcher, who might enjoy great success in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup races if Locked and Candied both run their races. She might not even need to make a proper lead switch.