Which big stable has the best chance to win the Ky. Derby?

Trainer Todd Pletcher must feel great right now, as he has at least two big chances to win the Kentucky Derby with the favorite Forte and Kingsbarns. But how does the two-time Derby winning trainer stack up with his 3-year-olds this year in comparison to Steve Asmussen, Brad Cox and Tim Yakteen?

Here is one opinion of how those four trainers rank against each other on the trail this time around in terms of Derby contenders.

1. Todd Pletcher

As stated above, Pletcher trains two big talents in Forte and Kingsbarns, and both colts seem capable of giving Pletcher a third Derby win. 

Forte brings a five-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, including wins this year in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). Despite working hard to win the latter race, he gets a pass for the smaller winning margin because of the wide post position.

Kingsbarns deserves close to the same respect after his front-running win by a clear margin in the one mile and three-sixteenth Louisiana Derby (G2). He brings a great combination of stamina and speed to the 10-furlong race. If the pace goes too fast, expect him to stalk instead. 

Pletcher might hold a third big contender in Tapit Trice, who starts in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on Saturday. Tapit Trice will need to convince doubters that he can break better and not leave himself vulnerable to traffic.

In addition, Pletcher starts three runners in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) – the maidens Dreamlike and Crupi, as well as Classic Catch.  

2. Brad Cox

Currently, Cox holds one ace in Angel of Empire, and one lesser talent in Jace’s Road. Both 3-year-olds own enough Derby points to get in.

Angel of Empire brings a consistent dirt record to the table with four wins and one second in five starts on the surface. In his last two races, he won the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds and Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn, with the latter win coming by a clear 4 1/4 lengths despite not receiving a fast pace up front to help his closing style.

Cox also starts Hit Show and Slip Mahoney in the Wood Memorial, with the former only needing a finish in the superfecta to make the gate. If Hit Show can make it into the Derby field, he has a chance to win based on his effort in the Withers Stakes (G3) after chasing a fast pace early.

Keep an eye on Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) as well. Although distance questions surround this colt, note the trouble Verifying went through on the far turn in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on his way to a disappointing fourth. If Verifying can keep clear of traffic this time under his new rider Tyler Gaffalione, he may offer more run late. 

In other words, Cox might hold three or four realistic chances to win the Run for the Roses. His one ace at the moment though remains Angel of Empire, while those other runners will need to turn in convincing efforts. Cox might end up taking one or two As and one or two Bs to the race.

3. Tim Yakteen

Practical Move put Yakteen in the spotlight on his own merits when he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, a number that matches Forte’s 100 Beyer for winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall.

Reincarnate also gives Yakteen a lesser chance after his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and third in the Rebel Stakes (G2). Earlier in the year, Reincarnate won the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita while under trainer Bob Baffert, who cannot earn Derby points this year.

Yakteen might add another former Baffert runner to the gate with National Treasure, who has a great chance to hit the Top 3 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Earlier in the year, National Treasure ran third in the Sham Stakes (G3) under Baffert. He also shows a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1).

Unless National Treasure turns in a great performance though, Practical Move feels like Yakteen’s one big chance to win the Kentucky Derby.

4. Steve Asmussen

Will Asmussen make the Kentucky Derby this year? After Disarm’s runner-up finish to Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby (G2), he sits on the edge in 18th place with 40 points. Red Route One owns 33 points and needs help at 21st.

Even if Disarm finds himself outside the Top 20 after this week, he can still get in through defections. Some connections might reconsider whether their horse belongs in the Derby, even with enough points.

If Disarm gets in, he will give Asmussen a realistic chance to win.