Which 4 Kentucky Derby horses outperformed their odds?

Given the complexities of handicapping the Kentucky Derby and the addition of casual and new players trying their hand at betting the race, a high number of horses usually outperform their odds.

On Saturday at Churchill Downs, four horses in the Derby Super High Five ran better than the expectations surrounding them.

The list includes Mage, who sprung a 15-1 upset on the field. Here is the list of those four horses, including why they were ignored and a short trip recap.

Mage

In his final prep race, Mage turned in a great effort to finish second to Forte in the Florida Derby (G1) after making the first move on the far turn.

Yet the public ignored Mage in the Kentucky Derby for a couple of reasons, including the fact he broke slowly in his races and would need to run as a closer because of not coming out of the gate well. Plus, not many bettors were rushing to wager on trainer Gustavo Delgado in a race such as this one. Most of the general public who plays only on Derby Day wants to bet horses from trainers such as Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox.

Handicappers should probably forget about the idea of Mage as a speed horse. With the way he breaks, Mage runs as a closer now in big races.

This time, Mage fell as far back as 16th and 13 lengths behind at the half-mile pole. But Mage found a golden path to tip out on the far turn and made his way forward outside of horses while avoiding traffic. At the top of the stretch, Mage already had a clear shot at catching Two Phil’s.

Mage moved ahead of Two Phil’s in midstretch and outperformed betting expectations to win at 15-1.

Two Phil’s

The colt with a bad apostrophe dominated his final prep race with a 5 1/4-length win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park over synthetic. With the win, Two Phil's earned an impressive (relative to this crop) 101 Beyer Speed Figure.

But the fact that Two Phil’s won his final prep race over synthetic made him hard to trust. On dirt in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), Instant Coffee beat Two Phil’s in second by 2 1/2 lengths. Then in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), Two Phil’s ran third by 2 3/4 lengths, although he did run deceptively well by striking first on the far turn before getting a bit tired.

Because of those losing dirt efforts, the public left Two Phil’s at 9-1. He almost got the job done after surviving the torrid pace as a stalker who ran just behind Kingsbarns through the early stages. Then Two Phils' made an eye-catching move to the rail to take the lead on the far turn.

Two Phil’s lost to Mage by one length as the fourth choice in wagering to outperform his odds. He outran expectations by beating horses lower than him in odds such as Angel of Empire in fourth, Derma Sotogake in sixth and Tapit Trice in seventh. Give him a long look in his next start. 

Disarm

Disarm put in a good effort to close for second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in late March, but even though the strong closing move in a paceless race did cut into Kingsbarns’ easy lead, it left Disarm slightly short on the points list.

Nevertheless, Disarm’s connections, including trainer Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds, made a late push by running this colt in the Lexington Stakes (G3), where he gave a flat effort by finishing third.

Because of the flat Lexington run, a large part of the public did not give this colt a chance in the run for the roses and left him at 27-1.

With a fast Derby pace ahead led by Verifying, Kingsbarns and Reincarnate, Disarm took advantage of the situation. He mounted a steady closing move from 12th to get into the mix in the early part of the stretch and finish fourth and 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner Mage.

Disarm outran his odds with his fourth-place finish at 27-1. From how it seems on paper and his two best races this year, Disarm also thrives on longer distances.

Hit Show

In February, Hit Show made a splash by capturing the Withers Stakes (G3) by 5 1/2 lengths after stalking a fast pace set by Arctic Arrogance. But in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), Hit Show took a step backward with his runner-up finish to Lord Miles by a nose after bumping in the stretch.

With the Wood Memorial loss to a long shot in Lord Miles on record, bettors left Disarm at 24-1 in the Kentucky Derby. Even though Hit Show ended up fifth, he kept up with the pace and deserves credit.

At the half-mile point, Hit Show traveled the outside stalking position and was only 3 1/2 lengths behind the leader Verifying. From there, Hit Show went forward to reach a striking position on the far turn before flattening out slightly late because of either the fast pace or his limits.

Hit Show finished fifth by 6 1/4 lengths while beating shorter-priced runners such as Derma Sotogake in sixth and Tapit Trice in seventh. In other words, Hit Show outperformed his 24-1 odds and expectations.