Which Pletcher 3-year-old is playable in Kentucky Derby?

With trainer Todd Pletcher bringing a strong and diverse trio to Kentucky Derby 2023 on May 6, bettors might want to use one or two of them in their tickets. But as most players know, Pletcher’s name tends to bring down the value of some of his runners because of the hype.   

This post aims to analyze the playability of Forte, Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice in the run for the roses. How convincing were each of these colts in their final prep races, and how attractive do they look betting-wise?

Forte

After a championship 2-year-old season, Forte has kept on winning in his 3-year-old season. He began his campaign by taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in easy fashion after a good trip before working harder to capture the Florida Derby (G1) from the dreaded Post 11.

Forte needed to overcome a wide post in the Florida Derby, which affected how jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rode him heading into the first turn. He lost ground on purpose early and settled into ninth in the first half. 

But then Forte made a nice move into the far turn and tipped out the widest. He ran down Mage and kept the winning streak alive, although the Daily Racing Form team that makes Beyer Speed Figures gave him only a 95 this time.

If supporters can excuse the lower figure because of the post position, then Forte might seem playable off the hard-fought win. On the negative side, the slower effort did not seem to put a dent in his odds. Forte still remains around 5-2 in most sportsbooks as seen on Oddschecker.

Odds and value aside, Forte could win again. But without a better deal in odds off the Florida Derby run, he does not seem worth the effort to rely on when other runners are close to him in overall ability. 

Forte feels like a Pletcher runner best used defensively at most. Without a speed-figure advantage, he is underlaid as the Derby favorite.  

Kingsbarns

After wins at the maiden and optional-claiming level in his first two starts, Kingsbarns took on the Derby trail in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

The manner in which Kingsbarns won the Louisiana Derby has been a topic of discussion. Under Flavien Prat, Kingsbarns went to the front heading into the first turn, with Jace’s Road the only threat to contest him for the lead. Jace’s Road went easy on Kingsbarns and gave him a slight cushion as the horses straightened out onto the backside.

With no one challenging him up front, Kingsbarns posted slow fractions of 24.71 seconds, 49.60 and 1:14.69. In the stretch, Kingsbarns then opened up on the field and captured his first graded-stakes race by 3 1/2 lengths. 

Given those slow fractions, some handicappers do not believe this colt poses a threat on the front end in the Kentucky Derby. But remember, Kingsbarns went through a fast-paced race in his optional-claiming win at Tampa Bay Downs. In fact, he ran a 143 TimeformUS Pace Figure in the first quarter in that race before moving to the front and opening up.

In both his maiden win at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay races, Kingsbarns ran as a stalker, but this colt also can lead if no one else wants it. Kingsbarns's tactical speed is probably his most useful asset heading to Churchill Downs, as the Derby probables list lacks true pacesetters. 

But Kingsbarns's overall ability still feels like a mystery since his fast-paced effort did come at a lower level against weak runners, and he took advantage of the pace in the Louisiana Derby. On the plus side, backers might end up receiving double-digit odds on this colt, with Forte remaining the favorite and Tapit Trice bound to stay in single digits.

In other words, Kingsbarns feels playable if he draws well and remains double-digits. Out of the Pletcher trio, he also is the most unproven one.

Tapit Trice

Tapit Trice gave the impression of a poor Derby choice at first because of his slow-breaking habit, which was seen at the start of his Tampa Bay Derby (G2) run. Even though Tapit Trice made an excellent late move to gobble up the field from the back, it felt like closing through a 20-horse field would pose a problem if he could not find a way to break more sharply. 

This colt will never win any awards for breaking out the gate, but Tapit Trice did break a bit better in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, which put him in a better spot around the first turn. From there, jockey Luis Saez took Tapit Trice to his preferred outside running position.

Tapit Trice began to move forward on the outside and found himself challenging Verifying for the lead on the far turn, rather than waiting until late in the stretch to make his move as he did in the Tampa Bay Derby. With Tapit Trice attacking early, Verifying answered the challenge.

Although Verifying fought back against Tapit Trice’s move, Tapit Trice dug down and took a small advantage late to prevail by a neck.

Both horses opened up on the field, which is a great sign of a fast race. Back in third, Blazing Sevens finished 5 3/4 lengths behind Verifying.

Tapit Trice earned a career-best 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his Blue Grass win, and he did it in a professional manner while breaking better.

On paper, Tapit Trice backers get a talented colt with a higher Beyer Speed Figure than Forte in their most recent starts and at a better price. Overseas, Tapit Trice has been trading around 5-1 to 7-1. For bettors who want a proven Pletcher runner at good odds, this is the one.

Tapit Trice's overall playability in the Kentucky Derby remains dependent on the post position though, as a middle or wide position will make it easier to settle outside. Hope for a spot in the post 10 to 18 range.