Which 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies will succeed on Oaks trail?

Because of the slow final time, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita came off as a weaker edition of the race with some questionable fillies at first glance. Just F Y I barely held on over a closing Jody’s Pride and Candied, and it felt like almost none of them wanted to route as they mostly struggled to finish the race.  

With that said, two runners have good potential to move forward off their runs in the Juvenile Fillies and find success on the Kentucky Oaks trail, and both fillies hail from the Todd Pletcher barn.

The first one to discuss is Candied, as she deserves another chance after closing well for third from a position near the back in the first quarter. Candied began the race in 10th before moving forward through the back side and making a wide move on the far turn to reach contention.

From there, Candied took aim at Just F Y I along with Jody’s Pride and gradually narrowed the gap to lose by only 3/4 of a length. Even though she had a pace setup to help her and lost, it feels like Candied has more in store to offer, especially with the way she runs.

Candied looked awkward in the stretch because she noticeably did not switch leads. Yet, Candied won the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) in October at Keeneland and almost won the Juvenile Fillies without the lead switch.

Pulling off a proper lead switch gives most horses a second wind. If Candied could fix the problem for trainer Todd Pletcher, her ability to rally in a strong manner and pull off wins in Grade 1 races would increase.

As a side note, Candied does seem to switch leads in the mornings as seen in a video on kentuckybred.org, although the switch does not come off as smoothly as one would like to see in a performer at the highest level.

Whether Candied makes the proper lead switch or not, she still ran well for third in the Juvenile Fillies and can move forward. Not every horse in racing needs to switch leads to find success at the highest level.

Out of this race, the other Pletcher filly to keep an eye on is Life Talk, whose lack of punch late resulted from enduring a wide trip on both turns. 

When the fillies rounded the first turn, Life Talk took up a stalking position outside of Brightwork while stuck in either the three or four path. Life Talk’s position did not change on the far turn as she endured another four-wide trip while running outside of Jody's Wish as Brightwork began to fade away.  

In the stretch, Life Talk seemed to lose ground at the first too. But, she surprisingly stayed in the picture in mid-stretch and ended up losing by only 3 1/2 lengths after giving the impression she might fold after the wide trip.  

Life Talk had a right to quit because of the trip, but she kept pace well and seems like a filly who might find success on the Oaks trail as she develops.

In late August, Life Talk broke her maiden by 6 1/2 lengths at Saratoga. Then on Oct. 7, Life Talk faded to third in the Frizette Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct after making a mild inside move on the turn, but not every horse took hold of the slop. Remember that Fierceness did not handle the slop on that card, and he ended up dominating the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field. 

Given that Repole Stable paid $335,000 for Life Talk last September at the Keeneland sale, there are probably high expectations for this runner.

For the most part, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies was a disappointing race run in a slow time. But the race marks only an early point in the career of these fillies, and some of them can progress. Candied and Life Talk still hold potential and deserve a look from bettors moving forward.