What we learned: O'Connor is overbet in Harlan's Holiday

When discussing class on an international level in terms of dirt racing, the U.S. consistently offers the highest quality. As for South America, in most cases the standards of dirt racing do not measure up to those in the U.S.

But exceptions always occur and sometimes the best South American horses move here and become stars, especially if they began their career in Brazil. The racing in Brazil might rank as the best down there. As for Chile, the racing there is a step below on a consistent basis.

In the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Saturday, the Group 1 winner O’Connor from Chile tried to establish himself as a viable Pegasus World Cup (G1) contender. But it turns out O’Connor found a trio of 3-year-olds in Skippylongstocking, Pioneer of Medina and Simplification too difficult.   

Skippylongstocking, Pioneer of Medina and Simplification showed faulty form for various reasons. Regardless, the trio had competed against the best dirt 3-year-olds in the country, which made them the best on paper class-wise. Skippylongstocking and Simplification both dropped from a recent Grade 1 into a Grade 3, and Pioneer of Medina had previous graded-stakes form from earlier in the season on the Kentucky Derby trail.

But the public treated O’Connor as the best by betting him down to an underlaid 6-5, even though his only win on this soil came in a local optional claiming race over Octane in second and washed-up Sole Volante in third. Now he needed to face a trip with graded-stakes colts who had seen some of the best horses in the country not long ago. 

Granted, O’Connor won his Gulfstream optional claimer by six lengths in an easy enough manner that gave hope he could take another step forward in this country. But regardless of whether one liked his chances, he had no credentials to deserve those 6-5 odds, or even his 9-5 morning line. Yet he started at 6-5.

As for O’Conner’s trip in the Harlan’s Holiday, he came out well enough before letting the speed horses outfoot him to the first turn. From there, O’Connor settled toward the rear in fifth and then sixth through fractions of 23.75 and 47.14 seconds.

Meanwhile, Pioneer of Medina found his speed again after plodding out of the gate in his recent starts. He led the field through those moderate fractions, with Skippylongstocking right on his tail.

Cooke Creek and Simplification traveled behind the leading pair, with Clapton opting for the outside position behind them in fifth. After initially running inside of horses, O’Connor switched outside Clapton in sixth, and Strike Hard and South Bend lagged behind in seventh and last.

When the field rounded the far turn, O’Connor made a move and began to pick off a few horses to his inside. But when only Pioneer of Medina, Skippylongstocking and Simplification were ahead of him, O’Connor stalled.

Skippylongstocking led the field in the stretch as Simplification started to move closer on the outside and Pioneer of Medina kept pace on the rail. O’Connor could not get any closer and even started to lose a length or two.

In a determined effort, Skippylongstocking repelled Simplification and won by two lengths over Pioneer of Medina, who somehow fought his way into second. Simplification ended up third in the 10th start of his campaign.

Skippylongstocking completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.76, which earned him a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form. Earlier in the card, the green 2-year-old Expect More crossed the wire first at the same distance in 1:46.33 before getting disqualified to second in a maiden special weight. In other words, Skippylongstocking ran a fast race.

O’Connor finished a non-threatening fourth by 4 1/4 lengths while burning a ton of win money. Given that O’Connor consistently competed at nine furlongs and farther in Chile, maybe he needed more distance to show his best. He still might develop into a nice horse at the graded-stakes level.

But the public treated O'Connor as the best off those Chile races and the local optional claimer against suspect competition, and that made him a noticeable underlay, even if the public also did bet Simplification down to 2-1 off his bizarre 5-1 morning-line odds.

This blog recommended Pioneer of Medina as the ignored horse, and suggested waiting to bet Skippylongstocking down the line after he had more distance and rain. Ignoring Skippylongstocking was a mistake, especially since he already completed the trifecta on fast dirt in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and Belmont Stakes against the best.  

For those who like win and place bets, Pioneer of Medina paid a generous $7.60 to place. He almost looked certain to finish third at one point, but when Simplification started to fade, he fought for second. He needs to develop more to contend in races such as the Pegasus World Cup (G1), but if the connections go in that direction, maybe he can hold on for a piece.

The next time a South American horse enters a graded-stakes race with no credentials on this soil, make him prove himself before accepting low odds.