What we learned: Pace affects Rachel Alexandra, Risen Star

Two different pace scenarios helped lead to the results for the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra and Risen Star at Fair Grounds. In the former race, Pretty Mischievous pulled off the minor upset over Miracle, while the latter featured Angel of Empire prevailing over Sun Thunder.  

What happened to the Rachel Alexandra favorite Hoosier Philly and the Risen Star favorite Victory Formation? Here are the race recaps. 

Rachel Alexandra

With a slow pace on tap, the lone speed Miracle was expected to secure the lead and take them as far as possible. Despite the combination of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher, the public mostly left Miracle alone at 13-1 because she had raced only against New York-bred fillies. 

Miracle almost pulled it off. With urging from Velazquez, she secured the lead from the outside by the first turn and posted fractions of 25.02 seconds, 48.85 and 1:13.05, which feel slow for the 1 1/16-mile distance.

But Pretty Mischievous remained near Miracle in second, and she moved outside of Miracle on the far turn to set up a stretch battle between them. 

Although Miracle initially fought back against Pretty Mischievous, the daughter of Into Mischief slowly took control in mid-stretch and won by three-quarters of a length. In other words, the first two fillies at the half-mile pole ended up first and second in reverse order at the finish. Overall, both fillies performed well.

The favorite Hoosier Philly broke awkwardly with a slight bobble and never could recover properly. She raced in tight quarters behind horses early on before attempting to move outside on the far turn and ultimately flattening out as Pretty Mischievous and Miracle opened up on them.

Pretty Mischievous completed the 1 1/16-mile distance in 1:45.15 and earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure for her winning effort. She also paid a generous $18.20 to win and $6.60 to place as an 8-1 shot.

In the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) last November, Hoosier Philly beat Pretty Mischievous by five lengths. But Pretty Mischievous improved one month later by winning the local Untapable Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths over The Alys Look, who returned to capture the Silverbulletday Stakes.

Now, Pretty Mischievous beat Hoosier Philly by 8 1/2 lengths, although Hoosier Philly did suffer from a bad trip and possibly deserves forgiveness for failing to fire off the layoff. Most horses peak or at least return to form in their second or third start off the layoff. 

Miracle had only state-bred experience, but she offered value odds and the speed figures were comparable. In that case, it is not the worst idea in the world to take a shot on the horse without the same class level. 

Risen Star

In contrast to the Rachel Alexandra, the Risen Star ended up with fast fractions for the nine-furlong distance. Heading into the first turn, Determinedly, Harlocap and Victory Formation all went to the front.

The latter two speed horses conceded the lead to Determinedly, who rattled off fractions of 23.34 and 47.50 seconds before Harlocap took the slight edge while posting the six-furlong fraction in 1:12.21. But his lead did not last, as Two Phil’s then hit the front as they reached the top of the stretch.

Two Phil’s did not last long on the lead either, as he needed to fend off Angel of Empire and Tapit’s Conquest to his outside and Sun Thunder on the rail. The lead kept switching because none of the early speed horses could handle the pace, and the closers gradually took over. 

Angel of Empire pushed forward to take command and prevail by one length over Sun Thunder. Two Phil’s managed to hold third over Tapit’s Conquest, who had no excuse to not finish off the race after rallying on the outside. Tapit's Conquest simply hung in the stretch run. 

Regardless, closers dominated the superfecta in the Risen Star. In the opening quarter, the final top four finishers were ninth, 12th, seventh and 10th. Yet they all found their way to the top.

Two Phil’s deserves pace credit for attacking the front first. But he did not finish off strongly for the second race in a row, which brings into question whether he likes routing or wants to cut back slightly. 

Angel of Empire completed the nine furlongs in 1:51.47 while earning an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. Given the pace collapse, it is hard to say whether he can beat these types of horses on a consistent basis.

Victory Formation defeated Angel of Empire by three lengths before, and now he faded 15 1/2 lengths behind Angel of Empire. Right now, the feeling is that the pace went fast enough to not give the speed horses a fair chance.

The last takeaway is that Tapit’s Conquest feels hard to trust after failing to finish off the race from both the inside and outside in his last two starts.

The pace collapse makes it hard to rank any of these horses except maybe Two Phil’s, who ran his expected race. More observation is needed.