Which Kentucky Derby trail races had high pace figures?

Last year, Medina Spirit displayed some of the fastest TimeformUS Pace Figures in the Kentucky Derby thanks to an impressive pair of opening 151s as the pacesetter in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

This year, there are a couple of Derby trail races on dirt where speed horses endured an extreme pace scenario. Here is a summary of those races with the leader’s pace figures, as well as a short analysis.

The entire chart of TimeformUS Pace and Speed Figures for every Derby prep race is seen on the old Pace Advantage forum.

Jerome Stakes

TimeformUS Pace Figures: 131, 131, 116

Hagler set a fast pace before fading late in his one-mile debut. Courvoisier grinded out a win over the slop. Unfortunately, none of the Jerome horses are expected to enter the Kentucky Derby.

Lecomte Stakes (G3)
TimeformUS Pace Figures: 144, 139, 120

Epicenter ran a deceptively brilliant race. After getting pushed by Surfer Dude around the first turn, Epicenter shook free of his foe and set a fast pace according to TimeformUS Pace Figures. While Call Me Midnight took advantage of the pace scenario to win, Epicenter deserves most of the credit for running hard at all points and finishing a game second by a head. The race set up Epicenter well to capture both the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) in his next two starts, and now he enters the Kentucky Derby as a legitimate contender.

Southwest Stakes (G3)
TimeformUS Pace Figures: 144, 134, 124

Newgrange stalked a fast pace set by Kavod before taking over in the stretch for the win. After a poor effort though in the Rebel Stakes (G2), Newgrange disappeared from the trail and Kentucky Derby consideration. The only Southwest runner scheduled to make the Derby is the closer Barber Road, who picked up second. Barber Road also backed up the effort by running third in the Rebel and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) earlier this month. If he can work out a trip in a 20-horse field, perhaps another minor award is in his short future.

Withers Stakes (G3)
TimeformUS Pace Figures: 151, 151, 126

Early Voting blitzed the Withers field with pace figures of 151 and 151, giving him the same high pace figures as Medina Spirit from last year. Although Early Voting entered the stretch a tired horse, he still had enough to earn a 4 1/2-length win over Un Ojo and Gilded Age in third. In his next start, Early Voting backed up the effort with a runner-up finish to Mo Donegal in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). Un Ojo notably upset the Rebel Stakes (G2) in his next start, although he is not a real Derby threat and did not threaten the leaders at all in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Early Voting is not without a chance to steal the Kentucky Derby on the front end, but he must contest the pace with Epicenter and Messier, if he starts. Trainer Chad Brown indicated he is not certain.

Sunland Derby (G3)
TimeformUS Pace Figures: 147, 147, 133

Slow Down Andy endured a brutal speed duel with Straight Up G and then found enough to win the late battle against a green Bye Bye Bobby. None of these horses will end up entering the Kentucky Derby.

Florida Derby (G1)
TimeformUS Pace Figures: 138, 134, 134

Classic Causeway set the pace and suddenly quit after the half-mile. The presser Simplification went on to battle for the lead with Pappacap on the far turn, before White Abarrio gradually took over in the early part of the stretch. Charge It then came along with his belated rally on the outside to pick up second at the end. Given the fast pace, Simplification ran well as he still had some life in him before fading to third, unlike the disappointing Classic Causeway. Also, in only his third start Charge It closed for second in a Grade 1. On the negative side, the quality of the Florida Derby group is questionable. If Simplification cannot endure the Florida Derby pace and hold off White Abarrio and the inexperienced Charge It, then he is probably not going to win the Kentucky Derby. 

Arkansas Derby (G1)
TimeformUS Pace Figures: 144, 144, 126

Kavod set a fast early pace, but once again he had no stamina late. Cyberknife made nice use of stalking tactics from fourth to pick up the win by 2 3/4 lengths over a closing Barber Road in second. The filly Secret Oath gave fans a thrill by making a brief move before flattening out in the stretch to finish third. Cyberknife has a great running style for the Kentucky Derby as he can stay within range of the leaders without setting the pace. However, he did not defeat a strong group at Oaklawn and figures to become overwhelmed by the step up in field strength. Barber Road might complete the Derby trifecta or superfecta if he can avoid traffic, as there is always a large group of tired horses late.