What we learned: With no value, Occult wins Busanda

With a small field and flaws surrounding the main contenders, the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct did not come across as a great betting opportunity on paper. But it turns out, the public picked the right horse in trusting the maiden winner Occult as the 7-5 favorite. She turned in a good performance at low odds and won the race by a clear margin.

In most cases, taking a favorite with no experience at the class level or distance seems like a bad bet, even if the horse wins. Occult had only two maiden special weights on record at distances of six and eight furlongs.

But if Occult did own any advantage, she held a speed figure edge with a 90 on TimeformUS compared to the 87 and 86 from Affirmative Lady and Gambling Girl. The latter two fillies had run 2-3 in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) in December. Occult also brought important tactical speed to the table, whereas those two fillies lacked that type of early foot.

When the gates opened, Occult made use of her tactical speed to outfoot three of the fillies. But Occult let the long shot Sweetest Princess cross over and secure an uncontested lead, and she fell into a tracking position in second about a length or two behind her. 

Affirmative Lady traveled outside in third and Gambling Girl took up the inside in fourth. A long gap separated Gambling Girl and Aniston in last.

Sweetest Princess hit the first two quarters in 23.88 and 48.77 seconds.

When they reached the far turn, the top four fillies ran as a cluster with only two lengths separating them. Sweetest Princess still held the lead, but Occult matched her as they hit the top of the stretch. Behind them, Gambling Girl found room to tip out next to Affirmative Lady, who took the turn a bit wide as she started to struggle.

As they straightened out, the cluster ended and Occult began to open up on Sweetest Princess, who lasted longer than most people expected. Occult kept looking stronger as they got closer to the wire under Dylan Davis. She won by 3 3/4 lengths over Gambling Girl in second, and Affirmative Lady barely picked up third late over Sweetest Princess in fourth.

Occult finished the nine furlongs in 1:54.78, which earned the daughter of Into Mischief a 78 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form. Earning a 78 might not seem great, but consider that this crop of 3-year-old fillies overall is not fast on speed figures at the moment.

To put the 78 in perspective, Hoosier Philly earned an 81 last time out when she won the Golden Rod Stakes (G2). For now, Hoosier Philly is arguably the division leader. In November, Wonder Wheel posted an 83 Beyer when she prevailed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Occult’s 78 Beyer falls behind them, but only by a few points.

For what it is worth, earlier in the card Henrythethird took a $14k claiming race at the same nine-furlong distance in 1:55.78.

Occult’s future seems bright. If she continues on this circuit in her path to the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she will prove tough to beat with her tactical speed and ability to win from one mile to nine furlongs.

Gambling Girl turned in a credible race for second. She could probably make the Kentucky Oaks if she stays on the trail, but she does not seem like a standout talent. Todd Pletcher likely has better fillies in his barn.

Affirmative Lady started as the 9-5 second choice. She briefly looked like a threat on the far turn when the four fillies traveled as a group. But she failed to continue on with Gambling Girl in the stretch run, as even Gambling Girl got away from her. The fact that Affirmative Lady picked up third by only nose over Sweetest Princess is kind of disappointing. 

As for the betting lesson learned, sometimes a horse with poor value wins. Occult had a lack of experience at both the class and distance. Yet she won the race by a clear margin anyway over two fillies who already owned successful stakes experience from completing the trifecta in the Demoiselle.

What do bettors do when they find a race with poor value? Just skip it. In today’s racing world, most people can bet any race in the country. Certainly, there are races more interesting on the card or at other racetracks than the one race that fails to fit the eye.