What we learned: Old betting rule stands in Del Mar Debutante

When trainer Bob Baffert enters 2-year-old stakes races, handicapping or betting rules sometimes get thrown out the window by accident.

For example, I chose the favorite Home Cooking in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (G1), even though she had no experience beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. As written on here before though, taking a favorite with no experience at the race’s distance or surface is not a great idea.

Home Cooking had looked brilliant in her local 9 1/4-length romp on Aug. 21. Would seven furlongs really pose a problem for the Honor Code filly?

Unfortunately, yes. She became leg weary in the last stage.

If there is one human fault, maybe jockey Mike Smith let Home Cooking move too early. After the opening quarter in 22.01 seconds, Smith let Home Cooking loose from the outside and she took the lead well before the turn.

Smith rode Home Cooking as if he sat on a superstar rather than a developing filly who might need a more careful ride on the stretchout.

Remember that Home Cooking did not lead until the turn in her maiden win. Following the use of new stalking tactics, she swung outside the two leaders on the turn before hitting the front and pulling clear by a huge margin.

This time, Home Cooking was moving well after a half-mile in 44.36 seconds and held the lead on the turn by 1 1/2 lengths over the maiden Ice Dancing and Kissed By Fire. And Tell Me Nolies started to move on the outside, but she needed to get hard ridden to reach that point, while Home Cooking glided on the lead.

Home Cooking lengthened her advantage to three lengths through six furlongs in 1:09.92, and the race seemed over. When a Baffert runner holds a three-length advantage in mid-stretch, he or she usually finishes off the race.

Even Smith thought the race was done, as he did not use the crop on Home Cooking in the early part of the stretch. And Tell Me Nolies kept grinding away, and suddenly she became a threat late in the race. Smith now began to strike his mount with urgency, but Home Cooking did not respond.

And Tell Me Nolies caught the tired Home Cooking and won by a head. She finished the seven furlongs in 1:23.29. As of this writing, neither the Beyer Speed Figure or the TimeformUS Speed Figure is officially posted yet.

In her local Aug. 14 maiden win, And Tell Me Nolies had won in a less flashy way than Home Cooking by running down a Baffert-trained filly named Halosnheaven to prevail by a neck. Ice Dancing ran third in the same race, and she ended up third again in the Del Mar Debutante.

The big plus on And Tell Me Nolies’ form is that she won at 6 1/2 furlongs in her narrow maiden win over Halosnheaven, while the rest of the field minus Ice Dancing did not show any experience beyond six furlongs. But it still felt as though the raw talent of Home Cooking would overwhelm these fillies.

Well, the distance plus a questionable ride from Smith caught up with Home Cooking. In addition, And Tell Me Nolies likely took a step forward as well, while rewarding bettors at 9-1 thanks to all the money on Home Cooking.

The race results show that the old betting rule still stands. When a heavy favorite tries a new distance for the first time, it makes sense to look for another option rather than take a premium on an inexperienced horse.

Home Cooking might deserve another chance to compete at seven furlongs or longer. In terms of betting, she needs to prove herself. Because the public will remain eager to bet this filly, she is a likely underlay next time.

And Tell Me Nolies put herself in the mix of top 2-year-old fillies. Granted, she took advantage of a filly who got a questionable ride and likely did not handle the stretchout to seven furlongs in her first try. With that said, And Tell Me No Nolies owns the pedigree to thrive at longer routes as a daughter of Arrogate out of the Exchange Rate mare Be Fair, who was a router.

Also watch Ice Dancing in the future. As a maiden, she just finished third in a Grade 1 race. Mandella does not typically spot his horses aggressively, which means he sees something in the mornings from Ice Dancing that indicates big talent.

And Tell Me Nolies and Ice Dancing deserve long looks next time, while Home Cooking now becomes the horse to play against at short odds.