White Abarrio is the top older horse in Classic division

After his powerful win in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes and the retirement of West Will Power, White Abarrio now arguably stands as the leading older horse pointing toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita in November. In fact, he is the perfect replacement for West Will Power in terms of running styles. 

Before his retirement at the beginning of August, one could make the case that West Will Power stood as the second best older horse behind Cody's Wish pointing toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic after his win in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) at Ellis Park. The win was the culmination of his continued improvement under trainer Brad Cox.

Style-wise, West Will Power either set the pace, contested the pace or sat about a length off the leader. Under Cox’s training since last August, West Will Power had converted from a stalker to a speed horse, and the change helped him become a better runner who went up the ladder.

In contrast to West Will Power's gradual improvement, White Abarrio needed only two starts under his new trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. to pick up his second Grade 1 win in the Whitney, which came more than a year after he won the Florida Derby (G1) for the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn.

Style-wise, though, the two horses are similar. Although White Abarrio tried to run as a closer in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) in his first start under Dutrow, he made use of a better tracking style in the Whitney while sitting a length off the long-shot pacesetter Giant Game.

White Abarrio put away Giant Game at the top of the stretch and opened up on Zandon and Cody’s Wish before they had a chance to make it close. He won by more than six lengths over legitimate Grade 1-level horses, which is the type of performance reminiscent of only just a consistent horse who wins Grade 1 races, but one that completely stands out.   

In that case, White Abarrio surpasses West Will Power in terms of raw ability and power in the stretch. West Will Power gave consistent efforts, but he never stood out from the crowd of good Grade 1 horses.

If White Abarrio keeps building on his Whitney effort, he might become a star. White Abarrio got a 110 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form for his win last weekend, and TimeformUS awarded the gray 4-year-old colt a 132.

West Will Power stood as the second or third best older horse in the Classic division, yet he never earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He came close in the New Orleans Classic (G2) when he won by 4 3/4 lengths with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in March before regressing to a 106 Beyer in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) and 102 Beyer in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1).

White Abarrio rose up the ladder fast with one big performance. But regardless of where he belongs on the list of Classic contenders, he still needs to answer the distance question. Can he win at 10 furlongs?

Pedigree-wise, White Abarrio falls more into the miler category rather than one who should handle 10 furlongs without question. Even though White Abarrio has Tapit as his sire, the female side of his family looks shaky in terms of stamina.

With that said, White Abarrio won the Whitney in a strong enough manner to believe that he will handle the extra distance. Forget about the 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby last year, as that race is typically an outlier for many horses. Right now, there is no hard proof he cannot win at 1 1/4 miles.

Perhaps White Abarrio has become a new horse under Dutrow, who was banned from the sport for 10 years because of multiple rules violations. Sometimes horses wake up and move forward when they enter a different barn, if only because of a new morning routine or different training schedule.  

Dutrow believes the small layoff leading into the Breeders’ Cup should help White Abarrio fire his best race, and the strategy might work. But that means handicappers will not get to see this horse run at 10 furlongs until the Classic, which makes the race difficult to analyze.

Nevertheless, White Abarrio made a strong impression with his Whitney victory, and his expected presence in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November makes the race better in terms of quality. The son of Race Day will get to answer the distance question soon enough.