What we learned: Randomized thrives on lead in Alabama

With only five starts, Randomized can still develop and change as time goes on. But after wiring the field in the grueling, 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga, one pattern seems clear in this filly’s form.

She wants the lead.

Last year on this course Randomized finished a fading third in a six-furlong, maiden special weight after stalking the leaders closely in the early stages. After that race she hit the shelf and did not reappear until last spring.

When Randomized broke her maiden back in March at Aqueduct, she set the pace while under pressure from Gifted before opening up on that opponent in the stretch and winning by an impressive 5 1/2 lengths with a noteworthy 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Only one of the fillies in that maiden field finished first in her next start, though, and it came in a maiden claimer, which made the win a bit harder to trust.

Randomized seemed to back up that theory a few months later. She disappointed in her next start by finishing a non-threatening sixth in the Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont, but she notably failed to secure the lead while suffering from a wide trip.

About a month later Randomized set the pace running uncontested early in the local Wilton Stakes and won by just 1 1/2 lengths over second-place Just Katherine. Even with the small margin, Randomized went back up the speed-figure scale to a 112 on TimeformUS after another pace-setting win, albeit against a weaker field.

Randomized attempted to climb the ladder again in the Alabama with new rider Joel Rosario. To Rosario’s credit he wasted no time in clearing the inside and sending the filly to the front once the gates opened. Defining Purpose showed speed, too, but she opted to sit off the lead.

With moderate pressure from Defining Purpose, Randomized posted the opening quarter in 23.45 and half-mile fraction in 47.86 seconds. Without knowing the pace figures, those fractions probably fall on the fast side for 1 1/4 miles.

On the approach to the far turn Randomized still led the field with Defining Purpose remaining close. Wet Paint and Taxed were chasing in third and fourth, but Randomized and Defining Purpose began to separate from them.

Randomized took a wide turn, possibly as a strategy to force the pressing filly Defining Purpose wide, too. The tactics seemed to work when Randomized started to open up on Defining Purpose at the top of the stretch. Wet Paint came along steadily with a mild rally on the inside while under a ride, but it never looked like she threatened Randomized. 

Under encouragement from Rosario, Randomized won by four lengths with Wet Paint in second. A tired Defining Purpose was third, 1 1/2 lengths behind Wet Paint. The closer Sabra Tuff passed tired fillies late to complete the superfecta while finishing 8 1/2 lengths behind Defining Purpose.

Taxed failed to run with Wet Paint in the stretch and faded to fifth. She ended up being disqualified and placed sixth for interfering with Gambling Girl.

Randomized completed the 1 1/4 miles in 2:03.07, which resulted in a 98 Beyer Speed Figure.

In summary Randomized took control early and flattened out the field. The tactics and final result felt reminiscent of Questing’s successful, pace-setting tactics in the 2012 edition of the Alabama, in which she also set a fast pace and opened up in the stretch after the closers became too tired.

Perhaps Randomized’s speed will take her a long way in this division. At this point in her career Randomized thrives when setting the pace and arguably turns into a different filly when she uses those tactics. Maybe if she continues to run next season, too, she can develop a stalking style.

As for the runner-up filly and public favorite, Wet Paint had no real excuse to not catch the winner. Certainly, the combination of a somewhat quick pace and needing to run faster in order to keep up the stalking position likely resulted in a flat effort in the stretch. On the other hand, those are minor issues a top filly should overcome to win.

Defining Purpose put in a good effort to pressure Randomized and cling to the pacesetter on the far turn. She just was outrun in the stretch.

What happened to Julia Shining and Chocolate Gelato from the Todd Pletcher barn? Julia Shining finished ninth and 57 lengths behind, and Chocolate Gelato ended up last and 64 lengths behind. Was it an issue of fitness? Julia Shining had a tough task of coming off a significant layoff to run 1 1/4 miles, but experienced trainers know if a horse is ready for that kind of challenge. Maybe something else went wrong. 

Wherever Randomized shows up to race next time, her chances depend on securing the lead. If it looks like the race is filled with other pacesetters to challenge her, then maybe that is not the time to bet this improving daughter of Nyquist.

On the other hand, if she can secure the lead comfortably in a race with no other true pacesetter, then watch out.