Which Brown entry is more playable in the Arlington Million?

Although trainer Chad Brown does not bring his strongest group of turf horses to Colonial Downs for the Grade 1, $500,000 Beverly D. Stakes and $1 million Arlington Million Stakes (G1) on Saturday, his best chance might come in the latter race with the returning 5-year-old horse Adhamo.

Adhamo's most recent form might look questionable, but he does get a pass for two bad races last year before his campaign stopped. 

Adhamo ended his 2022 season on a sour note with an eighth-place finish in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and a sixth-place finish in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont. Those two starts marked Adhamo’s only attempts at 12 furlongs, and maybe he found the extra distance too far.

From a pedigree standpoint, it makes sense that 1 1/2 miles is one step too far. Adhamo’s sire Intello works fine as a stamina influence, but his dam side appears leans more toward the sprinter or miler side.  

For example, Adhamo’s first dam Foreign Tune won only up to one mile, as did Adhamo’s second dam Gwenseb. Also, Adhamo’s damsire Invincible Spirit competed only in races under one mile throughout his 17-race career. Most of Invincible Spirit’s progeny compete and win from five to nine furlongs, although there are exceptions as with any pedigree trend.

In his European days, Adhamo won twice at 1 1/4 miles and twice at nine furlongs, and one of those races included the Prix La Force (G3).

Before Adhamo’s two clunkers last year, he picked up momentum over the summer with a runner-up finish to Tribhuvan in the 10-furlong Manhattan Stakes (G1) and a win in the 11-furlong United Nations Stakes (G1). In the latter race, Adhamo won by 1 1/2 lengths over Epic Bromance at Monmouth.

Flavien Prat rode him for those starts and pilots him again Saturday.

In terms of pace in the Arlington Million, the presence of Strong Quality, Atone and Win for the Money should provide fast enough fractions to give Adhamo a fair shot to close in from somewhere around mid-pack.

Adhamo returns off a 308-day layoff for the 10-furlong Arlington Million. But if this horse was not prepared to run this far without a prep race, why would Brown send him here? Brown must have confidence to start Adhamo in a 10-furlong Grade 1 race after he took about 10 months away from racing, otherwise he would start in an allowance race.

The oddsmaker lists Adhamo at 10-1 on the morning line, and if he stays around those odds, that gives the bettor enough value to bet him. After all, how often does a turf horse trained by Brown and ridden by Prat offer value? In most cases, those connections would bring down the odds on the strength of their reputations in turf racing alone.

Brown’s other Arlington Million starter Rockemperor feels a bit underwhelming after a ninth-place finish in the Manhattan Stakes (G1) in June and fourth against weaker horses in the Fort Marcy Stakes (G2) one month before the Manhattan clunker. Given this 7-year-old gelding’s age, he might not bounce back to his best form.

As a small counterargument in favor of Rockemperor though, he did win the Bowling Green Stakes (G2) in his third start of the year last year after two off-the-board finishes to kick off his season. One could make the argument that Rockemperor just takes a while to get warmed up.

Nevertheless, Adhamo remains the more playable Brown entry in the Arlington Million, given his younger age relative to Rockemperor and potential to improve on the cutback to 10 furlongs. With Prat riding this son of Intello, he will at least enjoy the best possible trip whether he wins or losses.