What we learned: Nest is on a different level from Secret Oath

Last month, Nest dominated Secret Oath in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga by an incredible 12 1/4 lengths. Sunday in the Alabama Stakes (G1), Nest defeated Secret Oath by only a third of that margin. Regardless, Nest remained impressive in winning her third Grade 1 race.

The reason for the smaller margin is the slower pace. When the pace runs fast, the chances of the race turning into a blowout become greater because more horses fade or stop in this situation. Many Secret Oath backers thought she made a premature move into a taxing pace to battle with Nest in the CCA Oaks, which explained the lack of punch late.

In the Alabama, Luis Saez gave Secret Oath a slightly more patient ride into a slower pace, which is a strategy that ironically worked against them here. Instead of getting caught up in a four-way battle for the lead, this time Secret Oath settled about four lengths off the leader.

The long-shot pacesetter She’s Keen set initial fractions of 24.39 seconds, 49.44 and 1:14.37, with Nest only a half-length behind for the latter two fractions.

Nest gradually took over the front from the long shot on the far turn. But Secret Oath started to move forward as well, and she found a path between the new leader Nest and Goddess of Fire as they rounded the turn. All three fillies went wide as they hit the top of the stretch, with Nest holding a small advantage.

At that point, Irad Ortiz Jr. visibly began to ask Nest without using the stick. Nest responded and opened up on both Secret Oath and Goddess of Fire in an instant. By mid-stretch, Nest had four lengths on Secret Oath, who had more energy for the last part of the race this time because of the slower pace and the fact she moved forward while approaching the far turn, rather than contest the lead as in the CCA Oaks.

Despite the different race dynamics, Nest still won the race by 4 1/4 lengths.

Nest finished the 10 furlongs in 2:03.14 with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The figure is slower than her 104 Beyer Figure in the CCA Oaks, but a slower pace tends to promote slower figures.

As for the Nest vs. Secret Oath “rivalry,” Nest has clearly beaten Secret Oath in small field with a fast pace and now in a medium-sized field with a slow pace. Visually and on paper, Nest runs on a different level from Secret Oath. She has nothing left to prove against 3-year-old fillies.  

When Secret Oath won the Kentucky Oaks by two lengths over Nest, there was little disagreement over Secret Oath’s standing as the best filly. But Nest’s form went through a transformation during Triple Crown season when she ran second in the Belmont Stakes. After the Belmont came Nest's dominating wins in the CCA Oaks and Alabama. 

Nest still needs to prove herself against older fillies and mares. If the connections want to shoot for the stars, this filly is fast enough to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Classic against the best males. In fact, the 1 1/4 miles of the Classic benefits Nest more than nine furlongs.

If not the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January might be a good spot for Nest to test the waters a second time.

This blog recommended Gerrymander as an alternative to Nest. It turns out hitting the exacta for a $4 payoff was as easy as putting Secret Oath in second again underneath Nest. Earning four dollars for $1 might not seem like a huge deal, but players who put hundreds of dollars into a straight exacta scored big. This type of race is not for smaller bettors. 

Secret Oath needs to find a Breeders’ Cup prep race without Nest if she wants to win. From a visual standpoint, it seems like she will benefit from taking a break when the season ends. She has had a long campaign.

Goddess of Fire turned in a good race relative to expectations for a 22-1 shot. The third-place finish in the Alabama will look fantastic on her resume.

Gerrymander disappointed bettors by fading to fifth in the stretch at 5-1. She had run great in her second start off a layoff by taking the Mother Goose Stakes (G2) at Belmont. But in this case, she offered nothing late.

Even though Gerrymander is a half-sister to the marathoner Lone Rock, perhaps Into Mischief on the top side means 1 1/4 miles is too far. But then again, she probably needs more races. The Alabama was only her third start of the year.

Wherever Nest goes, she probably will offer bettors an awful price unless she runs against males. But from a fan standpoint, Nest is wonderful to watch.