Which running style works best in the Belmont Stakes?

As a younger handicapper, it became a mission to tell everyone that the Belmont Stakes favored speed. At the time, it was a neat contrarian opinion to hold compared with everyone who assumed it favored closers. After glancing at the last 15 years, though, it is clear the Belmont does not favor any particular style.

As seen in the examples below, pacesetters, stalkers and closers all can win the 1 1/2-mile marathon.

Last year’s Belmont Stakes, won by Tiz the Law, is useless for handicapping purposes because of the temporary nine-furlong distance.

In the last 15 editions of the “real” Belmont Stakes, every style has won.

To start off with pacesetters, the three on-the-lead winners were Justify, American Pharoah and Da’ Tara. Because Da’ Tara upset the field in 2008, no one can assume that only Bob Baffert-trained superstars win by setting the pace in the Belmont.

How did Da’ Tara win at 38-1?

He broke sharp, went to the front and ran in a relaxed manner.

On the first turn, Da’ Tara also created useful separation on his own power.

Moving on, Ruler On Ice won in 2012 from a tracking position behind the pacesetter Shackleford. In the stretch, Ruler On Ice then held off Stay Thirsty, who initially was traveling close to those two in third.

As for traditional stalkers, Tapwrit, Tonalist and Palace Malice fit into this category, along with Rags to Riches. The first three names settled around third or fourth in the early stages of the Belmont and only one or two lengths off the pacesetter. In Rags to Riches’ case in 2007, she was about fifth and two lengths behind the leader at the half-mile point.

From a handicapping standpoint, sitting one or two lengths behind the leader is an ideal spot in most dirt races as it still gives runners a chance if the pace is fast.

In 2013, Palace Malice initially sat in a garden spot behind a trio of horses through opening fractions of 23.11 and 46.11. He took over the lead from Oxbow on the far turn.  

Orb made a mild move into third late.

After fractions of 23.11 and 46.11 for a 1 1/2 ½-mile race, not to mention six furlongs in 1:10.95, one would expect Orb to hold the advantage. But Palace Malice held a more convenient position near the leaders. Once Palace Malice had the lead, he only had to hold on as the marathon distance affected the energy of the closers, including Orb.

In other words, the marathon distance flattens out some closers because those horses need to travel for a longer time than usual before hitting the stretch. Another problem is that some jockeys do not time the moves of closers properly in a 1 1/2-mile race at Belmont and end up emptying the well too soon.

Summer Bird, the 2009 champion, fits into the category of a mid-pack closer.

Watch the contrast between Summer Bird’s grinding action toward the lead and Mine That Bird’s flashy move before the turn.

Mine That Bird blew all of his energy before the stretch run in an ill-timed move.

Other mid-pack horses such as Union Rags and Drosselmeyer also won the Belmont. In each of their cases, those horses wore down a pacesetter who had controlled the race in Da’ Tara style, which shows that controlled speed does not always lead to victory.

To counterbalance Mine That Bird’s failure as a deep closer, horses such as Sir Winston, Creator and Jazil came from many lengths behind to win in their respective years.

In Jazil’s 2006 Belmont, he initially was last and 11 3/4 lengths back.

Yet, the combination of a weak field and lively pace let him close for the win.

As shown above, any running style works in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes. It is best not to fall into the old trap that only closers win and that front-runners are supposed to get tired at 1 1/2 miles. The notion that only speed or tactical speed horses can win this race is wrong as well.

With that said, it helps when the horse knows how to settle into a good rhythm and ration his or her energy properly. The contrast between Summer Bird and Mine That Bird in 2009 highlights this point the most. The Belmont Stakes is not a good situation to run off on the lead three or four lengths ahead or try an explosive backside move from behind.  

In the case of this year’s Belmont, the initial probables list lacks early speed. But there is plenty of time remaining until the race, and the list could change.

No matter the running style, find a horse with ability and who can run in a boring style for most of the race. If he is a stalker or closer, can he make a mild move toward the front without blowing all his energy? If he is a pacesetter, can he relax in a good rhythm in Da' Tara style?

Those are the questions to ask in a little more than two weeks.