Which 3-year-old filly can catch Pretty Mischievous?

With three straight Grade 1 wins on record, including the Test Stakes last weekend, Pretty Mischievous probably has taken the 3-year-old filly Eclipse Award. One other filly holds an outside chance if she can win her next two starts and hope Pretty Mischievous does not win another Grade 1.  

Last month, Wet Paint won the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga, which means she owns one Grade 1 race in addition to the two Grade 3 races she took earlier in the year at Oaklawn on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) trail.

Wet Paint went into the Kentucky Oaks favored off those Oaklawn wins, but she gave a flat effort after making only a mild move for to pick up fourth. Pretty Mischievous made a better closing bid to prevail by a head over Gambling Girl, and Wet Paint ended up three lengths behind the winner.   

Maybe the tides can change and allow Wet Paint catch up to her fellow Godolphin runner Pretty Mischievous. Even though Pretty Mischievous keeps on winning Grade 1 races, she has not been a dominant winner. On the other hand, Wet Paint showed improvement in her Grade 1 win.

When Wet Paint won the Coaching Club American Oaks, she overcame a slow pace including fractions of 24.67, 48.81 and 1:12.59. Sacred Wish held a 2 1/2-length lead at one point in the stretch, and Wet Paint still caught up and outkicked her opponent late for a well-earned win by a neck margin.  

Wet Paint and Sacred Wish finished 8 1/2 lengths ahead of Gambling Girl in third, which is a great sign. Gambling Girl had run second in the Kentucky Oaks, but in this race she failed to keep up with Wet Paint.

For the CCA Oaks victory, Wet Paint earned a matching career-high 89 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form and a career-high 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. From a visual standpoint, she looked like a different filly than the one in early May.

Theoretically, Wet Paint could capture the Alabama Stakes (G1) next week at Saratoga and the Breeders’ Cup Distaff later to give the filly three Grade 1 wins before the end of the year, including one over older fillies and mares. Those wins would give the Eclipse voters a reason to stop and think.

With Pretty Mischievous unlikely to face Wet Paint in the Alabama, Wet Paint might win the race on class. Using the HRN Stakes Tracker, the only other two names on the list are Affirmative Lady and Julia Shining. Both of those fillies will enjoy the 10-furlong distance, but they are not fast runners.

Wet Paint has proven herself at nine furlongs, and her pedigree does not give strong hints that she cannot go longer, although the old saying goes that it is not wise to trust a heavy favorite who tries a distance for the first time.

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff might prove a lot tougher, especially with runners such as Nest and Clairiere leading the older fillies and mares division. But by that point, Wet Paint could blossom into her best form and contend.

Of course, Wet Paint still needs Pretty Mischievous to avoid picking up another Grade 1. Pretty Mischievous might end up in a race such as the Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx before she heads to the Breeders’ Cup, and if she won that race it would give her four Grade 1 wins. 

No matter what, the real winner is Godolphin, who almost certainly will pick up the 3-year-old filly Eclipse Award with Pretty Mischievous or Wet Paint if she can capture those two extra Grade 1 races. With those two 3-year-old fillies at the top of the division, Godolphin rules as the dominant force.

As the Kentucky Oaks favorite, Wet Paint once was arguably the leader of the division, but those Oaklawn races were only Grade 3 races and made it easy for another filly to take over after the Oaks trail ended.

If Wet Paint does not lose any more races this year, she still can turn the tables on Pretty Mischievous and make a run for the Eclipse. Otherwise, Pretty Mischievous will become a near lock to win the award.