What we learned: Speed carries Wynstock in Los Al Futurity

Whenever trainer Bob Baffert enters multiple speed horses in one race, it always becomes a challenge to figure out which one will end up setting the pace. The challenge made the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity a hard one to handicap because Baffert ran two horses with pacesetting speed and one stalker.

Pointing out which Baffert speed horse will set the pace is important in any race he enters because his runners tend not to stop when put in front. The biggest example of this pattern came when Baffert won the Preakness Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion with National Treasure, who seems to fire his best races only when on the lead.

Wynstock had the early foot on paper to lead the Los Alamitos Futurity, but his class and overall ability were in question with only a maiden win and a mild TimeformUS figure to his credit. In contrast, Wine Me Up had the proper class with his Grade 1 placing and the right speed to set the pace or press. Maybe Wine Me Up could outfoot Wynstock and take the lead around the first turn. 

Instead, Wynstock went to the lead and soon settled into a good rhythm up front, while Wine Me Up took the first turn about four wide from -ost 6.

From there, Wynstock set opening fractions of 23.53 and 47.90 seconds for the 1 1/16-mile race. He also held a one-length cushion through those stages, which makes a difference in whether pacesetters stay in front.

Wine Me Up continued to run wide in third while traveling outside of Stronghold. The third Baffert entry and public favorite Coach Prime settled into last, but he ran only three lengths behind Wynstock after a half-mile.

On the far turn, Wine Me Up took a serious shot at Wynstock up front, and Coach Prime began to wind up with his run on the outside of the field. But after Wine Me Up came near Wynstock with his move, he took the turn wide and began to stall, which gave Wynstock another life in front. Meanwhile, Coach Prime’s rally took a pause as well at the top of the stretch.

As Wine Me Up and Coach Prime had trouble making their moves, Wynstock needed to deal with the threat of Stronghold to his inside. Stronghold moved right next to Wynstock and the two of them battled with light bumping in midstretch. After switching to his wrong lead, Wynstock took back control of the lead and began to inch clear of Stronghold late.

Wynstock won by half a length over Stronghold, with Coach Prime finally mounting his rally late to finish a closing third by only one length.

The son of Solomini completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.53, which resulted in an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. Only 3 1/4 lengths came between Wynstock and Wine Me Up in fourth, which is not the greatest sign for Wynstock. When races end up with a fast figure, in most cases the field spreads out thin, but this one had four horses within a close margin to each other. 

Stronghold's performance also gives the race a good measuring stick. He almost won against Wynstock on Saturday at Los Alamitos. Yet Stronghold was not anywhere near Nysos in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. Wynstock’s failure to put Stronghold away in a stronger manner is not a great sign for the quality of his win.

At this point, Wynstock does not give the impression of a top runner on the Kentucky Derby trail as the points races on this circuit move to Santa Anita. In the Los Alamitos Futurity, he benefited from an uncontested lead through a moderate pace, as Wine Me Up took the first turn wide and did not engage. Wynstock had a dream trip for a speed horse making his stakes debut.

On the plus side, Wynstock could step forward as a 3-year-old. He made his graded-stakes debut a winning one and seems to want more distance. But he will need to improve on that 86 Beyer Speed Figure. 

In any case, the same story played out. The Baffert-trained pacesetter went to the lead and got into a comfortable rhythm before repelling challengers on the far turn and stretch. With this barn, the same scenario happens repeatedly in graded-stakes races, sometimes at surprising prices as with Wynstock winning at 13-1.

Baffert knows how to use the natural speed of his good horses, and other trainers might try to rate their horses as the distances get farther. When two or three Baffert speed horses enter the same race, it just gets difficult to decide which one of those horses will end up setting the pace.

In this case, it looks like Wynstock got the nod to go ahead and aim for the lead, especially with the post position he drew. Wine Me Up was the designated stalker, and Coach Prime initially trailed the field. All three of the Baffert horses initially started the race apart from each other.

When a trainer enters multiple horses in the same race, there is normally a strategy to avoid getting in the way of each entry.

Keep Baffert’s main strength in mind when handicapping races with his horses in the future. If it becomes clear one Baffert horse will go to the front, then that horse will almost always run big, even if the overall form or figures seem a bit moderate relative to the field.