What we learned: Slow pace affects Monomoy Girl results

Hoosier Philly won the Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes in an effortless performance at Ellis Park on Saturday, but her main opponent Wet Paint gave a good effort to narrow the gap in the stretch and pick up second. Because of the pace scenario, Wet Paint never had a chance to mount a challenge, which makes her runner-up finish more forgivable.

The end of the race came soon when Hoosier Philly secured an uncontested lead over Sabra Tuff in second. Sabra Tuff closed from the back in most of her previous races, but now here she was tracking Hoosier Philly in second.

When a natural closer such as Sabra Tuff travels up close to the pacesetter, the pace is in all likelihood extremely slow, and the fractions for the Monomoy Girl reflect this assumption. Hoosier Philly led the field through 25.23 and 48.86 fractions for the opening quarter and half-mile for just a one-mile race. She also held a two-length cushion at the half.

Good speed horses do not give up an uncontested lead in 48 and change for the half in a one-mile race. Hoosier Philly had disappointing runs earlier in the year, but she put herself back in the category of a good speed horse by finishing a solid second to Taxed in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) at Pimlico in May after setting the pace.

While Hoosier Philly set the crawling pace in this race, Wet Paint lagged in fifth in the five-horse field with four lengths to make up. Even though four lengths does not seem huge, especially in dirt racing, she was compromised by the fact Hoosier Philly had not tried to run through the first half and remained loaded. Wet Paint would end up moving too late.

On the far turn, Hoosier Philly began to open up under her own power and led by as much as 4 1/2 lengths in the stretch. Only Wet Paint had the talent and ability to catch her, but there was no pace to set up the rally and she started the engine too late. 

Wet Paint ended up rallying with a decent move through the inside. She cut Hoosier Philly’s lead to 3 1/2 lengths at the end, and she had 5 1/4 lengths on the third-place filly Flamand, which means Wet Paint ran well through a bad pace scenario.

Nevertheless, Hoosier Philly won the race and completed the mile in 1:36.39, which resulted in an 80 Beyer Speed Figure and 107 on TimeformUS. Wet Paint shows a higher 109 on TimeformUS for the runner-up effort because the TimeformUS system gave her pace credit.

Keep in mind that plenty of good speed horses who set slow fractions end up looking great in the stretch. For example, take a look at Kingsbarns’s win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in April at Fair Grounds. Hoosier Philly ran well, but the slow pace had a hand in the win as Wet Paint was coming in the stretch with a decent move. 

At the same time, Hoosier Philly has regained good form after a second in the Black-Eyed Susan and a win in the Monomoy Girl in her last two starts. Earlier in the year, Hoosier Phill had odd fades in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), and it felt logical to assume she had not made the progression from a top 2-year-old filly to a top 3-year-old filly. In the Fair Grounds Oaks, she lost by 15 1/4 lengths. But now, Hoosier Philly has put herself back into the top mix.

Wet Paint gave a nice effort to close the gap in the stretch. But she no longer feels invincible after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and running second to Hoosier Philly in this spot. It does not feel fair to take a low price on Wet Paint in the future given the two losses in her last two starts.

Both Hoosier Philly and Wet Paint ran well. But Hoosier Philly has the upper hand because of her speed, and Wet Paint will always run as a closer and rely on the pace scenario ahead when facing the better fillies in this division.