What we learned: Blue Grass trip may help Zandon in Ky. Derby

Picking a deep closer in the Kentucky Derby has resulted in a winner only twice in the modern points era. No deep closer on paper has crossed the wire first since Orb in 2013. Years later in 2019, a probable deep closer Country House showed some tactical speed and benefited from a disqualification to win.

If a closer pulls off the Derby win this year, perhaps Zandon could prove another exception to the speed-dominating trend. Zandon overcame both a slow pace and traffic Saturday to capture the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

In the NBC replay below, watch how Zandon initially lagged in third to last, right behind a crowded group, after the opening quarter time of 23.93 seconds was posted.

The crowding indicated a slow pace as did the half-mile in 48.35 seconds.

At the beginning of the far turn, Zandon amazingly sat in last for a few moments. But he started to pick up steam when Volcanic dropped out of it.

Zandon went past Commandperformance and found room between a fading Blackadder and Fenwick. After moving past those three runners, Zandon found some breathing room when Trademark opted to swing outside and push Ethereal Road along with him. Zandon now had some breathing room.

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But Zandon also decided to go outside and ended up brushing slightly with Trademark. Smile Happy had only begun to move into the lead at this point past the pacesetter Emmanuel, but Zandon rallied past him with no problem.

Zandon won by 2 1/2 lengths over Smile Happy with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.

Why was Zandon’s trip important to point out? If picking a deep closer in the Kentucky Derby, choosing one that can handle fitting through tight spaces and taking bumps in a large field is ideal. In today’s Derby, a closer also needs to overcome a pace that feels slower because of the points system.

Not only did Zandon find running room from last and get a little rough with Trademark in mid-stretch, he overcame a 48.39-second half-mile to close for the win.

With all that said, overcoming a 20-horse field is more difficult than navigating through only 10 other horses. But there is no doubt Zandon’s Blue Grass trip gave him the right type of preparation for the Derby.   

Here are some comments on other select Blue Grass finishers:

The aura around Smile Happy has disappeared. He still belongs in the Kentucky Derby, and maybe he can work out a trip, but there is nothing special about him. Plus, Smile Happy still retains a fan following, and Mattress Mack loves to bet horses sired by his stallion Runhappy, making it hard to find value on him.

Emmanuel received a perfect trip as a leader through an easy pace, but Zandon and Smile Happy still passed him in the stretch. As with many Todd Pletcher-trained horses this season, it feels like Emmanuel has been rushed into these Derby points races when he needs more development.

Why was Commandperformance 9-1? In his “prep race” for the Blue Grass, he was blown out by Fenwick in a maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs by 5 1/2 lengths. Sure, Commandperformance ran second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) last fall, but that race was ages ago, and his peers caught up. Beside that point, did Pletcher not see Commandperformance was not ready?

Maidens can win graded-stakes races. In most cases, though, those maidens usually are 2-year-olds making their career debuts against a weak field. Commandperformance was not even close to winning his Tampa Bay maiden race, yet he went off as the fourth choice, shorter than six other horses.

The Blue Grass results show Epicenter is the leading Kentucky Derby contender. Expect him to give a strong effort at Churchill Downs next month.