Saratoga: Which filly can step up in CCA Oaks and Alabama?

Although Pretty Mischievous holds the lead among dirt routers in the 3-year-old fillies division, the 2023 Saratoga meet might shake up the hierarchy with the Grade 1, $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks on July 22 and the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes on Aug. 19. This is the time for another filly to step up.

One talented filly in particular can make an impact on this meet and move up the ladder if she can handle the step up to Grade 1 stakes company without prior experience. Her name is Scylla, and she runs for familiar names in trainer Bill Mott and owner Juddmonte Farms.

Scylla started for the first time in April in a six-furlong maiden race at Keeneland, and she finished strong with a 2 1/2-length win after starting the race in eighth in the opening quarter. She earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure and 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which are great numbers for a career debut.  

Afterward, Scylla took the next logical step in a one-mile optional-claiming allowance race at Churchill Downs on June 2. In the early part of this race, Scylla raced between horses in mid-pack. Some inexperienced horses do not like that position because it means they will eat dirt, but she handled it well.

On the turn, Scylla tipped outside the other fillies and secured the lead under mild urging from jockey Javier Castellano. In mid-stretch, Castellano stopped riding Scylla and she cantered home easily. Despite not even trying her best, Scylla finished first by an impressive 8 1/4 lengths.

Scylla earned an 87 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 on TimeformUS for the optional-claiming win. For handicapping purposes, though, the numbers are deceptive because they do not represent how fast Scylla can run. The 87 Beyer and 109 on TimeformUS represent how fast Scylla ran without effort.

Given Scylla’s stamina pedigree, it comes as no surprise she improved on the stretchout to one mile. She should want to run longer routes too.

Scylla’s sire Tapit needs no introduction for most handicappers and longtime racing fans. Although Tapit sires all kinds of successful routers, his influence is most felt in the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes on dirt, where he has sired four winners.  

On the bottom side, Scylla is the daughter of the multiple graded stakes-winning router Close Hatches, who found success at the 2014 Saratoga meet with an easy five-length win in the nine-furlong Personal Ensign Stakes (G1).

Close Hatches's most famous offspring to date has been Tacitus, a full brother to Scylla. In his 17-race career, Tacitus won four times, including wins in longer routes such as the 2019 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and 2020 Suburban Stakes (G2).

Since the impressive June 5 win at Churchill Downs, Scylla has worked only once, on July 5. At least the workout came at Saratoga, which shows that Scylla is at the track and does not need to travel if she enters a race. But it does feel like Scylla needs another work soon to make the Coaching Club American Oaks.

If Scylla can get ready in time to tackle the CCA Oaks, the nine-furlong distance likely will not bother the filly. As described above, Scylla displays big route influences on the top and bottom of her pedigree.  

With a successful run in the CCA Oaks, Scylla can convince the connections to take a shot at the Alabama Stakes (G1) next month while stretching out to 10 furlongs. Again, the distance should not pose a problem, especially with Tapit on top.

By the end of the meet, the public’s perception of the best 3-year-old dirt-routing filly could change. Pretty Mischievous holds the lead for now, but as this crop gains experience and some fillies improve, one of them might catch up soon. Maybe Scylla can develop into the top filly.