What we learned: Speed figures helped in Florida Derby

Classic Causeway went into the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream with low Beyer Speed Figures on hand, while White Abarrio came in with the high Beyer on his resume on a track where his trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. excels.

White Abarrio won, and the Classic Causeway bandwagon became sparse in a matter of minutes when he quit after contesting the pace through the first half-mile.

In fairness to Classic Causeway, they probably went too fast in the early stages.

Under pressure from Simplification and Pappacap, Classic Causeway set initial fractions of 23.67 and 47.24 for the nine-furlong race.

In the nine-furlong Ghostzapper Stakes (G3) earlier in the card, Carlos L. set fractions of 24.24 and 48.08 before stopping and getting pulled up. His closest pursuer Commandeer faded to fifth in the six-horse field.

Those were two long shots who folded out of the picture, though, and Fearless had laid only two lengths off them before powering home to a six-length win.  

Back in the Florida Derby, Classic Causeway began to back up after the half-mile graphic came on screen. Pappacap and Simplification contested the lead while approaching the far turn, as White Abarrio made his move and tipped outside of them. Charge It began to run even wider on the turn.

Worn out from the early pace, Simplification could not stop White Abarrio from securing the lead. At this point, White Abarrio only had to deal with the inexperienced Charge It. Lucky for White Abarrio, Charge It had trouble keeping a straight line when trying to close the gap and White Abarrio won.

White Abarrio’s final time of 1:50.64 is slower than Fearless’ time of 1:50.03. In fairness to White Abarrio, Fearless is supposed to run faster as an older horse. Most 3-year-olds are still in need of development.

In any case, the race highlighted the usefulness of speed figures and the dangers of trusting horses with sharp form from other racetracks.

Classic Causeway begun the year with two wins in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs. Yet, he failed to earn higher Beyer Figures with only an 88 and a regression to an 84 in the latter.

Classic Causeway finished last by 21 1/4 lengths in the Florida Derby.

In contrast, White Abarrio earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in his Holy Bull Stakes (G2) win, and he captured this race by 1 1/4 lengths over Charge It.

This blog prefers using TimeformUS, but the Beyer team at Daily Racing Form deserves praise for giving these 3-year-olds speed figures that proved useful.

White Abarrio now heads to Churchill Downs with a legitimate chance to win, although as stated above, his trainer excels at Gulfstream more than anywhere else. Still, White Abarrio’s tactical speed should prove useful.

Charge It remains a little green and would benefit from pointing toward other races besides the Kentucky Derby at this stage of his career. It is hard to fault the connections for wanting to take a shot at the biggest race with a colt this talented, especially when Charge It is bred to run all day.

Simplification has a shot at the Kentucky Derby too. If the pace was fast, then Simplification endured the fast pace while putting away both Classic Causeway and Pappacap. He then continued to remain in the picture late.

Pappacap looks like he needs a cutback more than anything. He shows no late punch at nine furlongs, making one-mile races more logical.

If O Captain had the points to make the Kentucky Derby, he would make an interesting pick for the third and fourth slots of the trifecta or superfecta.

As for Classic Causeway, does he deserve another chance from bettors? This writer says no. If Classic Causeway cannot handle a hot pace here, he is toast at Churchill Downs at 1 1/4 miles. Expect him to finish last if he runs.