What we learned: Improved break aids Tapit Trice in Blue Grass
Practical Move held on in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), while Lord Miles upset the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. But the star performance award for Saturday 3-year-old Kentucky Derby prep races country goes to Tapit Trice, who made a great step forward in his development when winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
Here is a recap analysis for each of those three important prep races and the winner’s prospects for the Kentucky Derby next month.
Tapit Trice probably won't win any awards for breaking well from the gate. At the start of the Blue Grass though, he did get out of there a little better in comparison to his start in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) last month. Luis Saez still had to ask him, but the early work paid off late.
With the improved better break, Tapit Trice found himself in the middle of the field around the first turn. From there, Saez took an opening to the outside and Tapit Trice started to move forward into a stalking position without any horses hampering his momentum.
The blog choice and 86-1 longshot Clear the Air set fractions 23.32 and 48.04 while running loose on an uncontested lead. But he could not keep up the pace for long and fell into deep waters when they reached the far turn.
Under his new rider Tyler Gaffalione, Verifying sat in a tracking position in second for most of the backside before attacking Clear the Air on the turn.
Verifying immediately had to worry about Tapit Trice rolling up on his outside though. Rather than start his rally from several lengths behind, Tapit Trice became a major threat on the far turn thanks to his improved break and ability to move up on the backside.
Verifying fought through the stretch well enough, but Tapit Trice held the advantage and won by a neck over his foe. Another 5 3/5 lengths came between Verifying in second and Blazing Sevens in third, while Sun Thunder made a mild rally to finish a half-length behind Blazing Sevens for fourth.
Tapit Trice completed the nine furlongs in 1:50 flat, which earned him a 99 Beyer Speed Figure.
The draw will affect Tapit Trice’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby. If this developing colt needs the outside to win, then he will want an outside post somewhere in the Post 10 to Post 18 range to run his best race.
Verifying also deserves credit for his run and heads into Churchill Downs as a realistic contender because of his speed combined with his overall ability. Post position won't be as important for the Brad Cox-trained colt, who should be able to race near the front and avoid the perils of a 20-horse stampede.
If Tapit Trice works out a trip though and gets in the clear, whoever is in front will need plenty of reserves in order to hold off this closing machine.
Practical Move won the Santa Anita Derby, which is enough for most backers to keep regarding him as one of this year's the best 3-year-olds. He earned another 100 Beyer Speed Figure, which is higher than Forte’s numbers on that brand this year and matches Forte's Breeders’ Cup Beyer figure.
That said, Practical Move still seems unlikeable from a Kentucky Derby betting standpoint, at least for the top position.
For the most part, Practical Move enjoyed a good trip around the track in his Santa Anita Derby win. The Tim Yakteen-trained colt took up an inside stalking position for most of the race before moving up on the approach to the far turn and taking control from the long shot leader One in Vermillion.
From there, Practical Move needed to hold off Japan-based Mandarin Hero, who waited behind horses and tipped out, as well as Skinner on the outside. Practical Move prevailed by a nose over Mandarin Hero, with Skinner finishing third.
There are some red flags surrounding Practical Move’s win.
For one, Practical Move needed everything in his tank to hold off Mandarin Hero, who is probably not even as Derma Sotogake, another Japan-based colt whose win in the the UAE Derby (G2) will attract some wagering attention in the Run for the Roses since he won at Meydan easily.
What is the evidence for thinking Mandarin Hero is not as good as Derma Sotogake? Two months ago, Mandarin Hero finished second in the Kumotori Sho to Hero Call. Last December, Hero Call ended up fourth in the Zen – Nippon Nissai Yushun won by Derma Sotogake.
Another point of concern is that Practical Move defeated One in Vermillion, the early pacesetter who faded to fifth, by only 4 1/2 lengths.
Before the Santa Anita Derby, One in Vermillion could not even hit the board when finishing fifth in the Sunland Derby (G3) and only held on by one length in the Riley Allison Derby at Sunland Park over How Did He Do That in second. How Did He Do That ended up a flat fourth in the Sunland Derby.
For One in Vermillion to finish within five lengths of Practical Move feels odd, if Practical Move is in fact one of the top 3-year-olds in the nation.
Practical Move just keeps on winning. Think about those points above though before relying too heavily on him in the Kentucky Derby.
Hit Show faced a tough task in overcoming post 12 in his Wood Memorial bid. That said, he possessed the right tactical speed and talent as well to overcome his post position against a moderate group.
Following a wide trip around the first turn, Hit Show settled into a stalking position behind a contested pace between Arctic Arrogance and Uncle Jake that went in 24.88 and 49 seconds flat for the first two fractions. Hit Show found himself just three lengths off the leaders through the mild half-mile.
Hit Show then moved forward on the far turn and tried to tip out in the stretch, but Lord Miles made it difficult on him and two of them jostled.
Surprisingly, Lord Miles outbattled Hit Show by a nose and survived an inquiry after the race as well to post the huge upset at 59-1.
Lord Miles finished the nine furlongs in 1:51.17 while earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. He does not give the impression of a realistic Derby threat.
As for Hit Show, he deserves a pass for the Wood Memorial because of the poor post position, but it is still disappointing to not see him outkick Lord Miles in the stretch. Hit Show grinded his way to an even finish. Maybe Lord Miles had the advantage of battling from the outside spot
Expect Hit Show’s best day to come in the Belmont Stakes.