What we learned: Two Phil's, Hit Show survive Ky. Derby pace

Even though a true, need-the-lead type did not exist in the field, this year’s Kentucky Derby ended up fairly quick in terms of pace with both Kingsbarns and Reincarnate taking the initiative and making sure Verifying did not get loose up front.

Not too far from the leading trio, two horses in a stalking position ended up surviving the early pace.

Those two pace survivors were Two Phil’s and Hit Show.

Two Phil’s did not exactly break on top. In fact, Confidence Game took Two Phil’s’s path and forced jockey Jareth Loveberry to stay patient and shift out in order to avoid horses. The traffic ahead of Two Phil’s eventually became clear before the first turn.  

As Verifying, Kingsbarns and Reincarnate contested the pace up front in the fast, opening quarter, Two Phil’s moved up between Confidence Game and Jace’s Road and settled fairly close to the leading trio.

Two Phil’s traveled right behind the leaders in the same path as Kingsbarns as they straightened out onto the backside run.

While under heavy pressure from Kingsbarns, Verifying posted fast, initial fractions of 22.35 and 45.73 seconds. The half-mile time resulted in a blazing 160 TimeformUS Pace Figure for both Verifying and Kingsbarns.

With Two Phil’s only 1 1/2 lengths away in fourth and right behind Kingsbarns, he earned a 155 on TimeformUS for his half-mile effort. That is still huge considering fast pace figures on that scale start in the 140 range.

Two Phil’s traveled in about the same position behind the leaders when they started to round the far turn. But then Two Phil’s moved inside of Kingsbarns and secured the lead as the field hit the top of the stretch.

According to the charts, Two Phil’s opened up by 1 1/2 lengths by the one-mile fraction. Mage on the outside soon came with his rally from behind, though. In mid-stretch, Mage matched Two Phil’s on the lead and eventually gained the advantage with less than one furlong left. Mage finished ahead of a stubborn Two Phil’s by one length at the end.

Verifying folded badly to 16th. Kingsbarns hung around longer than Verifying and still held second on the far turn, but he folded to 14th. Reincarnate fared the best out of the trio and faded only back to 13th.  

Considering the pace, Two Phil’s turned in a great race.

Do not forget Hit Show’s effort either, though.

After working out a trip from the dreaded, rail post, Hit Show under Manuel Franco worked out a path to the outside and found himself in a wide, stalking position behind the top five horses at the half-mile point. Running sixth, Hit Show traveled only 3 1/2 lengths behind them.

Because Hit Show settled relatively close to the leaders through the quick pace, he earned an initial 149 TimeformUS Pace Figure for the half-mile fraction. That is still relatively quick compared to the type of pace figures seen in most normal 10-furlong races, even at a high level.

In other words, Hit Show posted the type of initial, pace figure that would put him in the lead in most stakes races. Because Verifying, Kingsbarns and Reincarnate went fast, though, Hit Show only stalked. 

On the far turn Hit Show tried to rally on the outside. He even had a clear shot at the leaders when they hit the top of the stretch, but Two Phil’s never stopped, and Mage moved past Hit Show as he went after Two Phil’s up front.  

Considering the pace scenario, Hit Show had a right to get a little tired. He still ended up fifth and only 6 1/4 lengths behind the winner Mage. In addition to hanging around the leaders in the stretch run, Hit Show finished ahead of Derma Sotogake in sixth and Tapit Trice in seventh.

Hit Show turned in a deceptively good race. He also sports a great distance pedigree. If the connections decide to aim for the Belmont Stakes in June, handicappers might want to give him a second glance at long odds.

With all that said, congratulations to Mage. He has made great leaps in his short four-race career and became the second after Justify to break the curse of Apollo. But the Preakness Stakes probably will come up tough, and he will need his best.