What we learned: Pace affects In Italian in Diana loss

Once In Italian took the early lead in the opening quarter of the Diana (G1) at Saratoga, the chances of her winning a second edition of this race looked mostly good. Despite the fact that In Italian secured the lead though with a slight cushion throughout the race, negative points about her trip led to Whitebeam prevailing late.

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For one, the pace likely went faster than the raw fractions made it seem.

In Italian posted fractions of 23.96, 48.00 and 1:11.86 for the nine-furlong distance, which feels slow enough for a front-runner to relax. But the field separated into three parts, which suggests a faster pace. In contrast, a slow pace on turf results in a bunched-up or clustered group.

In Italian led one group with Fev Rover close on the inside and Whitebeam traveling outside of Fev Rover. Through the opening quarter and half-mile, five lengths separated Whitebeam from the fourth-place Marketsegmentation, with another few lengths back to Fluffy Socks.

The gap between Whitebeam and Marketsegmentation signals a fast pace, or at least a moderately fast pace. It happens when the speed horses run faster than usual while the closers travel at their normal tempo or cannot keep up with the speed horses for other reasons.

Also, earlier rain possibly left some moisture in the turf. The track officially put the firm label on the course, but trainer Chad Brown felt the turf was “soft” in his post-race comments found in the NYRA Stakes Recap.

Brown said, “It was really tight there, and In Italian ran her heart out. I think the turf’s pretty soft, and she was going pretty quick there.”

Even minor wetness on turf can slow the course and make slow fractions turn into moderate ones, or moderate fractions turn into a fast pace. With those points in mind, the 48-flat half does not look as moderate.

Besides the pace, the excellent ride Flavien Prat gave Whitebeam also led to the promising filly's victory. Whitebeam sat close to In Italian without dueling the speedy mare head to head. After a sharp break, Whitebeam eagerly went toward the front and took a tracking position right outside of In Italian and about a length behind.

Whitebeam never fell more than 1 1/2 lengths off In Italian’s lead before tackling In Italian directly in the stretch and prevailing by a nose late. 

The aggressive tactics from Fev Rover also played a part in the outcome, as In Italian felt two good runners moving at a high tempo just behind her, and their presence led to In Italian needing to run faster early on. 

Even though In Italian still held a slight cushion throughout the race, she had to work to maintain the lead, rather than loaf along as she did in the Just a Game (G1) or Jenny Wiley (G1) earlier in the year.

Whitebeam deserves plenty of credit. Despite running out of the same barn, she made great use of her tactical speed to make sure In Italian had to run faster than usual, and then she met her and fought bravely for the win. She won with aggressive tactics, but they were not aggressive enough to cost both of their chances. In Italian had a chance.

At the same time, In Italian deserves credit for enduring the faster-than-usual pace and fighting back when challenged by Whitebeam. In Italian might never offer great value betting-wise, but she always will go to battle late as long she secures the lead uncontested in the first half. 

Fev Rover also started to get close to the top two late after initially not keeping up with them in the stretch run. She lost by only half a length.

Whitebeam completed the nine furlongs in 1:48.33, which resulted in a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form. Turf figures usually are not as important to follow in terms of handicapping. Just know that Whitebeam ran a winning race worthy of the Grade 1, and she will contend next time. 

In Italian probably will win again. Almost nothing about this loss indicates she has lost form. But again, she never offers any value anymore, and to lose after an uncontested lead feels disappointing, even with a fast pace.

Also watch for Fev Rover, who might offer a great price next time. Remember that she lost this race by only a half-length, and she is rounding into her best form.

The Diana was a difficult one to bet, but there was a lot to unpack afterward, with Whitebeam emerging as a new threat in this division and In Italian losing even after an uncontested lead. As a 4-year-old filly, Whitebeam should only improve and become even faster.