What we learned: Paradise Woods unlucky, also unreliable

Paradise Woods stumbled at the start of Saturday's Santa Maria Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park, and at that point, those who bet the 5-year-old mare to win had every right to lose hope, as Paradise Woods never handled adversity well in the past.

This one's best game was always utilizing her speed to open up on the far turn. But she recovered and ran well.

While she still lost, Paradise Woods did not compound the mistake by acting rank or resenting her position. Rather, she settled into a smooth rhythm for Mike Smith heading into the first turn and waited patiently behind horses.

Smith’s mistake was possibly waiting too long.

Paradise Woods had a small opening to tip out first after the half-mile point. But La Force started her move and beat Paradise Woods to the spot.

Then, instead of following La Force outside, Smith gambled by continuing to wait inside for an opening. Paradise Woods finally tipped out at the top of the stretch, but at that point La Force already hit her best stride and won.

For what it is worth, Paradise Woods continued to gain ground toward La Force. Ultimately, it was too little, too late.

From a betting standpoint, Paradise Woods’ problem is that she takes a ton of money for a horse dependent on a good break. Bettors laid off her in the Santa Monica Stakes (G2) and Beholder Mile (G1), but she ran at 3-5 in the Santa Margarita Stakes (G2) off seven straight losses and at 1-5 in the Santa Maria. The public loves spending money on this unreliable mare.

In other words, Paradise Woods ran well in the Santa Maria. Just do not expect to receive any kind of value when she pops up again.

La Force is a play-against on top as well. She will revert back to seconditis, at least at this level.

Two to bet leaving the Penn Mile

After a fast opening quarter in 22.47 over a yielding course, Real News fried A Thread of Blue and Forty Under in the Penn Mile (G2) at Penn National.

If there is one main takeaway, it is that Real News needs to cut back slightly. In two one-mile starts, this pacesetter has given up the lead in the stretch twice. When he ran in sprints, he stalked the pace and closed.

Real News does not need to cut back to five furlongs, but somewhere along the six to seven-furlong range is what he wants. One mile is too far.

A Thread of Blue deserves a pass from bettors, as he endured the opening quarter and did not fade too badly in the stretch, holding on for a clear fourth. Forty Under faded to eighth and last, which makes his effort a lot more disappointing after he handled a yielding course at Aqueduct.

Moon Colony ran well to win, but he got lucky when Real News softened up the front.

The right horse to bet back from this race is A Thread of Blue, or Real News if he cuts back in distance.

Well, I called this one...

The “other” Chad Brown horse won the Pennine Ridge Stakes (G3) at Belmont when Demarchelier tipped outside and mowed them down.

As for stablemate Value Proposition, he set a 24.53 opening quarter and 49.27 half, and folded to seventh and last as if those were blazing fractions. Clint Maroon, the horse pressing him in second, also faded to fifth.

Demarchelier gets credit for going six wide. He probably started at 5-1 compared to Value Proposition’s 3-1 because of speed figures, as TimeformUS listed him with lower numbers than Value Proposition.

Turf figures are not as helpful compared to dirt, although that's a discussion for another day. I believe class and trip to be priorities on the grass, making turf handicapping a longer, deeper process.

Wilbo's not done yet

At Churchill Downs, it was nice to see the 7-year-old veteran sprinter Wilbo outrun the field in the stretch to pick up the Aristides Stakes win.

The public loved Share the Upside enough to bet him down to 3-5, but he looked vulnerable with two other speed horses in the race – Mr. Crow and Zipp On By. While the former failed to break well, the latter went straight to the lead, and Share the Upside felt his presence and faded.

Share the Upside still remains a young gelding at 4 years old and will pick up his first stakes win soon.

Wilbo is moving closer to the end of his career, but trainer Chris Hartman spots this gelding well, as he owns 10 wins and an impressive 24 in-the-money finishes in 33 career starts.